NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
San Jose State vs. Minnesota
San Jose State
+10-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 8h

Free Pick

Game 333: San Jose State +10

Undervalued underdog in this one.  Information from the sharps is to take this one small but it's worth a look.

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Miami (Fla) vs. Nebraska
Nebraska
-7½-110
  at  BETONLINE
in 12h

Rating: 1 Unit NCAAF Free Pick

Nebraska has really been kind to their backers so far this year as they have had 26 and 24 pt covers (110-26 point edge in lined games), behind Armstrong and Abdullah). Miami got 342 passing yards from QB Kaaya last week, while Dorsett had 201 receiving yards. But they are going to need the big play if they are to stay in this game.

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Rutgers vs. Navy
Navy
-6-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 7h

092014

Play on:  Navy (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) over Rutgers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)

The Scarlet Knights are coming off a heart breaking 13-10 loss to Penn State deep in the heart of New Jersey. If you were taking 3-1/2 you came out on top. Penn State had a 7 minute advantage on the clock, while picking up 5 interceptions from Rutgers QB Nova. The Nits scored 10 fourth quarter points to pull out the victory. The Middies went on the road and blew out Texas State with 4 straight touchdowns to take a 28-0 lead in the second quarter.  They averaged 6.2 yards per rush which doomed TSU. Texas State hurt themselves throughout the game with discipline issues accruing 11 penalties. Important, QB Keenan Reynolds of Navy was a late scratch, replaced by Tago Smith (202) who scored 2 touchdowns and passed for 2 scores in the 35-21 win. 

 In the series the home team has won 3 straight, while covering 5-of-7 ATS.  After (Rutgers) dropping their initial game in the Big-10 it will be highly challenging to rebound against the Middies in Annapolis. The last meeting for the two schools came in 2012 with Rutgers winning 21-20 as three point chalk, so this sets up as a REVENGE game for Navy.  The Middies have won 6 straight openers at home.  Navy fields with a monster 5-0 ATS mark off back-to-back wins vs. a losing team.  The visiting Scarlet Knights come into action 0-7 ATS after scoring 10 or less points, and 1-5 ATS after facing Penn State.  As I mentioned this is a bad spot for Rutgers, so we’ll ride with the Middies on Saturday.  Good Luck!

Last Saturday in College Football we cashed another TRIPLE CROWN PACKAGE (3-PACK) in sporting action. 10* Arkansas and 10* Virginia were our TOP PLAYS.  The package went on to a 2-1 day running our lifetime mark to 7-of-8 (87.5%) winning packages with the selections an amazing 21-3 (87.5%).  Make sure you have our TCP on your list this weekend.  We have started slow in the NFL, but we will have the best set of games this weekend with 2 weeks of action for a positive basis in handicapping the current reality.  Further, our MLB TOTALS are #1 here with a $3,820 profit.  Overall we have had an outstanding summer, so sign-in for the post season baseball package and the remainder of the plays during the regular season. Good Luck.

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+2½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 7h

East Carolina came through for us last week as it was in a great scheduling situation. The Pirates were coming off a loss against South Carolina the previous week. They outgained the Gamecocks in that game but two interceptions by Shane Carden led to the 10 points that South Carolina scored in the third quarter. Take those away and the Pirates could have been in contention for the outright win. Coming into Blacksburg, the Pirates were 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games following a defeat and they added to that once again. Virginia Tech meanwhile defeated Ohio St. the previous week and it was obviously still feeling the hangover. Now East Carolina takes on another big brother and it is actually favored, more than likely based on the win last week. North Carolina is 2-0 with unimpressive wins over Liberty and San Diego St. but the Tar Heels will be a motivated bunch this week as they will be out for revenge after losing to the Pirates at home last season by 24 points. It was the first loss against East Carolina since 2007 and first non-cover since 2001 in this series. The Tar Heels are no joke this season as they have 15 starters back from a team that finished 6-1 over their last seven games following a dismal 1-5 start. North Carolina had a bye week last week so the extra time will be an added benefit. The Pirates are 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a winning record while going 3-13 ATS in its last 16 home games following consecutive non-conference games. Play (331) North Carolina Tar Heels

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Tulane vs. Duke
Duke
-17-103
  at  BETONLINE
in 4h

Duke comes into this game 3-0 with three impressive wins over sub-par competition (Elon. Troy, Kansas). The offense is clicking averaging 42.3--ppg but surprising only averaging 6.4-ypp.  The defense have been solid only allowing 11.0-ppg and 4.6-ypp. We don't see Tulane's offense scoring a ton of points in this game against an underrated Blue Devil defense.

