(This is a guest post by TrevRogers.com reader Ryan Knox. Want to submit an article? Send to trev@trevrogers.com)
The 2010 AFC Championship game features the New York Jets against the Indianapolis Colts. The line currently has the Colts favored by 7.5 with the total points at 39. I strongly believe that the sooner we can play this game, the sooner we can all stop hearing new Rex Ryan sound bytes and over-blown media stories about Indy’s shot at redemption for a week 16 defeat. The question for the sports bettor is simple, can the Jets run the ball effectively enough to control the clock and keep pressure off Mark Sanchez? Also, is the New York Jets defense good enough to stop Peyton Manning?
Mark Sanchez is just not capable of winning games with his arm. If at any point during this game the Jets trail by two or more scores, this game is over. The Jets will lean heavily on their league leading running game which averaged 172.3 yards per game. Shonn Greene has been the feature back in the post season with 234 yards, averaging 6.4 and 5.6 yards per carry in the first two games. Then we have Thomas Jones who rushed for over 1400 yards during the regular season. It is without question a formidable duo especially when the Indianapolis rushing defense is ranked 24th in the league, surrendering 126.5 yards per game.
Defensively, the Jets are playing amazing football, ranked #1 in overall defense, allowing a league low 258.3 yards per game. They finished 7th in rushing yards allowed at just over a 100 per game and 1st in passing defense, giving up only 157.8 yards per game. In addition, they gave up the fewest passing touchdowns, first downs, and yards per attempt. To top it all off, they gave up the fewest points per game, 14.7. Again, all very suffocating and dominating in any number of ways, but the Colts still have a Peyton Manning lead offense that teams have yet to contain. Despite the defensive numbers, the Jets will not be that exception.
Listing off Peyton Manning’s accolades and accomplishments is almost useless at this point; this year’s MVP is proof enough with his 33 touchdowns and 4500 yards passing. The Colts passing offense was every bit as good as the Jets defense, ranking in the top 6 in almost every significant passing category. In addition and in typical Manning fashion, he was sacked the fewest times in the league, averaging less than 1 per game at .8 this season. Rex Ryan will probably counter with a number of exotic blitz packages, in an attempt to “confuse” Manning and his 118.5 QB rating against the blitz. Manning, unlike any other quarterback has that innate ability to win games solely on his own. Week 2, at Landshark Stadium, Manning single handedly beat Miami while only having the ball for a combined 14:53, the lowest amount of time for a team to win since 1977. Passing for 2 touchdowns and leading his team to a go ahead touchdown, Manning becomes the exception to many rules.
In Week 16 these teams played, giving us a preview of what to expect…kinda. The Colts gift wrapped a victory when they pulled their starters after 2.5 quarters. However, we can take away much from the game. First, the Colts were leading 16-10 at the time they pulled their starters. Second, the Jets only touchdown was by way of a 106 yard kickoff return by Brad Smith. Third, neither Greene nor Jones was particularly effective until after the Colts starters were benched. Lastly, Manning’s line for the game, 14-21, 192 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, 0 sacks, and 16 points. Proving yet again, that despite how good the Jets may be, Manning and the Indianapolis offense remain better.
The line currently sits at Indianapolis -7.5 points. This season the Colts are 11-5-1 ATS and 4-4-1 at home ATS. The Jets are 11-7 ATS and 6-3 on the road ATS.
Indianapolis Colts ATS trends:
Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
Indianapolis is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets ATS trends:
NY Jets are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games
NY Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
NY Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
NY Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total points for the game are sitting at 39. The Colts are 9-8 overall and 4-5 at home O/U. The Jets are 8-9-1 overall and 4-5 on the road O/U.
Indianapolis Colts O/U trends:
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
New York Jets O/U trends:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Jets-Colts AFC Championship Prediction:
I’m bucking the head-to-head trends because I don’t care too much for what teams have done in the past. Manning and the Indianapolis offense will be too much for the Jets defense over 4 quarters. The Jets will need to find ways to score and move the ball outside of their running backs and since Sanchez cannot provide that spark, they lose. It really is very simple. For the points, play the UNDER for this game. The Jets do have a number 1 rated defense combined with a Colts offense that seems to manage just enough points to win and not much more, should make this an easy UNDER bet.
