NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Arkansas vs. Auburn
Arkansas
+19-110
  at  BOVADA
in 19h

I'm playing on ARKANSAS.  

Auburn is coming off a fairytale season.  After going 0-8 in the SEC in 2012, the Tigers were one play away from their second BCS Title in four years. This remarkable turnaround under Gus Malzahn has raised the bar in 2014 and you can see that by taking a look at the number for their first game of the season.  All of last year the Tigers were favored by more than 20 points just once - aganst Florida Atlantic.

Not that Auburn doesn't deserve to be favored in this situation. They did beat Arkansas by 18 last year and that was in Fayetteville. The Razorbacks are basically where Auburn was at this time last season. The Hogs failed to win a single SEC game in Bret Bielema's first year here. But if the faithful need to draw inspiration from somewhere all they need to do is look across the field Saturday afternoon.

This SEC West rivalry has a history of upsets.  The dog has taken the game outright eight of the last 13 years. The home team is just 4-8 straight up.

Arkansas will be better this year as they've had a year to adjust to Bielema's system. I don't think Auburn will be able to match last year's magic per se.  They'll win here, but it will be closer than the oddsmakers projection.  1* free play.

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Alabama vs. West Virginia
Alabama
-26-110
  at  5DIMES
in 19h

Game 177 (3:30 pm est): Alabama -26

Alabama comes into this game off a rare two game losing streak.  Saban has had to get his club re-focused and re-energized after being upset in back-to-back games to end the season last year.  Bama has loads of talent this year.  The main question mark coming the season is at QB.  However, that is a big question mark.  The Tide lost All-American QB AJ McCaron and two qb’s will get playing time this year, transfer Jake Coker and returning back-up Blake Sims.  The other question mark in our eyes is the hiring of new offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin.   USC offense sputtered under Kiffin last year with tons of talent around him.  How will he adapt this year to all this talent around him and will he be able to get the QB’s to play at a high-level? 

The Tide have an incredible defense after only allowing 13.9-ppg and 4.8-ypp last year, they return 5 starters but are loaded with top talent returning.  The defense will always be the main focus point with Saban and he will demand a better performance this year.  We look for the Tide’s numbers to better this season as they are talented at every position.  The offense needs to step up.  It did average 38.2-ppg last year and 7.1-ypp but they did play Tennessee-Chattanooga and some of the bottom teams in the SEC. 

West Virginia is in the 4th year under Dana Holgorsen and after a 4-8 record last season the alumni in Morgantown are not happy.  Holgorsen is supposed to be an offensive genius as a coach and in his first year without Genp Smith the offense sputtered big time.  The offense dropped from avg over 38-ppg with Geno Smith to 26.3-ppg last season.  The Mountaineers did have injury issues at QB last year so health is a big question mark this year.  Look for senior qb Clint Trickett to put some big numbers this season if he is healthy.  WVU needs to improve defensively as they allowed 33.3-ppg.  With 7-starters back they should be better but they don’t have the talent to compete with Alabama.

The linesmakers have this game at Alabama -26.  Vegas always adjusts the line for when the Tide play because they are a high-profile public team.  Look for some points to be put up in this one.   Bama usually struggles against up-tempo offensive teams but now you give Nick Saban a full off-season to prepare for West Virginia’s up-tempo offense and they will be fine.  Alabama performs well in a big-favorite role as they is 11-3 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points under Saban.  Our ratings have Bama -30 in this one.  Alabama gets the call in this one.

