1. Adrian Peterson:
Adrian Peterson is the consensus number one running back by all experts and is projected as the number one overall pick as well. Make no mistake about it, Peterson is an absolute stud and is only entering his third year. The third year is where most players really start to reach their full potential and I expect huge production out of Peterson this year. He finished third in scoring amongst all fantasy running backs but I see him reaching the top spot in 2009. He led the league in rushing with 1,760 yards and also in yards from scrimmage with over 1,800 yards total rushing. Peterson has a big, explosive offensive line to run behind and the Vikings have an added more talent up front. Another reason why I think AP is going to be the top back is that the Vikings will now have a legitimate passing game to keep opposing teams honest. The presence of Brett Favre is going to be great for Peterson’s production and the drafting of Percy Harvin gives the Vikings another playmaker for defenses to key on. In my mind, there’s no doubt that Peterson is the best back in football and his touchdown total should go way up this year as the offense will be much improved as a complete unit. If you get the first pick in your draft, take Peterson.
2. Michael Turner:
Michael Turner was on my radar last year as a great second running back for my fantasy team and boy did he produce. Turner who finally got the chance to be a starter after backing up LaDainian Tomlinson proved he is one of the league’s top backs. He finished second in scoring amongst all fantasy backs with 1,699 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. I don’t expect a drop off with Turner at all as I think the Falcons offense is going to be even better than it was a year ago. Matt Ryan is only going to get better at the quarterback position and the addition of Tony Gonzalez gives defenses another key player to account for in the passing game. The only knock on Turner is his lack of receiving ability as he had only six catches but with the amount of carries he gets, he will rack up plenty of points for fantasy owners. In points per reception leagues, he may drop a little but I still like him as the number two fantasy back as he outshined LT last year after living in his shadow for five years. He’s the number one threat on this offense and should be a stud again this year.
3. Maurice Jones-Drew:
Maurice Jones-Drew is getting a lot of attention this year from fantasy experts as he is looking to prove he is worth the 32 million dollars the Jaguars are going to pay him over the next four years. Jones-Drew finished 9th amongst fantasy running backs in ’08 but his numbers seem bound to improve drastically as he will not be sharing the ball with anyone else now that Fred Taylor is gone. He rushed for 1,389 yards and 12 touchdowns on only 197 carries. There’s no doubt that Jones-Drew is the man in Jacksonville now and I expect him to get over 250 carries this year. That will lead to plenty of more rushing yards and more touchdowns as well. The other key factor that makes Jones-Drew a top tier fantasy back is that he is a great receiver out of the backfield. He led all running backs in receiving yards with 565 yards. I know Torry Holt is not the same player he was a few years ago but his presence should take some heat off of Jones-Drew. If a guy can put up the kind of numbers Jones-Drew did last year splitting time, just imagine what he can do as the full time back in Jacksonville. I’m projecting a big year from Maurice Jones-Drew.
4. DeAngelo Williams:
Believe it or not but DeAngelo Williams was the number one fantasy running back a year ago topping Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in points scored. He had 20 total touchdowns and rushed for over 1,500 yards. Some fantasy experts are down on Williams because he does split carries with Jonathan Stewart and has only turned in one good season in his three years in the league but not me. I think this guy is an absolute stud and will be a top five back for sure. Even though he split time with Stewart, he still had 273 carries and Stewart has been hampered by injury thus far this pre-season. I think if Williams plays like he did last year, Stewart won’t be getting 40% of the carries like he did a year ago but it is a concern and that’s why I have him below Jones-Drew and Michael Turner. It is possible that Williams won’t repeat what he did last year but I still think he will have a big year and is worthy of the number four ranking of fantasy running backs.
5. Matt Forte:
Matt Forte was one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy football season in 2008. He finished fourth amongst all running backs in fantasy scoring as a ROOKIE and has all the tools to get better and better. Forte rushed for over 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns a year ago but was also a major threat in the Bears passing game. He caught 63 balls for 477 yards and also tacked on two receiving touchdowns. I look for Forte to improve upon his touchdown total as the signing of Jay Cutler is going to make the Bears offense much more potent. Forte will have a lot more opportunities to pound the ball into the end zone on the goal line because the Bears are going to score more points this year. There isn’t much not to like about this guy who is entering just his second season with an offense that has a legitimate quarterback who can stretch the field and keep defenses honest. In points per reception leagues, Forte is even more valuable because he is a great receiver and Cutler will definitely use him in the passing game. Forte is a top 5 runner in my book, no doubt about it.