Tulane is 1-2 this season with their only win against FCS SE Louisiana.  Tulane is only averaging 5.9-ypp vs teams that allow 6.5-ypp. Tulane will have to score in order to have any chance to win this game and we just don't see that happening.  The defense has been solid this season allowing 5.4-ypp but those numbers are skewed a bit with the win over SE Louisiana who is not very goo (allowed 3.8-ypp in that game).

Tulane is over-matched in this one.  Green Wave are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on grass. Green Wave are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.  Tulane has been awful against quality offensive teams as they 3-21 ATS versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=450 yards/game since 1992.  

Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.  Duke has been great in the role as favorites as they are 10-2 ATS as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Our ratings have Duke -18.5 and computer is calling for a 19 point Duke win. Duke gets it done in this one.

Duke 41-21

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Miami (Fla) vs. Nebraska
Miami (Fla)
+8-105
  at  BOVADA
in 12h

Jack's Free Pick Saturday: Miami +8

Nebraska (3-0) has had a scare already this season with a 31-24 win over FCS foe McNeese State. However, it has taken care of business in its other two games, beating Florida Atlantic 55-7 in its opener and Fresno State 55-19 on the road last week.

Miami (2-1) got off to a shaky start to the season with a 13-31 road loss at Louisville. It has since rebounded with back-to-back blowout home victories over Florida A&M (41-7) and Arkansas State (41-20).

Both of these teams have had one poor performance this season apiece. I am a lot more worried about Nebraska’s last-minute home win over McNeese State than I am about Miami’s 18-point road loss to Louisville. Obviously, the Big Ten is down this season, and I don’t believe the Huskers are even close to the class of that conference.

We already saw one ACC team go on the road and upset what was supposed to be the best team in the Big Ten. Virginia Tech went into Ohio State and came away with a 35-21 victory despite being a 10-point underdog. I believe Miami is fully capable of going into Nebraska and pulling off the upset, but it just needs to stay within 8 points to cover the spread, which I expect it to do.

Miami hasn’t even lived up to its potential yet because it has shot itself in the foot with turnovers over the first three games. Indeed, it has already committed eight turnovers to this point. Freshman quarterback Brad Kaaya has now been able to get his feet wet and bounce back from a tough outing at Louisville. He is completing 60.0% of his passes for 693 yards with seven touchdowns and five picks. He should not be intimidated now that we are four weeks into the season.

Duke Johnson has rushed for 277 yards and two touchdowns while averaging 6.4 yards per carry. This guy was on pace for nearly 2,000 yards last year before getting hurt after seven starts. I believe this Nebraska defense is susceptible to the run. After all, the Huskers gave up 178 rushing yards to McNeese State, so Johnson should have his way all game.

Nebraska is a team that relies heavily on its rushing attack.  It is rushing for 324 yards per game, but keep in mind that it has faced three awful defenses.  Miami's biggest strength is its run defense, which is only allowing 83 yards per game and 2.0 per carry.  I just really believe this is a great match-up for the Hurricanes because of their ability to stop the run.

Miami is 8-0 ATS off a win by 17 points or more over the last three seasons. The Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS after playing a non-conference game over the last three seasons. Nebraska is 25-54-2 ATS in its last 81 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following an ATS win. The Huskers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Bet Miami Saturday.

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Clemson vs. Florida State
Florida State
-14-110
  at  BMAKER
in 12h

Saturday's NCAAF Free Pick  ---Florida State Seminoles -14---

The books have over-adjust big time on this one due to Jameis Winston being suspended for the 1st half and as a result we are getting excellent value backing the Seminoles as only a two touchdown favorite at home. I actually think this helps Florida State from a motivational standpoint, as I look for them to rally around backup quarterback Sean Maquire and have this spread covered by the half and to add to it once Winston returns in the 2nd half.

Those that have followed Florida State head coach Jimbo Fisher over his career, know he's one of the more well known quarterback developers in the game and I expect Maquire to surprise a lot of people with how well he plays in the first two quarters. This is also a big game for Florida State in their hopes of defending their national title, so those that think this team is going to come out flat need to rethink things.

Last year Florida State went into Clemson and completely dismantled the Tigers 51-14. Rarely do you see Clemson get that bad at home and for me that's a pretty telling sign just how much big of a gap there is in these two programs. Had the Tigers come back with the same team from last year, I may be looking to take the other side, but I just don't see how they keep it competitive without Tahj Boyd and Sammy Watkins to guide the offensive attack. Even if Clemson can keep it close early, I expect Florida State to pull away here in the 2nd half and win by 20+.

