NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys
Total
54½ ov-110
  at  BMAKER
in 8h

*3 Star NFL Free Pick* The Indianapolis Colts defense has been subpar all year. I know DeMarco Murray is dinged up, but even if he doesn't go (he's probable) or is dinged up this Dallas team has lots of weapons. Dez Bryant has become one of the big playmakers in the NFL. The Cowboys have a lot to play for here, and I don't think we see them struggle on offense in this contest. The Colts offense has one of the best signal callers in the NFL in Andrew Luck. Luck does everything for his team. This Dallas defense may be a little better than last year, but they still aren't good. They have given up huge chunks of yardage on their home field against multiple opponents this year. Indianapolis should be able to put up plenty of points themselves. I see this one getting to at least the upper 50's. Take the over.

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
+12½-110
  at  BOVADA
in 5h

Jack's Free Pick Sunday: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12.5

This line is clearly inflated right now because the Packers have something to play for while the Buccaneers do not. Well, I would argue that Green Bay could be looking ahead to next week’s game against Detroit and overlooking the Buccaneers. Either way, I believe the value is with the double-digit home underdogs in this one. The betting public always backs the Packers, and that’s what has driven this line up higher than it should be.

All you have to do is check out how the Packers have fared on the road this season and you’ll be in love with the Buccaneers as well. Indeed, Green Bay is just 3-4 on the road this season. It is getting outscored by an average of 4.9 points per game on the road, and outgained by 47.3 yards per game. It averages just 21.1 points and 341.6 yards per game, while giving up 26.0 points and 378.9 points per game away from home.

Even the three road wins for the Packers have been close as they won by 3 points at Miami and by 3 at Minnesota.  They did beat the Bears by 21 on the road, but that game was much closer than the final score would indicate as the Bears actually outgained the Packers by 138 yards.  All five of Aaron Rodgers' interceptions this season have come on the road, where he's been held to under 210 yards passing four times in seven starts.  He's been limited to just 12 touchdown passes on the road as well.

While the Buccaneers have a poor 2-12 record, I have no doubt that they are better than their record indicates. They have simply been a victim of several close losses this season. Indeed, nine of the Bucs’ 12 losses this season have come by 10 points or less, including eight by 8 points or fewer, and seven by 6 points per less. They have gone 1-9 in games decided by 10 points or fewer.

Tampa Bay clearly has not quit on Lovie Smith. It continues to fight as it has only been beaten by more than 10 points once in its last eight games overall. It has a 6-point overtime loss to Minnesota, a 5-point road loss at Cleveland, a 27-7 win over Washington, a 1-point home loss to Cincinnati and a 2-point road loss to Carolina during this stretch, just to name a few. The Buccaneers have actually outgained four of their last seven opponents despite going 1-6 over that span. They will continue to be competitive Sunday.

The Packers are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. a team with a losing record. They have a tendency of playing down to their competition, and that has been evident by this trend. Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in its seven road games this season. Tampa Bay is 9-4-2 ATS in its last 15 games after gaining more than 150 rushing yards in its last game. The Bucs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the Packers, including 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings.  Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys
Total
55 ov-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 8h

Play OVER 55

For entertainment value the Cowboys vs. the Colts should be fantastic. Both of these teams can score and have lots of weapons. Better still both need the game for some sort of playoff seeding advantage so there will be no reason to take the foot of the gas.

Andrew Luck vs. Tony Romo will be a shootout that goes over the total with ease should make for some bit time excitement. You might want to load up on Dez Bryant and T.Y. Hilton in your fantasy pools too. Final 38 - 35

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Chicago Bears
+9½-120
  at  5DIMES
in 5h

