MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
-147
  at  BETONLINE
in 6h

Free Play for Thursday

Seattle Mariners -147

Bottom Line: Based on the line, oddsmakers don't expect the Angels to be on top of their game after a night of celebrating a division title.  Frankly, they'd have trouble beating King Felix even if they were on top of their game.  Hernandez has been nearly unhittable this season, going 14-5 with a 2.14 ERA.  The Angels can attest to that.  The Mariners are 3-0 in Hernandez's starts against them this season, and he's allowed just 3 earned runs in 21 2-3 innings in these starts.  The Mariners are 4-0 in Hernandez's last 4 starts versus the Angels going back to last season.  Weaver has been good, but he hasn't been as sharp as King Felix.  And, it is worth mentioning that the Angels are only 4-10 in Weaver's last 14 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet Seattle.

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Seattle Mariners
-147
  at  BETONLINE
in 6h

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Seattle Mariners -147

The Seattle Mariners (81-70) trail both the A's and Royals by two games for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They know that each game from here on out is essentially a must-win, and I certainly like their chances tonight with their ace on the mound.

The Los Angeles Angels (95-57) own the best record in baseball.  They just clinched the AL West with their victory last night coupled with an A's loss.  That makes this a massive letdown spot for them after celebrating in the clubhouse last night with champagne.

Felix Hernandez is having yet another Cy Young-caliber season.  He has gone 14-5 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 31 starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in his last three.  Hernandez is 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA in three starts against the Angels in 2014, allowing just three earned runs in 21 2/3 innings.

The Mariners are 8-2 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  Seattle is 6-1 in its last seven games as a road favorite.  The Mariners are 17-7 in Hernandez's last 24 starts.  The Angels are 4-10 in Weaver's last 14 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150.  Seattle is 4-0 in Hernandez's last four starts vs. Los Angeles.  Bet the Mariners Thursday.

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
-136
  at  BETONLINE
in 4h

Thursday's Free MLB Pick  ---St Louis Cardinals -136---

I was spot on with the Cardinals as my free pick yesterday and I'm coming right back with St Louis on Thursday. The Cardinals have a huge advantage in this one when it comes to starting pitching. St Louis will send out the red-hot Shelby Miller against the struggling Kyle Lohse.

Miller had an awful start to 2014, but he's came alive down the stretch and enters this matchup with a sensational 0.45 ERA and 0.700 WHIP over his last 3 starts. He's allows just 1 earned run over his last 20 innings of work. Lohse on the other hand has allowed 14 runs in his last 16 1/3 innings, as he comes in with a 7.71 ERA and 1.469 WHIP over his last 3 outings. Lohse also has a less than impressive 4.71 ERA on the road this season and is 3-7 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.479 WHIP over 12 career starts against St Louis.

Key Trends/System - Brewers are 5-19 in their last 24 road games after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less, 2-8 in their last 10 after scoring 2 runs or less, 1-9 in their last 10 road games and 3-11 in their last 14 following a loss. St Louis is 20-8 in their last 28 home games in the month of September and 21-8 in their last 29 as a home favorite. Add it up and that's a 88-27 (77%) system telling us to BET THE CARDINALS -136!

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
New York Yankees
-114
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

FREE PLAY for 9/18

New York Yankees -114

The Key: The Yankees are showing value at this affordable price given the success they've had at home against the Blue Jays.  The Yanks are 39-13 in their last 52 home games in the series, including 21-4 in their last 25.  Dickey has pitched well in his last three starts versus the Yankees but all three were at home.  He's lost his last two starts at Yankee Stadium while giving up seven runs in 15 innings.  Green has had a fantastic rookie season, posting a 3.57 ERA in 12 starts with the Yankees winning eight of those.  He has allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of his 12 starts, including eight of his last nine.  Take New York.

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
-1½-103
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5

I am not one to usually go with run lines but the Pirates are the hottest thing going in the NL right now and they walloped last place Boston last night. Gerrit Cole has won his last two starts and the last place Red Sox are not showing much life these days.

Pittsburgh still has plenty to play for as they look to close on St. Louis. They also want to have some momentum to heading into their weekend set with Milwaukee.  Take the Bucs on the run line to reap some value from this one.

Bucs RL, Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Total
7½ un-109
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

FREE MLB Over-Under THURSDAY  (9-18-14)

TORONTO @ NY YANKEES  (7:05 PM EST)

PLAY ON: UNDER 7.5 -109  (MLB)

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
-1½-103
  at  PINNACLE
in 3h

1* free play on the Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates are 10-5 in September so far, and they'll look to complete the sweep at home versus Boston tonight. The Red Sox have been out-scored 13-1 while losing the first two games of this series, and with a struggling pitcher on the mound, that trend is likely to continue tonight. 