Key Trends - Florida State is 35-18 ATS in their last 53 games after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a SU win by more than 20 points and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games. BET FLORIDA STATE -14!

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
California vs. Arizona
Total
69½ ov-110
  at  BMAKER
in 14h

*3 Star NCAA FB Free Pick* The Cal Golden Bears run a unique offense under Coach Sonny Dykes. Cal had a freshman quarterback in Jared Goff last year, and for a freshman he played well. Goff is that much better this year, and I expect Cal to be able to score on just about everyone they play this season. Arizona's offense is very good with talented freshmen Anu Solomon and Nick Wilson starring already. Rich Rodriguez's team is going to be able to move the ball early and often on a weak Cal defense. A big bonus here is that both teams play extremely fast. There are going to be a ton of offensive plays in this game, which makes this total easy attainable. It's a high total, but it's high for a reason. Take the over.

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Louisville vs. Florida International
Total
45 un-115
  at  BOVADA
in 7h

FREE CFB Over-Under SATURDAY  (9-20-14)

LOUISVILLE @ FL INTERNATIONAL  (3:30 PM EST)

PLAY ON: UNDER 45 -115  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech
+8-105
  at  BOVADA
in 4h

Georgia Tech +8

Virginia Tech should be motivated by the home loss to ECU last week and manage a way to win this game. Frank Beamer's squad is average running the ball and passing with a QB in his first full year as a Hokie. Ga Tech is well coached by Paul Johnson. Their QB has shown he can run and pass the ball. GT led 35-10 last week at the half and then fell behind 38-35 before pulling out a late win over Georiga Southern. I expect Virgina Tech to win by 4 to 7 points so take the Yellow Jackets getting 8 points.

Georgia Tech +8

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+3-105
  at  BOVADA
in 7h

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North Carolina at East Carolina- This one is a set-up with the Pirates off a he upseT win over Virginia Tech. Tar Heels much better then rated...Take NORTH CAROLINA!



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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Central Michigan vs. Kansas
Central Michigan
+3½-105
  at  5DIMES
in 7h

FREE CFB PLAY SATURDAY  (9-20-14)

CENTRAL MICHIGAN @ KANSAS  (3:30 PM EST)

PLAY ON: CENTRAL MICHIGAN +3.5 -105  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Troy vs. Georgia
Georgia
-41-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

Georgia -41

41 points is a lot to win a game by, but in this case. Troy has lost by an average of 20 points so far this year, but they played no one close to the talent level of Georgia.  I like them coming off a lose to a rival to bounce back and pound on Troy.

Pick= Georgia -41

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Rutgers vs. Navy
Rutgers
+7-115
  at  BOVADA
in 7h

Play - Rutgers.

Edges - Knights: 29-12 SU versus military teams, including 12-7 ATS away and 4-1 SU in this series.  Midshipmen: 2-8 SU versus Big 10 opponents; and 4-11-1 ATS home openers.   Noting that road teams in Game Four, playing with a week of rest off their first loss of the season, are a long-term 105-83-1 ATS winning proposition, and with Navy QB Keenan Reynolds playing on a wobbly knee, we recommend a 1-unit play on Rutgers.  Thank you and good luck as always.

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Iowa vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa
+7-107
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

I'm taking the points with Iowa on Saturday.  We went against the Hawkeyes last weekend on these pages, but we'll come back with the Kirk Ferentz-led squad this week.  It's a bit of a homecoming for Ferentz and his Hawkeyes will face what I believe is a Pitt team that's a tad overrated.  The Panthers' passing game leaves a lot to be desired, ranked 123rd in the nation, and they rely too much on RB James Conner.  This will play right into Iowa's defensive strengths.  The Hawkeyes allow just over 65 yards rushing per game and they have garnered 19 TFL's through their first three games of the season.  This marks the toughest defense the one-dimensional Pitt offense will have faced through their first four games.  The Iowa offense, led by experienced signal caller Jake Rudock should get enough help from their defense to keep this one close to the final gun.  Iowa enters on a 38-18-1 ATS run off a SU loss and they're on a 6-0 ATS run on the road.  I'm taking the points with Iowa on Saturday.  Thanks & GL!  Scott Spreitzer.

