MLB  |  May 04, 2016
Yankees vs. Orioles
Orioles
-125
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

1* Free Play Baltimore Orioles.

The scuffling Yanks send CC Sabathia (1-2, 5.06 ERA) to the hill. The big southpaw took the loss in Texas on Wednesday after giving up three runs on five hits through six innings, striking out five and walking three. Sabathia has allowed exactly three runs in all four of his starts to open the year, the veteran though has not been able to finish five innings in two of those, which is why his ERA is so high. Sabathia’s inflated numbers and 15:11 K:BB ratio are poised to catch up to him and note, he was a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.18 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Tyler Wilson (1-0, 3.06), who gave up two runs and four hits and walk while striking out three over 4.2 innings in his last outing. Wilson has looked good in his limited time this year, note that he sported a 1.29 ERA at home in 2015. Wilson is still green, but we think he can match pace with the erratic Sabathia. The price is right in this one, consider Baltimore on Wednesday.

AAA Sports

MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Dodgers vs. Rays
Rays
-119
  at  PINNACLE
in 1h

Play - Tampa Bay w/Moore vs. Kazmir.

Edges - Rays: Matt Moore 5-1 overall last six home team starts; and 5-1 last six team starts during May. Dodgers: Scott Kazmir 0-4 last four team starts during May; and 1-4 career team starts versus Tampa Bay. With Moore in fine KW form with 35 K’s and 7 BB’s this season, we recommend a 1* play on Tampa Bay.  Thank you and good luck as always. 

 > Marc’s powerful database deliver another Killer Play on Tuesday’s NBA playoff card, backed with an amazing winning angle inside the game that has NEVER LOST the money in the playoffs over the last 25 years.  You know what to do!

And be sure to check back Wednesday for Marc's next WHITE HOT MLB best bet play where he is now 18-2 his last twenty MLB releases!

MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Red Sox vs. White Sox
White Sox
-133
  at  BMAKER
in 2h

*3 Star MLB Free Pick* The Boston Red Sox have crushed right handed pitching this year, but they have struggled against lefties. Boston ranks in the top five in the majors against right handed pitching in weighted on base average, but they rank in the bottom five in the majors in the same statistic against lefties.

Jose Quintana is one of the most underrated left handed pitchers in the game. The White Sox probably aren't as good as their record, but I see this as a good chance to play the team with the much better starter and the better bullpen for a discounted price. 

Take the Chicago White Sox. 

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MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Mariners vs. A's
A's
-114
  at  BMAKER
in 4h

Jack's Free Pick Tuesday: Oakland A's -114

The Oakland A's are showing solid value as only -114 home favorites over the Seattle Mariners Tuesday night.  They will be sending ace Sonny Gray to the mound to take down the struggling Hisashi Iwakuma of the Mariners.

Gray has gone 3-2 with a 3.81 ERA in five starts this season, including 2-1 with a 2.33 ERA in three home starts.  But what really stands out is that Gray is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in nine career starts against Seattle.

Iwakuma just hasn't been himself since returning from injury.  The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in five starts this season.  Iwakuma is also 5-4 with a 4.19 ERA in 10 career starts against Oakland.

The A's are 6-0 in Gray's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Mariners are 1-5 in Iwakuma's last six starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Oakland is 4-1 in Gray's last five home starts.  Bet the A's Tuesday.

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MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Mariners vs. A's
A's
-120
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

10* FREE MLB PICK (A's -120)

I was on the wrong end of Oakland's 3-4 loss on Monday with my free selection, but I'm staying on the A's bandwagon for Tuesday's matchup. Oakland is simply showing too much value at home with their ace Sonny Gray on the mound to pass up. Gray has a 2.33 ERA and 1.242 WHIP over 3 home starts and is 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 1.085 WHIP in 9 career starts against the Mariners. A's are a perfect 6-0 in Gray's last 6 home starts against a team with a winning record. Give me Oakland -120! 

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MLB  |  May 04, 2016
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins
Total
7½ un-110
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

Your free play for Wednesday, May 4, 2016 is in baseball as the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Marlins clash in Miami. Marlins Park is a huge park, great for pitchers. Arizona is in town with hard throwing Rubby De La Rosa going, on a nice roll. The team has won his last three starts allowing one run in 14 innings. De La Rosa dominated the Cardinals on Thursday, striking out 10 while allowing just two his and two walks over seven shutout frames. Miami is on a 4-0 run under the total at home and has ace Jose Fernandez going, with 40 strikeouts in 28+ innings. Fernandez struck out eight while limiting the Dodgers to two runs on five hits and three walks in six innings en route to a 5-3 win Thursday. He has a 1.55 ERA at home the last three-plus years and the under is 5-1 in his last six starts with six days of rest. The Under is also 5-2 when Fernandez starts at home against a team with a losing record. When these teams meet the under is 14-5, including 5-2 under here in Miami. Play Arizona/Miami Under the total.

MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Braves vs. Mets
Mets
-215
  at  BMAKER
in 1h

Pure Lock has a TOP MLB play available on Tuesday on the Cubs/Pirates. Pure Lock is mainly known for his selectivity in handicapping all sports and normally releases one pick per sport per day or passes! QUALITY over Quantity here.

MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Dodgers vs. Rays
Total
7½ un-116
  at  PINNACLE
in 1h

**#4 ranked MLB in 2015-16**
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MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Phillies vs. Cardinals
Phillies
+145
  at  BMAKER
in 2h

Ryan won his first 50* Titan 4/22. These plays are the strongest possible grading produced by his SIM Algorithm and are akin to Game of the Year status. Backed by TWO powerful systems, a 14-3 game situation, + SP metric analyses.

10* graded play on the Philadelphia Phillies as they take on the St. Louis Cardinals in NL action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game.

Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 41-17 over the last 5 seasons good for 71% winners and made 24.6 units/unit wagered. Play against any team (ST LOUIS) - team with a good SLG (over .430) against a very good starting pitcher (WHIP less than 1.250) -NL, in May games. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Phillies are a money winning 10-3 (+10.0 Units) against the money line vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing less than 0.35 SB's/game this season; 10-3 (+10.2 Units) against the money line vs. a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season;  8-2 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less this season. Mackanin is 24-10 (+24.6 Units) against the money line vs. poor fielding teams - (turning 0.8 or less DP's/game) as the manager of the Phillies. He is also 20-10 (+18.6 Units) against the money line after having won 2 of their last 3 games as their manager. 

Fundamental Discussion Points The Cardinal's starter Michael Wacha is 1-1 (-0.9 units) when starting against Philadelphia with an ERA of 7.59 and a WHIP of 1.593. Wacha throws a lot more first pitch strikes, however he's given up 5 runs and a high .313 average after an 0-1 count. On the other side, the Phillies' starter Nola has been looking excellent. Pick Philadelphia Phillies.

MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Rangers vs. Blue Jays
Blue Jays
-1½+118
  at  PINNACLE
in 1h

This is a 1* Free Play on the Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 runs

 

The Blue Jays beat the Rangers last year in the playoffs to advance to the ALCS. Last night, the Rangers pitching shut down Toronto and got a ‘revenge’ win after being outed last year in the playoffs.

 

Looking at tonight’s game, I see Toronto who is playing at home, with a more favorable pitching matchup. They will face Martin Perez, who got the start for the Rangers last year in Game 3 of the playoffs, and Toronto tagged him for 6 hits that equated for 4 runs. Perez issued 3 walks in that start. This year his walk rate is off to a career high, walking 4.5 batters per nine innings. Also, his K/9 is at a career low at only 4.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched. Perez has never been anything special and is a bottom end of the rotation starter. Texas is 0-2 in his two road starts this season and 3-7 dating back to last year. The last six road losses have ALL come by two or more runs.

 

Much of that is due to run support, or a lack of by Texas. In those six losses, the RAngers are only averaging 0.83 runs a game. Yes, Texas has been shutout in three of these road starts. Based on recent history, I can’t see them just ‘waking up’ all the sudden and scoring enough runs for them to win this game tonight.

 

Toronto will call on Marco Estrada who won Game 3 in the Playoffs last year. He made two starts vs. the Rangers last season and only gave up 2 runs in 12.1 innings pitched. While Estrada's walk rate is up a bit this year, his strikeout rate is also up, which is a good thing at 9.12 K’s per 9 innings. Unfortunately, Estrada has not been able to get run support either this year at only 2.19 runs a game.

 

Toronto has now lost four straight games at home, where they played so good and hit the ball oh so well last season. They haven’t lost five straight since 2013. I feel they are in position for a win tonight. Much of the problems have been because of the lack of offense. But there is potential for them to wake up, facing a left handed in Perez, that is a contact pitcher that has more walks than strikeouts this season.

 

Toronto is 4-0 in Estrada’s four career home regular season starts as a home favorite of -150 or greater. They have won ALL four games by two or more runs with an average final score of 7-3. The Ranger’s have lost Perez’s last 3 regular season road starts when an underdog of +140 or more, ALL by 2 runs or more. I like this spot to lay the -1.5 runs for plus $$ on Tuesday night. (1* Toronto -1.5 runs)

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MLB  |  May 03, 2016
Yankees vs. Orioles
Orioles
-120
  at  BMAKER
in 1h

Free Pick on Orioles - 

Baltimore is showing great value here as a small home favorite against the Yankees in Tuesday's series opener. While the Orioles just dropped their last two at home to the White Sox, they are still a dominant 9-3 at Camden Yards this season. New York has lost 5 straight after getting swept by rival Boston over the weekend and are just 3-8 on the road in 2016. 

The Orioles will send out Chris Tillman, who has been on top of his game when he takes the mound at home. Tillman has a 2.08 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 3 home starts, all of which Baltimore has went on to win. The Orioles have won 5 of this last 6 starts at home against the Yankees, who send out the struggling Luis Severino. In 4 starts this season, Severino has a ugly 6.86 ERA and 1.779 WHIP, including a 10.12 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in 2 road starts. New York has yet to win when he takes the mound and I don't see that changing tonight. 

The Orioles are a perfect 7-0 this season at home with a total of 8 to 8.5, 17-5 in their last 22 home games after a loss by 4 runs or more and 12-2 in Tillman's last 14 home starts against a team with a losing record. Yankees are just 8-20 in their last 28 against division opponents, 1-6 in their last 7 against a right-handed starter and 107 in their last 8 when playing after a day off. Take Baltimore! 

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