MLB  |  Oct 02, 2014
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Total
7 un+111
  at  PINNACLE
in 5h

Thursday's Free MLB Pick  ---Tigers/Orioles UNDER 7---

Even after watching both Wild Card games fly over the total, I like the value we are getting with a key number of 7 in tonight's matchup between the Tigers and Orioles. Both of these teams have been off since Sunday and I think the long layoff is going to have both teams struggling at the plate against two top notch starters.

Detroit sends out the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Max Scherzer, who finished 18-5 with 3.19 ERA and 1.175 WHIP over 33 starts. Scherzer has allowed just 1 home run over his 5 starts and as we all know the Orioles rely heavily on the long ball to generate runs. This will also be the first time that the Orioles will have seen Scherzer this season, which is a big advantage for Scherzer.  I'm not expecting much from the Tigers offense either, as Baltimore will send out Chris Tillman, who finished with an impressive 2.54 ERA and 1.138 WHIP over 18 home starts. In his only start against the Tigers this season, Tillman allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 8 1/3 innings of work.

Key Trends - UNDER is 7-0-1 in Tigers last 8 Divisional Playoff road games, 5-1 in Scherzer's last 6 starts against at team with a winning record and 6-1-1 in Tillman's last 8 home starts as an underdog.

System - UNDER is 45-24 (65%) in games with a total of 7 runs or less when you have a road team that's hitting between .265 to .279 against a starter with an ERA of 4.20 or better and are starting a pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.300 or better. BET THE UNDER 7!

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