.
On Sunday the free NFL System Play is on the Chicago Bears +8. Game 112 at 1:00 eastern. J. Cutler is benched and the line is not up over 8 points with Jimmy Clausen at Qb. Chicago should play much better as some of their players get the message that their inept play will cost them their jobs. The Bears fit some solid bounce back indicators here. Detroit and any road favorite off 3 or more wins are 0-6 to the spread vs a team off 2+ losses. The Bears have won 13 of 17 off a Monday night games and 7 of 8 if their opponent is off a win. The Lions are 0-6 ats off a win if they had no turnovers and could be looking ahead to next weeks showdown vs the Packers. The Lions are also 5-21 ats vs teams who allow 27 or more points per game and 0-9 at vs a team that allows 260 or more yards passing. Chicago is 11-2 ats at home with revenge for a loss by 14 or more points. Chicago may not win but they should get the cover. On Sunday we have another Powerful card led by the NFC West Game Game Of The Year and 3 More Big Sides including Colts and Cowboys. There are 4 plays in all and each have multiple perfect angles and at least one undefeated system. In Hoops its a Big 100% NBA Blowout system and a 91% NBA Totals System. NFL is tanked #1 for a 6th straight week on high end leader boards. Jump on now and put the power of the most innovative data in the industry on your side. For the free play take the 8+ points with Chicago. RV

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
+6½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 5h

Free Pick on Atlanta Falcons +

I think the value here is with the Falcons, as New Orleans has not been the same dominant team at home that we have seen in previous seasons. The Saints have lost each of their last 4 games at the Superdome, including an ugly 10-41 loss to Carolina in Week 14. I also think we are seeing a bit of an inflated line here after New Orleans cruised to a convincing win over Chicago in the national spotlight of Monday Night Football and Atlanta losing at home to Pittsburgh.

Couple of key things to note about both of those games. The Saints benefited from getting to face Chicago in their first game after they were officially eliminated from the playoffs. Anyone who watched that game, could see the Bears were lacking motivation. Atlanta on the other hand was in a big lookahead spot, where a win really didn’t help them a whole lot. They were also without their top offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones, who is expected to be back on the field against the Saints.

You could argue that the Falcons were fortunate to get a win at home against the Saints earlier this season, as Atlanta needed a last second 51-yard field goal from Matt Bryant to send the game to overtime. However, the Falcons outgained the Saints 568 to 472. This time around New Orleans will be without rookie wide out Bradin Cooks, who had 7 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown and star tight Jimmy Graham has not been the same of late. Graham did catch 5 passes for 87 yards against Chicago, but has been held without a touchdown in each of his last 3 games.

Getting Jones back is huge for the Falcons. Jones had caught 21 passes for 448 yards and 2 touchdowns in his previous two games before sitting out last week. He also torched the Saints secondary earlier this season with 7 catches for 116 yards. I know the Saints defense played well against Chicago, but I again think that had to do with Chicago’s state of mind. I just don't believe the New Orleans defense miraculously got that much better in one week, as this is the same unit that allowed 497 yards of total offense to a below average Carolina offense in Week 14. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense to keep this one close enough to cover and potentially win outright.

Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the NFC South and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 6 or more yards/play in each of their last 2 games. New Orleans is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 after passing for more than 250 yards in their previous game.

Adding to all of this is a strong system favoring a fade of the Saints. Home favorites in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 ppg) at least 9 games into the season are just 23-53  ATS since 1983 after allowing 3 points or less in the first half of their last game. That's a 70% system in favor of the Falcons. Take Atlanta!

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
-10-115
  at  BMAKER
in 5h

1* Free Play Packers.

Last week I gave you a free play on the Jacksonville Jaguars, an easy winner that almost took the game outright. This week I’m looking at a larger favorite, but one which I think has a number of different situational, motivational and strong trend based reasons working in its favor; I definitely feel that the Green Bay Packers are worth a second look in this spot. 

The Packers five game win streak would get snapped in last week’s listless 21-13 setback at Buffalo, however take note that it was the second straight week that Green Bay failed to cover the spread. A date vs. the inconsistent Buccaneers is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though in my opinion, Tampa is coming off its fourth straight SU loss in last week’s 19-17 setback at Carolina. The Packers are in a dog fight with Detroit for the NFC North’s top seed, added incentive today to take full advantage of their weaker opponent. Note that Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a favorite, while Tampa Bay is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after scoring 20 points or less in three straight games. At this time of year, “situations” become very a important tool for handicappers, consider a play on GREEN BAY this weekend.

AAA Sports

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers
-11½-107
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

I’m usually not big on laying this kind of chalk in the NFL. If there was ever a spot to pull the trigger, this is it. The Packers are coming off of a tough loss to the Bills last week, and there’s no doubt in my mind that Aaron Rodgers will carve up this Bucs defense. Green Bay has a lot to play for here, as they have the possibility to clinch a playoff spot and stay alive for the #1 seed in the division. People seem to be making a big deal, claiming that the Packers can’t play on the road. I’m just not buying it. Last week’s Bills team really gave them fits, but Tampa is nowhere close to that caliber of team.