6. Chris Johnson:
Chris Johnson was also another pleasant surprise as a rookie last year for fantasy owners. He rushed for 1,228 yards and nine touchdowns in his first year on just 251 carries. Johnson averaged a whopping 4.9 yards per carry and is in line for more work this season. Jeff Fischer has stated publicly that he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as often as possible especially out in open space. This should cut into the production of Lendale White who split carries with Johnson a year ago. The only concern about Johnson is the fact that White might still get the goal line carries but there have been rumors that Johnson is in line to get more work in that area as well. The other thing I like about Johnson is that the Titans grabbed wide receiver Nate Washington to upgrade the passing game. Washington was a solid contributor in Pittsburgh and is another weapon for opposing defenses to key in on. All in all, this is a guy with tremendous speed and he has a ton of upside heading into his second year. He put up great numbers last year and if he gets more opportunities to run the ball and score this year, he’ll be a great fantasy running back.
7. LaDainian Tomlinson:
LaDainian Tomlinson believe it or not was somewhat of a disappointment last year to fantasy owners as he was the consensus number one overall pick. However, he was hampered by toe and groin injuries throughout the season which seemed to be the cause of his decline in fantasy production. Despite battling through the injuries, he still rushed for 1,110 yards and 11 touchdowns. It does seem that LT might be slowing down a bit as he has been pounding the rock for many years now. The word out of training camp is that he is 100% healthy and that will be the key for Tomlinson to be a top five back in 2009. I don’t think Sproles is going to be a threat to steal carries and this offense is still going to through Tomlinson as long as he is healthy. Tomlinson is a bit of risk as he is showing signs of wear and tear but I think he has at least one more good year left in him and is worthy of the number seven ranking of fantasy backs.
8. Steve Slaton:
Slaton is a guy I am extremely high on this year. As a rookie, he rushed for almost 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns on just 268 carries. There is no doubt that Slaton is the main man in Houston this year and he will be a major factor in a very good offense. I think Matt Schaub is primed to bust out and have a big year. Andre Johnson is one of the best receivers in football which takes attention away from Slaton and doesn’t allow defenses to stack the box with eight guys. Slaton is an explosive player on an explosive offense and entering his second year has tremendous potential. Slaton really came into his own late in the year rushing for over 100 yards in four of the last seven games of the season and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. He will get more of the work this year and thus more fantasy production. This guy is a potential stud and should be even better than a year ago.
9. Frank Gore:
Frank Gore didn’t fare as well as most fantasy owners thought he would last year as he only rushed for 1,036 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, Gore is a duel threat back as he caught 43 passes for 373 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest concern over the last few years with Gore has been his durability. In order for him to be a top ten back, he has got to stay on the field. The good news for potential Gore owners is that new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye is going to run his offense through Gore. If he can hold up, he will have a ton of touches both as a runner and receiver. He’s the main man in San Francisco and if he can stay healthy, he will put up big numbers in Frisco this year. Another concern is the lack of playmakers around Gore. The addition of Michael Crabtree would help if he would just sign already but the 49ers are heading into the season as if Crabtree won’t be there. Defenses will stack the box against Gore but that is nothing new. If they can find consistent quarterback play to take heat off Gore, he has the potential to be a top 10 back.
10. Brandon Jacobs:
Brandon Jacobs could be the steal of the second round in most fantasy football drafts. In just 13 games he ran for 1,089 yards and 15 touchdowns. With the departure of Derrick Ward, he is the main man in New York and will get a lot more than 219 carries a year ago. Jacobs averaged 5.0 yards per carry in ’08 and with a bigger workload his numbers could explode this season. The biggest concern for Jacobs is that the Giants lack a big play receiver. They need Steve Smith and rookie Hakeem Nicks to step up in order to make defenses worry about the pass and not just focus on stopping Jacobs. All in all, Jacobs is in the prime of his career and has proven that he is an absolute stud even while splitting carries. The departure of Ward is huge for Jacobs’ owners as I see him improving upon his yards and touchdowns from a year ago especially if he plays in all 16 games. If he can stay healthy, he has potential to be a premier fantasy back
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