Alabama 45-13

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Ohio State vs. Navy
Navy
+16½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 15h

Obviously, the loss of quarterback Braxton Miller is a huge blow to Ohio St. but it is still a talented team all around and will still be playing for the Big Ten Championship. While the line has been adjusted to make up for the Miller absence, it has not gone down as much as I thought it would so we are still getting value on Navy. The Midshipmen are never an easy matchup for any team and especially one that does not see them very often. Navy is one of the few full-time practitioners of the triple-option left at the college level and it is very difficult to prepare for, no matter this being the first game of the season. Ohio St. knows that. Navy came into Ohio Stadium to open the 2009 season against an Ohio State team that would end up going 11-2, winning the Big Ten and then beating No. 7 Oregon in the Rose Bowl and lost by just four points as a 22-point underdog. Junior quarterback Keenan Reynolds leads an offense that was No. 2 in the FBS last year in rushing at 325.4 ypg. Reynolds ran for 1,346 yards and 31 touchdowns. It will be up to the Buckeyes defense to slow down the Navy attack in order to give its offense a chance. Redshirt freshman J.T. Barrett will be starting at quarterback for Miller and he will be the first freshman to start a season opener for the Buckeyes since Art Schlichter did so in 1978. Navy is one of the most experienced teams in the nation with 15 returning starters and that is an added asset when the team is one of the most disciplined in football. Navy has been one of the best underdog teams over recent years as it is 29-12-1 ATS in its last 42 games when getting points. Look for that run to continue Saturday. Play (158) Navy Midshipmen

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 29, 2014
Texas-San Antonio vs. Houston
Houston
-10-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 51m

Friday's Free NCAAF Pick  ---Houston Cougars -10---

While the Cougars were a bit fortunate to end up winning last year's matchup against UTSA by a final of 59-28, as they outscored the Roadrunners 28-0 in the 4th quarter thanks to 5 turnovers, you have to keep in mind that game was on UTSA's home field. Houston will be debuting their new stadium tonight and that's going to lead to an electric sellout crowd.

There's no denying the Roadrunners are a talented team and should contend for the C-USA title, with 20 returning starters, but they do have to replace starting quarterback Eric Soza, who interestingly enough joined Houston's coaching staff in the offseason. I believe his loss loss combined with the insight he's going to give the Cougars on the Roadrunners schemes gives Houston a huge edge in this matchup.

It's not like the Cougars aren't experienced. Houston returns 17 starters, including promising sophomore quarterback John O'Korn and 9 of 11 starters on the defensive side of the ball. I look for Houston to be able to score at will in this one and I just don't see the Roadrunners keeping pace this time on the road.

System - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (HOUSTON) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first two weeks of the season are 43-14 (75%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. While this system doesn't fit the current spread, I'm expecting this line to jump to 10.5 by kickoff. BET HOUSTON -10!

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 29, 2014
UNLV vs. Arizona
Arizona
-23½-108
  at  PINNACLE
in 2h

Jack's Free Pick Friday: Arizona -23.5

Arizona is coming off a second straight 8-5 season under head coach Rich Rodriquez. He has done a solid job of turning this program around and at least making the Wildcats respectable. In fact, they pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season by knocking off Oregon by a final of 42-16 as an 18-point home underdog. They went on to thump Boston College 42-19 in the AdvoCare V100 Bowl in 2013.

UNLV is also coming off a very good season as well. In fact, it went 7-6 and made it to its first bowl game since 2000. The Rebels would lose to North Texas 14-36 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl, but that was essentially a home game for the Mean Green. Either way, it was a massive step in the right direction for head coach Bobby Hauck, who was squarely on the hot seat after three straight two-win seasons. He’ll be back for his fifth year in 2014.

The Wildcats have really fared well in non-conference play the last two seasons. They beat both Toledo and Oklahoma State in 2012, including a 59-38 victory over the Cowboys that year. They also thumped Northern Arizona, UNLV and UTSA in 2013 all by 25 points or more. I like their chances of covering this 23.5-point spread against the Rebels in the 2014 opener as well.

Arizona brings back 13 starters this year and should be a real threat to compete for a Pac-12 South Title. The offense does lose Ka’Deem Carey, but seven starters return on this side of the ball, including four starters and 104 career starts along the offensive line. The defense only gave up 24.2 points per game last year and improved greatly over 2012. This stop unit should continue to get better in 2014 with six starters and four of the top six tacklers back.