The Bucs are the only team in the entire NFL that doesn’t have a win at home this season. They haven’t scored more than 17 points during a 4 game losing streak. Their defense has no shot at slowing Rodgers down, and since the offense can’t score this game is going to get ugly. We must also take into account the fact that Tampa is in the running for the #1 pick in next year’s draft. That’s much more important to them at this point in the season than trying to pull an upset. Take the Packers.  

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions
-7½+120
  at  5DIMES
in 5h

Detroit Lions -7.5

The Lions are playing a Bears team that is lifeless and is laying down. Jay Cutler was just reported to be benched. The Lions defense will own this one as Clausen is taking over for Cutler.

Pick= Lions -7.5

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Baltimore Ravens vs. Houston Texans
Baltimore Ravens
-4½-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) at Houston Texans 1:00 PM EST

Baltimore’s suspect secondary allows 68% completions and 216 PYPG.  Yet, it may go unscathed this week vs. the Houston Texans.  After injury to their top 3 signal callers, Houston plucked QB Keenum and installed him as their starting signal caller. Unless Case has an out of body experience, the 7-7 SU Texans, following their road loss at Indy, figure to say sayonara to the playoffs once again this year. Baltimore is a veteran team with Super Bowl experience. Last week, they exerted little emotion or effort in the 20-12 home win vs Jacksonville. Expect them to be very amped for a game they will be playing with need. Expect the offense to hold back nothing, as current Ravens’ OC Kubiak was fired as the Texans’ head man last season. Ravens, averaging 29 PPG L4 weeks, are expected to score a lot more than that today.

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona Cardinals
+9½-125
  at  5DIMES
in 12h

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Play Arizona, game 130.

At 11-3, Arizona owns the best record in the NFC with Seattle just one game behind them at 10-4. The Seahawks beat the Cardinals, 19-3 back on November 23. Since then, Seattle's defense has continued to dominate. The problem is that the Seahawks offense has sputtered, big-time. The Cardinals have backup QB, Ryan Lindley calling the plays here. Not a rookie anymore, Linley has become a mature, intelligent team player. With the NFC West lead on the line, I expect head coach Bruce Arians to get his chemistry-rich team up once again here. The Cardinals are 7-0 straight up at home, going 6-1ATS. With running back, Kerwyn Williams finding his stride, this will allow Lindley time to find his talented corps of receivers, Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown. The Arizona offense can eat up enough clock to stay in this game. On defense, the Cardinals will bring the sixth best rushing "D" in the league here and slow down the Seahawks only offensive threat in running back, Marshawn Lynch. With quarterback, Russell Wilson still struggling and the offense really spluttering in the pass, I don't expect Seattle to light up the scoreboard here. Arizona is 6-0 ATS their  L6 games played at home, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played in December, 12-3 ATS their L15 vs. the NFC, and 16-5 ATS their L21 games played overall. Take the points here. Play Arizona. Thank you.

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Total
46½ ov-108
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

This isn’t your Pittsburgh Steelers of the glory days. They relied on running the ball and a great D. This team scores a ton of points and the defense is far from the Steel Curtain, over the last three games in Pittsburgh, there has been a total of 218 points scored, or an average of 73 a game. Le'Veon Bell has emerged as one of the top backs in the league. He has been getting the job done and making big plays as both a runner and a receiver while Big Ben and Antonio Brown continue to make big plays in the passing game. The Steelers have allowed 20+ points in 12 of their 14 games played this season

The Chiefs have played Oakland and Arizona the last two weeks. Three weeks ago they played Denver which would be better comparison to the Steelers offense rather than Oakland or Arizona. Against the Broncos, they allowed 29 points. The Chiefs have some playmakers on offense themselves and should be able to put up points on this porous Steelers defense.     

Play on the OVER.

