NCAA-F  |  Oct 24, 2014
South Florida vs. Cincinnati
Cincinnati
-10½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 1d

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Cincinnati -10.5

While the Bearcats have been blown out three times this season, all three of those games came against quality opponents in Ohio State, Memphis and Miami, and two of them came on the road. After that gauntlet of a schedule, playing teams like SMU and South Florida have to feel like a breeze for the Bearcats. I look for them to make easy work of the Bulls at home in this one.

The Bearcats got back in the win column last week with a 41-3 win at hapless SMU.  It outgained the Mustangs 508-276 for the game.  The defense put forth their best effort of the season in limiting SMU to just a field goal while forcing four turnovers.  They held the Mustangs scoreless after the first quarter and cruised to a 38-point victory.

Now Cincinnati returns home, where it has one of the most underrated home-field advantages in the country. The Bearcats have gone 5-1 or better at home in five of the past six seasons. They went 6-0 in 2008, 6-0 in 2009, 5-1 in 2011, 6-1 in 2012 and 5-1 in 2013. So, in those five seasons combined, they sported a 28-3 record at home. They are a completely different animal inside the friendly confines of Paul Brown Stadium.

Despite getting five of their first seven games at home this season, the South Florida Bulls have been blown out by double-digits three times. Their only three wins have come against Western Carolina, Connecticut and Tulsa. One of those teams is an FCS opponent, while the other two are among the worst teams in the FBS. They also only won those three games all by 8 points or fewer.

This Cincinnati offense is putting up big numbers in 2014, averaging 34.3 points and 443.0 yards per game. Gunner Kiel is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country. He is completing 59.4 percent of his passes for 1,853 yards with 19 touchdowns against six interceptions. He should have his way with a USF defense that is giving up 29.0 points and 418.3 yards per game.

I just don’t believe that South Florida has the offensive firepower to keep up with Kiel and company in this one. The Bulls are averaging just 21.7 points and 311.3 yards per game to rank 120th out of 128 teams in total offense. That’s really bad when you consider the opponents they have faced thus far are giving up averages of 28.4 points and 400 yards per game.

I believe this line has been set lower than it should be because USF beat Cincinnati 26-20 at home last year. However, a closer look at the box score shows that the Bearcats should have won, but gave it away. They outgained the Bulls 350-241 for the game, but the Bulls got two non-offensive touchdowns on four Cincinnati turnovers, which was the difference in the game. Don’t expect the Bearcats to make the same kind of mistakes at home this time around.

Cincinnati is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 games off a game with a turnover margin of +4 or better. The Bulls are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win. South Florida is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in its previous game. Cincinnati is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with South Florida.  Bet Cincinnati Friday.

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 26, 2014
Nevada vs. Hawaii
Hawaii
+4½-112
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

FREE CFB play Saturday

Analysis coming!

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
UMass vs. Toledo
UMass
+17-115
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

Massachusetts is just 2-6 on the season but it is much better than that record shows. Four of those losses have been by five points or less including three by a field goal or less so a few breaks here and there and the record could be a lot better. The Minutemen won just one game in each of the past two seasons but have already surpassed those totals thanks to its current two-game winning streak. Defeating Kent and Eastern Michigan may not be overly impressive but both wins were blowouts and they outgained the two opponents by 141 and 282 yards respectively. Toledo is coming off its bye week following a loss at Iowa St. which snapped its three-game winning streak. The Rockets are now laying their biggest number of the season which I feel is unjustified against one of the better teams in the MAC that are getting a different perception by the public. They have been outgained on four of their six games against teams from the FBS as their defense has been horrendous. That is not a good sign for a Massachusetts team that is starting to hit its stride offensively, averaging 39.8 ppg over its last four games. We don't need the outright victory here as getting this many points against a horrific defense is a sure take. That defensive ineptness is backed up by a situation where we play on road underdogs in the second half of the season that are averaging between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl going up against teams allowing between 5.6 and 6.2 yppl. This situation is 31-7 ATS (81.6 percent) over the last five seasons. Play (149) Massachusetts Minutemen

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 23, 2014
Connecticut vs. East Carolina
Total
54 ov-110
  at  BETONLINE
in 15h

Connecticut vs. ECU Over 55.5

The talk about the ECU Pirates has died down. They are a good team but their league is just not going to elevate them enough. In three home games they have not scored less than 45 points so against a weak Connecticut team they just might go over all by their lonesome.

