NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers
-1-110
  at  BOVADA
in 12h

49ers -1 1.1* Free Play 

Seattle has not faced a better team on the road this season.  They are 2-3 on the road this year and the 49ers had this game circled since their playoff loss last year.  The home team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings and I just think the 49ers are still flying under the radar where the Seahawks have not been nearly as dominant as they were a year ago.  Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the 49ers have only been home 2 of the last 6 meetings and they won both of those games. 

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NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts
Washington Redskins
+10½-130
  at  5DIMES
in 3d

1* Free Play Washington Redskins.

RG III and company kept it close in San Francisco last weekend and I think the offensive unit will have a much easier time moving the ball against the Colts; while I won’t go so far as to call for an outright upset, I do believe this is too many points to be giving up to this hungry visiting side. Washington is just 3-8, but its overall stats simply aren’t that horrible. 7th overall in passing, 16th in rushing yards, 10th in opponent passing yards and 11th in opponent rushing yards. How about the Colts? Indianapolis is No. 1 in the league in passing, but just 17th in rushing yards. It’s also dismal defensively, 27th in opponent passing yards and 17th in opponent rushing yards. Washington will have its opportunities on offense today. The Colts are on the road in Cleveland the following week, so this doesn’t set up as a “look ahead” spot, but note Andrew Luck and the Indinapolis offensive line looked pretty shaky vs. the Jaguars, Luck finished 21 of 32 for just 253 yards with one TD pass and ran eight times for 49 yards; but note that he was sacked five times, fumbled three times and lost two, all in the first half. As a situational handicapper, these are the types of suspect lines I always keep my eyes open for, consider a second look at WASHINGTON in this one.

AAA Sports

NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons
Arizona Cardinals
-2½-108
  at  PINNACLE
in 3d

Arizona Cardinals -2.5

With last weeks lose to the Seahawks the Cardinals have to win games to stay atop the NFC West. The Falcons are 0-6 when Matt Ryan throws a pick, and I dont see how he can come out of this game without one. The Cardinals defense will again play well enough to overcome their offensive struggles. Cardinals win a big game on the road.

Pick= Cardinals -2.5

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NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Total
46 un-110
  at  BOVADA
in 3d

FREE NFL Over-Under SUNDAY  (11-30-14)

SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE  (1:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON UNDER 46 -110  (NFL)

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NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Philadelphia Eagles
+3+105
  at  5DIMES
in 8h

Thursday's Free NFL Pick  ---Philadelphia Eagles +3---

This is a bad spot for the Cowboys, who are coming off a tough division game on the road on Sunday Night Football, which they had to use a lot of energy to rally for a win in the 2nd half. Now they have a short week of rest to face one of the most explosive offenses in the league that play at a ridiculous pass. Dallas defense has been better than expected this season, but I think this is a spot where they struggle to contain the Eagles and all their weapons. Most importantly, I look for the Cowboys to wear down quickly, which should lead to a lot of big plays. While Dallas should be able to move the ball against Philadelphia's defense, I just don't see them scoring enough. I'll take the points on what I feel is the better team in this matchup.

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NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
-3-114
  at  PINNACLE
in 8h

 

 

FREE Thanksgiving NFL Play

Philly @ Dallas  - 3

There is where Sanchez meets his match at QB in my opinion, against an aggressive Dallas defense that played terrible on Monday Night Football. Sanchez’s 2 wins came against Carolina and Tennessee (hardly impressive)  and I cannot trust him to win a meaningful game against a team like Dallas on the road, and Dallas has found ways to win all season, versus last year when they found ways to lose. Dallas was down double digits on Monday on the road and pulled out a win.  Look for Dallas to balance the attack and pass more than usual because Philly cannot stop the pass and Bryant and Witten will have a big day, and thankfully Romo has NOT been a turnover machine like years past.  Dallas ranked 13th against the run so Sproles and McCoy should be contained somewhat in what should be a high scoring game. Dallas home field on a national TV game is worth 2 points here and I think Dallas is 3-6 points better anyway.  It won’t come easy.

One thing is the fact here that Dallas looked very sloppy on defense against a the paltry New York Giants team and they traveled, and now have a short week and that usually is go against spot and oddsmakers reflect that, and yet Dallas installed as a 3 point favorite here.  Dallas has not covered a Thanksgiving Day football game which is annually for them in the past 3 years and I think this is the year they get it done. 

As of Tuesday 90% of the action on this game was on the Over, which is now 54.5 but oddsmaker sources say this line will be at 56 by game time and that might be worth a look as well, but get on it early.  No doubt both teams will trade some punches on the scoreboard.  The Over trends here are unreal. 