Here are my keys to the game: 

1. Pitching - The Red Sox hand the ball to Brandon Workman, who is 0-9 over his last 10 starts. He was torched for six runs on six hits in just three innings in a loss to the Orioles in his most recent appearance. He's been slightly better on the road than he has been at Fenway, but still he's 1-3 with a 4.54 ERA in eight appearances away from Boston. The Pirates will counter with Gerit Cole, who has won his last two starts. 

2. Pirates Hot Bats - Neil Walker is 10 for 22 with two homers, three doubles and six RBIs in his last six games, and Josh Harrison is 9-for-23 with a pair of doubles and three RBIs during the first five games of this home stand. 

3. X-Factor - The Pirates have won six of their last seven overall, and all of those victories were in games decided by multiple runs. 

Selection: This is a play on the Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (Free)

MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
-120
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

9/18 06:10 PM MLB (959) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS (960) SAN DIEGO PADRES edit Take: (960) SAN DIEGO PADRES Reason: Your free pick for Thursday, September 18th comes in the National League as Philadelphia and the Padres battle in Petco Park in San Diego. San Diego is a huge park and Philadelphia is 3,000 miles from home, a tough situational spot. The Phillies are 17-36 in their last 53 road games vs. a team with a losing record. This Phillies offense is terrible and starter Kyle Kendrick (9-12, 4.72 ERA) has not been sharp on the road with a 3-6 record and a 5.11 ERA. The Phillies are 6-13 in Kendrick's last 19 road starts. The Padres are 23-8 in their last 31 home games. Starter Robbie Erlin has a 2.92 ERA at home and the Phillies have not faced him. The Padres are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 9-2 at home against a team with a losing record. Play the Padres!

MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Philadelphia Phillies
+117
  at  5DIMES
in 5h

This is a Free #MLB play on the Philadelphia Phillies. 

The Phillies will wrap up their series in San Diego tonight, and after winning Game 3, they can salvage a split in the finale. With San Diego sending a shaky young pitcher to the mound, the visitors look good as a dog. 

Robbie Erlin will come out of the bullpen to make the start, and he hasn't impressed in recent appearances. Erlin (3-4, 4.89 ERA) was rocked for seven runs on 14 hits over just seven innings in his last two outings. He has one win in four starts at PETCO this season, posting a 2.91 ERA in those games. 

The Phillies hand the ball to Kyle Kendrick, who has been very solid lately. Kendrick (9-12, 4.72 ERA) allowed one run on seven hits over 6 1/3 innings in a home win over Miami his last time out. He's 4-1 over his last five starts, and the Phillies have won seven of his last 10 appearances. He defeated the Padres earlier this season, allowing a pair of runs on seven hits over six innings in that game. 

San Diego ranks last in the major league's in all offensive categories, so you have to like Kendrick's chances of picking up a "W" tonight. 

Take PHI.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
-126
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

Free Pick on the San Diego Padres -

The Padres are showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Phillies. San Diego had won each of the first two games in the series before getting shutdown by Cole Hamels last night. With Kyle Hendricks taking the mound for Philadelphia in this one, I look for the Padres to bounce back and close out the series with a win. Kendrick is just 3-6 with a 5.11 ERA and 1.309 WHIP over 14 road starts in 2014.

I'll gladly take my chances on Robbie Erlin to out pitch Kendrick and guide San Diego to victory. Erlin has a 3.00 ERA and 1.042 WHIP over 4 home starts and comes in with a strong 2.45 ERA and 1.146 WHIP over his last 3 outings. In his only career start against the Phillies, Erlin held Philadelphia to just 2 earned runs on 4 hits over 6 1/3 innings.

There's a key system backing San Diego, as home teams who are hitting 2.55 or worse as a team after a stretch where they are hitting .225 or worse over their last 15 games are 70-27 over the last 5 seasons against an opposing starter with an ERA of 4.20 to 5.20. That's a 72% system in favor of the Padres. Take San Diego!

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MLB  |  Sep 18, 2014
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Total
7 un+102
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

On Thursday the free MLB Totals system play is on the Under in the Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals game at 8:15 eastern. Both teams have played under the total in 5 of their last 6 games. The Pitching match is a good one with Kyle Lohse taking on Shelby Miller. In his last 3 starts Miller has a solid 0.45 era and the Cards have won all 7 of his career starts vs the Brewers. St. Louis has played under in 5 of 7 at home off a home win where they scored 2 or less runs. Now for the total system. Play the under form home favorites of -140 or higher with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home win by 2+ runs and scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits. These games have averaged a shade over 5 runs and have stayed under 80% of the time the last 11 years. Look for these two to go under the total. On Thursday 3 Big plays are up. In NFL we have a Solid 90% System play with 8 power angles and in College Football the Triple system side on ESPN. In Bases a huge 41-2 Blowout system. Get on all three now and cash out with the most powerful data available. Foe the free play go under the total in the Brewers at Cardinals game. RV.