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What have we learned as we head into Week 3 College Football?

September 15, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

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UCLA is much improved

UCLA is out to a 2-0 start both straight up and against the spread. In week 1, they defeated San Diego State 33-14 as an 18 point home favorite. Then they went on the road to play Tennessee as a double digit underdog and won the game outright 19-15. While the offense has struggled a bit, the defense has been superb in the first two weeks of the season. In two games they have given up an average of 242 yards per game and just 77 yards a game on the ground. If Kevin Prince can step up his game, UCLA could definitely be bound for the post-season and maybe pull off some upsets in the Pac 10 conference. All in all, Rick Neuheisel appears to have his team back on track and primed to make a run at a bowl game. See Week 3 Football Picks

Michigan State is overrated

Michigan State opened the season with a cupcake game against Montana State where they won handily 44-3. But last week they were favored by 14.5 points at home against Central Michigan and wound up losing the ball game outright. They were out-gained by 102 yards and lost 29-27. The secondary was absolutely terrible as they gave up 352 yards through the air to Central Michigan. The Spartans are also feeling the loss of star tailback Javon Ringer as they were only able to muster 101 yards rushing for an average of 3.4 yards per carry. Michigan State could be in deep trouble this week against Notre Dame and their potent passing attack. If Dan LeFeavour can put up over 350 yards passing, how many will Jimmy Claussen put up? See Week 3 Football Picks

Virginia is a definite go against team

Virginia opened the season up with a 26-14 loss to Division IAA William and Mary. Then last week, they got absolutely manhandled by TCU in a game that wasn’t as close as the 30-14 score indicated. TCU controlled the game on both sides of the ball and we must point out that both of Virginia’s embarrassing losses came at home. The Cavs have no consistent quarterback and their defense has been extremely poor as well. Al Groh is on the hot seat and I think this will be his final year because this team is flat out bad. Expect Virginia to struggle mightily in ACC conference play. If you can find a reasonable number, go against the Cavaliers. See Week 3 Football Picks

Filed Under: Football Picks Update - Sports Betting Tips, NCAAF Betting News Tagged With: , ,

Betting Advice-Buying Hooks on Key Football Point Spreads

September 5, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment
NFL Odds

NFL Odds

The scoring system in both college and pro football is very unique and unlike any other sport. We all know that the most common numbers of scoring at a particular time of a football game are three and seven as most points come from field goals and touchdowns plus the extra point try. If you look back at all the games over the last ten years, you will find that approximately 2/3 of games are decided by the following numbers: 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, and 14. These are your key numbers for football because of the way the scoring system is set up most games will be decided by one of those numbers.

Now how can we take advantage of that you might ask? Well, the emergence of off-shore sports books and their willingness to let you buy points for increased juice, you can buy ½ points when they are presented on one of the key point spreads.

I cannot stress this enough but when you like a team that is favored by 3½, 6½, or 7½, it is absolutely crucial that you buy a ½ point in order to get the line down to one of the key numbers I have discussed earlier. By doing so, you will have to pay 10 cents on the dollar in juice. Therefore if you bet $100 on a team who is minus 3½ but you buy them down to minus 3, you will be risking $120 instead of $110. But trust me, that extra $10 is a cheap price to pay in order to reduce your line because there is a strong chance that your team might win by only 3 points. By buying that half point, you eliminate the chance of getting beat by the nasty hook.

So my advice is this: If your line is a half point higher than one of the key point spread numbers in football wagering, ALWAYS buy the hook for the -120 vigorish. If you push even once a year because of you’re savvy intuition to buy down a spread, it will be worth the extra juice you will be paying throughout the year. Also, some sports betting professionals will even still buy down a half point when the point spread is exactly on one of the key numbers discussed. Therefore if your team is minus 3 points, you can buy them down to 2½ and still get the win if your team is victorious by a field goal margin.

Filed Under: Football Picks Update - Sports Betting Tips, NCAAF Betting News Tagged With: ,