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NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Total
47 ov-108
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

I'm recommending a play on the Over on Thursday.  While Detroit has been relying on their defense to stay in games, the job has become tougher with Nick Fairley sidelined.  The Lions are no longer getting to the opponent's QB and when Jay Cutler has time he can be dangerous.  In fact, the Bears are 4-0 when he doesn't thrown an interception.  I expect Chicago to test the Detroit defense, but I also expect the Lions' offense to find success with their fine receivers matched-up against a Bears' defense that ranks 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per contest. Chicago has allowed 31 points or more in four of their last six games and they're on a 20-7 Over run on the road.  The series has gone Over in four of the last five meetings in Detroit and we expect more of the same in this one.  I'm recommending a play on the Over between the Bears & Lions on Thursday.  Happy Thanksgiving and best of luck to us.  Scott Spreitzer.

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NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
-6-113
  at  PINNACLE
in 3d

The Ravens went to the Super Dome and beat the Saints as our "Monday Night Game of the Year." Now they'll host a Chargers team that's on a 2-3 losing skid, with their only 2 wins coming against over-matched foes in St. Louis (4-7) and Oakland (1-10). The Ravens are 7-4 on the season, but with ALL 4 teams in their AFC North division owning winning records, they need a home win Sunday to keep pace in their division race. Expect them to get that win as they're 5-0 SU & ATS as favorites against the AFC West behind HC John Harbaugh. Lay the points with the Ravens, who have won 4 STRAIGHT home games- They're not just winning at home, but blowing out their opponents as those four home victories came by 14, 20, 22 & 28 points!

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NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
Total
58 un-105
  at  BOVADA
in 3d

Recommendation: Take the Under

NFL Totals don’t get much higher than this, with the current Over/Under posted in the 58/58.5 range for Sunday’s Patriots – Packers clash.  And I can certainly understand why this total is posted in this range – we’re looking at two teams that rank #1 and #2 in points scored this season; two teams with elite QB’s playing at the top of their game; and two teams that are a combined 12-2 to the Over since the beginning of October.

But all of that is most assuredly factored into this inflated number – the bookmakers and the betting markets aren’t flying blind at this late stage of the season.  Game temperatures at Lambeau Field are expected to be below freezing at kickoff, with the lookahead weather forecast showing the potential for foggy conditions as well (never a good thing for either downfield passing game).  And both teams are likely to emphasize the run on Sunday, efforting to control the clock, control the gameflow and keep the opposing elite quarterback off the field.

And make no mistake about it – we’re talking about two Super Bowl caliber defenses here!  Both the Packers and the Patriots rank among the top dozen NFL defenses according to Football Outsiders DVOA rankings.  Green Bay hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game on this field since Week 2.  They’ve held nine of their last ten foes to 24 points or less.  Cornerbacks Tremon Williams and Sam Shields have been stellar all year; while safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix have kept nearly everything in front of them.

The Patriots are a team capable of changing their gameplan completely from one week to the next.  Two weeks ago, New England spent more than half the game in a power run formation with six offensive linemen, grounding out yards against the Colts.  Last week, the Pats opened the game with a 52-13 pass-to-run ratio before garbage time against the Lions.  In this particular matchup, I’m expecting a classic Belichick switcheroo back to a run-first attack; looking to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field as much as possible and to take advantage of a Packers run defense that’s a notch or two weaker than their pass D.

New England’s defense has held nine of their last ten opponents to 25 points or less, controlling the flow week after week.  And the strength of that defense, much like that of the Packers, is in the secondary.  Darrelle Revis and Alfonzo Dennard are both legitimate shutdown corners.  Safeties Devin McCourtey and Patrick Chung simply don’t get burned deep very often.  Last week in this space, I recommended a play on the Patriots Under vs. Detroit an it cashed thanks to the Pats keeping the Lions out of the end zone.  I don’t think New England keeps Green Bay out of the end zone here, but I’m certainly not expecting a shootout in which both teams approach 30 points, and that’s what it’ll take to cash an Over ticket.  Take the Under.

NFL  |  Nov 27, 2014
Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions
-7+102
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

FREE NFL PLAY THURSDAY  (11-27-14)

CHICAGO @ DETROIT  (12:30 PM EST)

PLAY ON: DETROIT -7 +102  (NFL)

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NFL  |  Nov 30, 2014
New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh Steelers
-4-110
  at  BMAKER
in 3d

FREE NFL PLAY SUNDAY  (11-30-14)

NEW ORLEANS @ PITTSBURGH  (1:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON: PITTSBURGH -4 -110  (NFL)

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