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech
-8-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

362 Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech
The Yellow Jackets enter conference play on Saturday at 3-0 on the season, but all is not well in Atlanta. A case can be made that Georgia Tech has yet to play a quality game. GT faced two teams with similar offensive styles to their own, Wofford and Georgia Southern. In each of those games the Jackets were beaten at what they do best, running the football. Wofford had a 5.8 to 5.3 ypr edge, while Georgia Southern was even more alarming at 7.4 to 4.7. That means that even though Georgia Tech faces that type of offense everyday at practice they couldn’t stop it. Against Tulane the Yellow Jackets trailed by a touchdown with three minutes to go until halftime before pulling away. 
Virginia Tech had a letdown last week after knocking off Ohio State on the road. East Carolina is a very well coached team that took it to the Hokies. You can bet it will be all business at practice this week in Blacksburg. Virginia Tech is very familiar with the option offense of Paul Johnson. The last five years VT has held GT to final point totals of 10, 17, 26, 21, and 28 points. Keep in mind that in those years Georgia Tech averaged 35, 34, 34, 26 and 34 points per game. So in the last five meetings Frank Beamer’s crew held them to an average of 12 points less than their season average. With the Hokies now possessing a quarterback who can open the field we see Virginia Tech winning this one by a margin.
PLAY VIRGINIA TECH

We were way ahead of the line moves once again last week. Be sure to check daily for our football releases. 

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Tulane vs. Duke
Duke
-16½-110
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #328 Take Duke Blue Devils over Tulane Green Wave (Saturday 12:30 pm ESPN 3) The Blue Devils had a remarkable season last year in route to the ACC Championship Game and appear to have not missed a beat in 2014. Duke has had three blowout victories in 2014 and you can expect more of the same against Tulane this Saturday. Tulane has not beaten an FBS team this season and this will be their toughest test yet of 2014. Duke is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. Tulane is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams from the ACC. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Weekend Football card featuring a pair of top selections on Saturday and Sunday. 

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Miami (Fla) vs. Nebraska
Nebraska
-7½-105
  at  BOVADA
in 12h

Saturday NCAA Free Play

 

Courtesy of Tony George Sports

 

Miami @ Nebraska -7.5

Two storied programs who dominated the 80” and 90’s and faced off in the 2001 Rose Bowl for the National Title square off in Lincoln Nebraska for a night game on national TV Saturday Night.  The Huskers last home game was a scare from McNeese State but they bounced back nicely with a blowout road win at Fresno State, my Game of the Year Winner last week, with a 55-19 waxing of the Bulldogs as a 12 point favorite. 

There are numerous keys in this game, but one thing is for sure, you will see 2 quality running backs getting the rock in this one, Duke Johnson for the Canes who has yet to live up to full potential, and all world Ameer Abdullah for Nebraska who is a Heisman hopeful.  At days end a real key for NU is their aggressive defensive line and getting back All American DE Randy Gregory in this one, is a big advantage for Nebraska as Bo Pelini will send numerous blitz’s at Miami’s frosh QB Kaaya all night in passing situations.  A frosh QB in only his second road start in a rare night game in Lincoln is not a positive for the Canes, who had one other night game on National TV, where Louisville pounded them 31-13 and the game was never in doubt.   

Nebraska’s defense is a step down from Louisville’s overall in my opinion but better than advertised too, but it is the Husker running game and 3 headed monster with Abdullah, Cross and Newby, which is the best trifecta in the nation at running it including Georgia.  Husker QB Armstrong Jr. (who is a dual threat) has 2 weapons at WR in Westerkamp and Kenny Bell, who is one of the best receivers in the Big 10 not to mention both WR’s are huge special teams threats and both already have TD’s on special teams this year.  Nebraska’s ability to balance their offense is key here, and while Miami had had Florida AM and Arkansas State to warm up for this one, the Huskers at home are a big step up and are too much for the young QB and suspect defense.  Al Golden will have his team ready, there are just too many mis-matches in NU’s favor here including a home field worth 4 points, and there is no love lost at Nebraska for Miami who used to pummel them in big games for years, so expect a near riot atmosphere in Lincoln Saturday Night, and I personally will be one of those fans.

Huskers 31  Canes 20  - GO BIG RED!

 

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Bowling Green vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin
-27-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 4h

Bowling Green @ Wisconsin 12:00 ET
Game# 325-326
Play On: Wisconsin -27.0

Ordinarily my golden rule of thumb is to never lay more than 21.0 points with a college football favorite. However, there's overwhelming technical handicapping evidence supporting this selection, and it just made it too difficult to ignore. The keys to both of these systems is that the Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a week of rest, and the Bowling Green Falcons are coming off a 45-42 home win over Indiana last Saturday.

Besides the technical data, Bowling Green went from being 15th nationally in scoring defense in 2013, to allowing an average of 35.7 points, and 567.3 yards per contest in their first 3-games in 2014. That also includes a game against a FCS opponent in VMI who were able to amass 418 yards of total offense versus the Falcons defense. The Falcons will have to contend with a very potent Badgers running game that compiled a shocking 268-yards rushing versus an excellent LSU defense in their season opener. Through the first 2-games the Badgers are averaging 5.6 yards per rush, and allowing opponents a paltry 2.3 yards per rushing attempt.