This is a 1* Free Play

NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs
+3-120
  at  BETONLINE
in 5h

I'm recommending a play on the Chiefs plus the points on Sunday.  Pittsburgh won a big one last weekend and the pressure is on as they look to catch and overcome Cincinnati in the AFC North.  But last week's win, at least the difference in the game, was an INT return for a TD by the Steeler defense.  Atlanta WR Harry Douglas messed up the rout and Pittsburgh made the Falcons pay.  But let's call it like it is - the Steelers' pass defense is not good. Let's also not fail to mention that Pittsburgh allowed Atlanta to gain over 7 yards per play...without Julio Jones and they have allowed their last five opposing QBs to register a combined passer rating of 102. They'll face an offense led by QB Alex Smith this week.  While it's not KC's M.O. to stretch defenses with a deep passing game, Smith can fire at this leaky defense with little fear of making costly mistakes.  Smith is not one to suffer meltdowns.  He'll also be helped by the 7th ranked rushing offense.  Look for KC to find running room even if Jamaal Charles is not 100%. We should note he is listed as probable, however, for the game.  Plus, Knile Davis can and does take some heat off of Charles.  Defensively, KC is strong at pressuring QBs without having to sell out.  They're 2nd in the NFL against the pass and rank 8th in total yards allowed per game.  We expect KC to put pressure on Big Ben with Tamba Hali and Justin Houston.  How strong has Houston been in 2014?  Well, J.J. Watt may get all the media attention with his 16 1/2 sacks and 46 tackles, but Houston has more, including 17 sacks and 50 tackles on the season.  The better defense in this matchup belongs to the Chiefs and their offense is less likely to make costly mistakes.  KC has also played one of the 10 toughest schedules in the NFL, while Pittsburgh has played the softest slate according to some factors.  Add it up and we recommend a play on the Chiefs plus the points as they look to extend their ATS record on the road to 12-4 under Andy Reid.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Minnesota Vikings vs. Miami Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings
+7-120
  at  BOVADA
in 5h

Only once in their last eight games have the Vikings lost by more than seven points and that was an eight-point loss.

The Dolphins are beat up physically and in a bad place mentally with their playoff hopes realistically dashed and third-year head coach Joe Philbin almost certainly out after missing the postseason once again.

Miami has been outscored by 56 points during the past seven quarters. The Vikings, on the other hand, are an improving team showing spunk under defensive whiz Mike Zimmer. He has greatly improved Minnesota's defense. Teddy Bridgewater is showing better command of the offense. The Dolphins' pass rush has ground to a near halt recording just two sacks during the last two games, while facing 69 pass attempts.

The Dolphins are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry during their last 31 rushing attempts. They are not a big-play passing team either. So this is too high of a spread for them to cover.  

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
+7-130
  at  5DIMES
in 5h

Play - Atlanta Falcons (Game 113).  

Edges - Falcons: 9-1 ATS last road game of the season; and 18-7 ATS off a SU loss of 7 or more points under Mike Smith, including 8-2 ATS in division games.  Saints: 0-5 ATS in last home games off a non-division game when facing a division opponent.  With New Orleans having not won a home game in almost two months (0-4 SUATS last four), and the Falcons in control of their playoff destiny, we recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.  Thank you and good luck as always. 

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NFL  |  Dec 21, 2014
Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys
-3½-105
  at  PINNACLE
in 8h

Sunday's NFL Free Pick ---Dallas Cowboys -3.5---

I believe the injury involving DeMarco Murray and the uncertainty if he will play, has created some great value here on the Cowboys. This is is a must-win game for Dallas, while the Colts are primed for a major letdown with not a whole lot to play for. While Indianapolis is technically still alive for a 1st round bye, they know that's not going to happen. New England or Denver would have to lose each of their last two games, as both hold the tiebreaker with a heads up win over the Colts. Indianapolis is going to be content with winning their division and will turn their primary focus to getting healthy for the playoffs. The other key here is that I think Dallas will have no problem moving the football even if Murray isn't able to play. The Colts are giving up 29.2 points and 394 yards per game on the road this season and will be facing a Cowboys offense that is averaging 27.2 ppg and 377 ypg. As good as Indianapolis has been against the spread, this is not the spot you want to be backing the Colts.

System - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points who are a strong rushing team that is averaging 125-150 ypg against an opponent that only averages 95-125 ypg on the ground are 79-43 (65%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. BET THE COWBOYS -3.5!