(This is a guest post by TrevRogers.com reader Ryan Knox. Want to submit an article? Send to trev@trevrogers.com)
The 2010 NFC Championship Game will feature the Minnesota Vikings traveling to the Superdome to play the number 1 seed New Orleans Saints as 4.5 point underdogs. The over-under total points for the game are listed at 52.5. Both teams will meet coming off of blowout victories in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. On Saturday, New Orleans routed the Arizona Cardinals 45-14. The Saints had over 400 yards in total offense, dominated the time of possession, and made life for Kurt Warner vey difficult for about 3 hours. Minnesota was equally impressive in their 34-3 victory against Dallas. Sure, Romo did about everything possible to give Minnesota the victory with 3 fumbles, 2 of which were lost, and 1 interception, but still, Farve looked much closer to 30 than 40 with his 4 touchdowns and their defensive front putting pressure on Romo all game with 6 sacks.
As any compulsive gambler can do, we all over analyze games. It seems like everybody has a system involving highly complex algorithms and mathematical formulas to analyze games and convince themselves that they have a better than 60% chance of winning this game. The NFC championship game will be no different for all the gamblers out there looking for that edge. This week, we have done the work and put in the man hours for you, all in hopes of finding that “edge” for our readers. Folks, this game really is very simple, Minnesota is bad on the road and New Orleans is as good as any team in the league when they are playing at home. Yep, home-road splits will tell anybody all there is to know about these two teams.
The 12-4 Minnesota Vikings were without question the 2nd best team in the NFC…when playing at home. Their 8-0 record in the Metrodome is a testament to what type of team they can be with the crowd behind them. On the road, this is not the 2nd best team in the conference. They resemble a team that is indicative of their 4-4 record, very average. On the road the Vikings have lost 4 of their last 5 road games including their last 3 in the regular season to the Bears, Panthers, and Cardinals; not exactly murderers row. As a team, Minnesota scores 5 points less, averaging 26 points per game and gives up 5 more points a game, 23.5 points per game on the road. The rushing offense, lead by Adrian Peterson who remains without a 100 yard game since week 10 of the regular season, drops nearly 30 yards a game, going from 130.6 to 106.5 rushing yards. The defensive line, which served them well against Dallas with 6 sacks, also suffers a steep decline in production on the road. Averaging 3.4 sacks at home, the Vikings still manage to pressure the quarterback, but they average just over 2.5 sacks per game. As expected, most teams play worse on the road and Minnesota is no exception.
Much of the Vikings poor road play can be attributed to their quarterback, Brett Farve. There is no denying, even to the Farve haters, that Brett had an MVP like season. However, looking at our home-road splits, 5 of Brett’s 7 interceptions came on the road and only 12 of his 33 touchdown passes came away from the Metrodome. In addition, the road crowd seemed to bother both Brett and the offensive line. At home, Favre was only sacked 11 times. On the road, that number jumps to 23 sacks with Farve looking every bit his age at times. I certainly do not lay it all on his shoulders, but this team will go only as far as his arm can take them.
New Orleans is easily the most potent and explosive offensive in the league, averaging 33 points at home and gaining more than 423 yards per game. Drew Brees anchors the offense with a home quarterback rating of over 120 with 20 touchdowns to only 4 interceptions. The running trio of Bush, Bell, and Thomas average more than 4.5 yards a carry at home this season. Minnesota will counter with a 2nd ranked rushing offense, but I am not sure any defense could have contained Reggie Bush and his 5 carry, 84 yard performance against Arizona. Looking at the defense, the Saints remain very average. However, an average defense, combined with the best offense in the league still makes it very difficult for opposing teams. This game could very well be a track meet, the problem is that the Vikings just do not have the horses to stay with New Orleans for 4 full quarters and they simply are not good enough defensively to slow them down.
The line currently has New Orleans as 4.5 point favorites where they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points. This season, the Saints are 9-8 ATS and 5-4 at home ATS. The Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game. The Saints are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
The Vikings are 10-6-1 overall ATS and 4-4 ATS on the road. Minnesota is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on field-turf. Versus teams with a winning record the Vikings are 4-1 ATS. Against the NFC, the Vikings are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11.
The total points for this game are 52.5. New Orleans is 8-9 O/U overall and 4-5 O/U at home. The O/U is such a crap shoot; take these stats with a huge grain of salt:
• Over is 4-0-1 in Saints last 5 playoff games.
• Under is 7-0 in Saints last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
• Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games as a home favorite. Over is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Minnesota is 8-9 O/U this season on 4-4 O/U on the road. Based on past trends, it would very much appear that Minnesota would play toward the UNDER this game.
• Under is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
• Under is 5-0-1 in Vikings last 6 playoff games.
• Under is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
• Under is 21-5 in Vikings last 26 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
2010 Vikings vs. Saints NFC Championship Pick:
On paper, this is what you want, the top 2 teams in the NFC Championship game but in reality, it is not! The Vikings will need a Tony Romo like performance from Drew Brees next Sunday if they have any hopes of staying with New Orleans. At home, New Orleans is just too much for any team this seasons.
The Saints will make this an easy cover. Jump on this spread early before there is any fear of this game reaching 5 to 6 points. New Orleans is just too much for anyone when playing at home. The O/U is always tough, just looking at how well both offenses were clicking this past week, I would be hard pressed to pick the UNDER despite Minnesota’s past O/U trends. Take the OVER but with far less confidence than with New Orleans covering the 4.5 points.