Any home favorite of 21.5 to 32.5 that’s coming off a week of rest, has gone 51-14-1 ATS (78.6%) since the start of the 2005 season.

Any home favorite of 21.5 or more, versus an opponent that's coming off a straight up win in which they allowed 32-points or more, has gone 36-12 ATS (75%) since 1986. In case you’re keeping score at home, the favorite has won all 48 of these game straight up.

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+3-110
  at  BOVADA
in 7h

Free Pick on North Carolina Tar Heels +

We are seeing a huge over-reaction by the books in this one, as North Carolina would have almost certainly been favored here or at least a pick'em if it wasn't for East Carolina coming off that huge upset win on the road over Virginia Tech. As impressive as that win was for the Pirates, they caught the Hokies in a perfect spot off that huge win at Ohio State. It was a clear letdown spot for Virginia Tech and now I'm expecting to see the same thing happen this week with East Carolina suffering a letdown.

Not only are the Pirates off a huge game against the Hokies, but they went up against SEC foe South Carolina the week prior. They played the Gamecocks closer than expected and I just don't think they will have enough left in the tank against what is going to be a motivated and well rested Tar Heels team.

North Carolina will be coming into this game off a bye, plus they will be out for revenge after getting embarrassed at home last year by East Carolina 31-55 as a 12-point favorite. That contest came early in the year during the Tar Heels 1-5 start and before quarterback Marquise Williams took over. Williams helped turn North Carolina's season around, as the Tar Heels closed out 5-1 to make a bowl.

Covering against quality opponents isn't exactly something the Pirates have exceeded at in the past, as they are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a winning record. East Carolina is also just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home games after playing two straight non-conference games. That's a 81% (26-6) system in favor of the Tar Heels. Take North Carolina!

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
North Carolina vs. East Carolina
North Carolina
+3-102
  at  PINNACLE
in 7h

North Carolina +3 2.2** Free Play

We were all over East Carolina last week as our earlybird special when they had to face Virginia Tech. Virginia Tech him off a huge road victory over Ohio State 14 it was then rent and I definitely thought they were going to be in a letdown situation against an underrated East Carolina team. East Carolina is no longer underrated after they defeated Virginia Tech last week with an out right victory. So were in the same situation this week but in this scenario I'm fading East Carolina and I'm gonna back North Carolina as I feel East Carolina will have a major letdown here at home.

A few things working here for North Carolina. For one they get 15 stars back from last year and they clearly remember the loss they had at home against East Carolina in a blowout 55 to 31. East Carolina is wrong and inexperienced in the secondary now they face a dual threat quarterback that can run and throw in Marquice Williams. Williams has a plenty of receivers that can get open with NFL talent such as Quinshad Davis.  As impressive as ease Carolinas effort was last week against Virginia Tech they did get outscored 21-7 through three quarters after exploding with the 21-0 lead start again.

At the end of the day North Carolina also has an extra week to prepare for this game and they are motivated based on last years result and they won't be taking this team lightly.

Make sure you do not miss out on Freddy Wills college football plays this Saturday. Coming off a 5-0 ATS last Saturday and a Kansas State win on Thursday he is poised to recapture his 2 time NCAAF champion on the Sportscapping network.

NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Hawaii vs. Colorado
Hawaii
+9-102
  at  PINNACLE
in 6h

FREE CFB PLAY SATURDAY  (9-20-14)

HAWAII @ COLORADO  (2:00 PM EST)

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
UNLV vs. Houston
Houston
-21½-113
  at  BETONLINE
in 12h

FREE CFB PLAY SATURDAY  (9-20-14)

UNLV @ HOUSTON  (8:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON: HOUSTON -21.5 -113  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Sep 20, 2014
Old Dominion vs. Rice
Total
61½ un-110
  at  BETONLINE
in 4h

2 KARAT FREE PLAY

Today's Winner: 61.5 UNDER

Today we are laying the money on the under. This game is a good example when the totals, and spreads don't match! Don't be surprised if Old Dominion pulls the outright upset! Rice is coming off 2 hard losses against real football teams. Old Dominion has cashed in 5-0 on the over when playing on the road, but the real challenge is Rice, able to put up points. Rice is 8-5 on the under when a favorite, and 3-0 on the under after 2 or more consecutive losses.

According to my analysis, I have Old Dominion 27 Rice 17. Lay the money on the under, and get paid. Thank You.