The reason the number is relatively low is that they might have to. The Huskies are terrible on offense. With the off week to prepare they should have more jump to their attack.

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Minnesota vs. Illinois
Minnesota
-6½-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

FREE CFB PLAY SATURDAY  (10-25-14)

MINNESOTA @ ILLINOIS  (12:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON: MINNESOTA -6.5 -106  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Texas vs. Kansas State
Texas
+10-105
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #193 Take Texas Longhorns over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) The Longhorns are getting better under new coach Charlie Strong and have only been dominated one time this year. Kansas State is coming off a big victory against Oklahoma last Saturday, a game the Sooners gave away with three miscues in the kicking game. Therefore I do not believe Kansas State is good enough to be laying double digits in this game. Texas seems to play to the level of their competition and you can bet they will be pumped up for this game. Texas has covered 9 of their last 12 games when they are and underdog on the road. The Wildcats win this game but it comes much closer than what the experts believe. Doc’s Sports nailed their NFL Game of the Year last week when the underdog Chiefs beat the Chargers straight-up. Expect more of the same this weekend with a full slate of winners on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday you cannot afford to miss. 

NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Texas Tech vs. TCU
Total
70½ ov-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

FREE CFB Over-Under SATURDAY  (10-25-14)

TEXAS TECH @ TCU  (3:30 PM EST)

PLAY ON: OVER 70.5 -106  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 23, 2014
Connecticut vs. East Carolina
East Carolina
-27½-113
  at  PINNACLE
in 15h

On Thursday the Free College Football Power Angle Play is on East Carolina. Game 106 at 8:00 eastern. The Pirates should cover the 28 point spread here. Favorites of more than 21 to -31 have covered to the tune of 46-13 ats and ECU averages over 560 yards on offense compared to 254 for U.Conn. They have covered 10 of the last 14 at home and have a solid 5-1 record losing only at South Carolina. U.Con has one win and it was a struggle at home vs an average Stony Brook team. The Huskies are a weak 0-10 ats in weeks 5-9 and have failed to cover 9 of the last 11 on the road. Look for East Carolina to cover. On Thursday we have the NFL Thursday night Totals of the Month with 2 Perfect totals systems. NFL is Ranked #1 On some of the most prestigious leader boards in the country. On ESPN we have a Triple system play with a Perfect Angle. College has cashed big too this season nailing over 70% on Top plays. Jump on now and cash bin Football with the most Powerful data in the Industry. RV

NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Northern Illinois vs. Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
-19-110
  at  5DIMES
in 2d

FREE CFB PLAY SATURDAY  (10-25-14)

NORTHERN ILLINOIS @ EASTERN MICHIGAN  (1:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON: NORTHERN ILLINOIS -19 -110  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Penn State
+13½-104
  at  PINNACLE
in 2d

FREE CFB PLAY SATURDAY  (10-25-14)

OHIO STATE @ PENN STATE  (8:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON: PENN STATE +13.5 -104  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Michigan vs. Michigan State
Michigan State
-16½-115
  at  BMAKER
in 2d

The Michigan Wolverines have found out recently what a "Little brother' does when they grow up.....They kick the crap out of their bigger brother. That is what has been happening and will continue to happen this weekend in East Lansing. i see The Spartans of Michigan State controlling all aspects of this game. The Spartans will be able to move the ball against the Wolverine and the Spartan defense will be able to contain the Wolverines offense much as they did last year. Granted the Spartans defense isn't as good as last year but neither is the Wolverine’s offense.

I think Michigan will keep it close on emotion at the start but Sparty will pull away in the second half and win BIG.

Play on Michigan State.

This is a 1* Free Play