UNLV loses its leading rusher in Tim Cornett (1,284 yards, 15 TD’s) and brings back 13 starters as well. This defense was terrible last year, giving up 31.8 points and 433 yards per game. The stop unit is going to be even worse in 2014 with the losses of four of their top five tacklers. Also, QB Caleb Herring has graduated after completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 2,718 yards with 24 touchdowns and only five interceptions a year ago. The losses are simply too big for this team to make much noise this season.

When these teams played last year, Arizona won 58-13 in a blowout that was every bit as big as the final score would indicate. The Wildcats outgained the Rebels 478-282 for the game in a one-sided affair. Expect more of the same in 2014. The Rebels are 12-37-4 ATS in their last 53 road games. UNLV is 1-13 in its last 14 road openers, including six straight losses by an average of 23 points per game.  Bet Arizona Friday.

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
LSU vs. Wisconsin
Wisconsin
+5-105
  at  BOVADA
in 1d

Wisconsin Badgers +5

This is going to be a humdinger of a ball game that should feature two very good running games...and very inexperienced quarterbacks. Assuming that both of those factors kind of cancel it makes a lot of sense to grab Wisconsin and those 5 big points. This opened smaller but 5 seems like a great spot to get down because I am not sure how much more this number is going to move. 

I am super intrigued by the elusiveness of newly names Badgers QB Tanner McEvoy who will add some elusiveness we don’t usually see from the Great White North. 

Good Luck, Razor Ray.

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Clemson vs. Georgia
Clemson
+7½-110
  at  5DIMES
in 21h

I like the Bulldogs to be improved this season but this line is way out of whack. Cole Stoudt will step in at QB after completing 47 of 59 passes for 415 yards and five touchdowns as Tajh Boyd's backup last year. He has looked the part for Clemson this Summer. The Bulldogs have won 16 of their last 17 home openers, but will begin the season without four-year starting QB Aaron Murray for this matchup. Hutson Mason takes over and should get better as the season progresses. Both teams have extra time to prepare for this first game. Georgia is just 4-9 against the spread as home favorites of late and 1-4 ATS as home chalk of 6 to 9 points. The Tigers are a good team and have done very well against SEC foes. Take the road dog!

Selection: Clemson Tigers +7.5

Prediction: Clemson 31    Georgia 34

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
LSU vs. Wisconsin
Total
50 un-115
  at  BOVADA
in 1d



8/30 09:00 PM EST    CF   (203) LSU VS (204) WISCONSIN
Take: UNDER THE TOTAL.
Reason: Your free pick for Saturday, August 30th, 2014, comes in college football as LSU and Wisconsin battle it out. A lot of new faces are on offense for these teams and the defenses are often ahead of the offenses in Week 1 of the season. The under is 6-1 in the Badgers last 7 games in August. Both teams have outstanding talent on defense, and in the case of LSU they are loaded with NFL-caliber defense. LSU is inexperienced at several key positions, most notably quarterback and receiver, but they can run the football, which chews up yards and the clock. The under is 11-5 in the Wisconsin Badgers last 16 non-conference games and this shapes up as a defensive duel. Play LSU/Wisconsin Under the total.

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Purdue
Western Michigan
+10½-115
  at  PINNACLE
in 15h

The Purdue Boilermakers finished last season on a dismal 1-11 SU run including 10 straight losses and were punished in those games on the stat sheet getting uncerimoniously out gained by an average 177 yards and 23 points per game. . Meanwhile their MAC conference opponents today Western Michigan also had a horrid season, behind some very inexperienced kids in key positions. These young men are now much more experienced and have enough talent to surprise some folks. Also HC Fleck has done well on the recruiting trail, and landed a few quality options that could make a splash in the MAC this season.  Bottom line: Purdue;s HC Hazell  after coming over from Kent State was thought to have some weapons at his disposal, but as is evident by his overall numbers unable to utilize them. With that said, I just cant see the Boilmakers as a 10 point favorite right now based on last seasons futility and Im betting the value lays with backing what Im also betting- will be an improved version of the Mustangs in 2014. 

Boilermakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 vs. MAC.

Play on the Western Michigan Mustangs 1/2 unit comp selection 

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Idaho vs. Florida
Florida
-34-110
  at  BMAKER
in 22h

Florida -34

Florida is looking to bounce back from a very disappointing season in 2013. The offense is healthy and the defense is always Florida's strong suit. Look for Florida to make a statement that last season is behind them and look forward to a successful 2014 season.

Pick= Florida -34

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Florida State vs. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
+18½-110
  at  BMAKER
in 23h

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Florida State vs Oklahoma State 8:00 ET

Dallas, Texas

Cowboys (+) over Seminoles- I know, I know, I just spent three months in Florida and all reports are that the Seminoles are loaded and they are. The defending National Champs will return Heisman Trophy rapist Jameis Winston who find the task a little tougher the second time around as it will take awhile for the whole team to reach last year's intensity. Oklahoma State won 10 games last year and have lost a large number of seniors but they still will have the 'fastest' player of the field and Mike Gundy will find a way to take advantage. Take OKLAHOMA STATE!



NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Western Michigan vs. Purdue
Purdue
-10-110
  at  5DIMES
in 15h

A pair of 1-11 SU teams from a year ago will do battle in West Lafayette on Saturday. Things didn't go well for Purdue head coach Darrell Hazell in his first season and he'll have the Boilermakers ready to make a statement against one of the MAC's weakest teams.

Technically speaking, this isn't a bad spot for PU. According to my notes, game one favorites priced at -7 or more are a strong 18-2 SU and 13-7 ATS provided they won two games or less the previous season. That bodes well for the Boilers. Also, double-digit MAC underdogs are a stiff 2-35 SU and 14-23 ATS in their last 37 against Big 10 foes including just 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS at game two or less. That spells trouble for the Broncos.

Once a force in the "Little Big 10" Conference (what I like to call the MAC), WMU has struggled something fierce posting a dismal 24-40 SU and 21-36-2 ATS record in its last 64 games including a disturbing 6-25-2 ATS in this set priced as an underdog of +24 or less. Also, against Big 10 opponents, Western Michigan is a woeful 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in its last 12 tries and has lost by an average of 19.3 points per game.

The Boilermakers brass has decided to issue free admission for students to Saturday's game against the Broncos. That means coach Hazell, Morgan Burker and president Mitch Daniels are picking up the tab to fill the stands. Rest assured, PU will look to impress with the Ross-Ade Stadium potentially full. Take Purdue. Thank you and best of luck, Tom Stryker.

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Boston College vs. UMass
UMass
+17-106
  at  PINNACLE
in 18h

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. #172 Take UMASS Minutemen over Boston College Eagles (Saturday 3 pm ESPN 3) The Mark Whipple Era gets underway facing an in-state opponent at a home game site that is actually closer to the Boston College than it is to UMASS. The Minutemen were just 1-11 last season but did cover the number in their fair share of games in 2013. Boston College is not a powerhouse and they did lose their workhorse in Andre Williams, who now plays for the New York Giants. Boston College went just 2-4 ATS in road games last season and they have just 9 of a potential 22 returning starters on offense and defense. UMASS stay below the number in their home opener and we collect in the process as well. Do not miss Doc’s Sports Opening Week of college football. Doc’s went a perfect 7-0 in college football last year in week 1 (+$3,000) and this week is one you cannot afford to miss. Jump on board now and let 43 years of handicapping experience work for you. 

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Penn State vs. Central Florida
Penn State
+2-103
  at  PINNACLE
in 12h

Courtesy of Tony George Sports

Penn State +2 vs Central Florida  (Dublin, Ireland)  8:30 AM EST

Avenging a loss where Penn State had over 450 yards of offense last year in this game, but no Blake Bortles for UFC this year and the Golden Knights lost 85% of their offensive production to the NFL including their RB.  Penn State has a great QB, and a great new Head coach and I doubt against a beatable team he will fail in his opener, even on the road in IRELAND!

I will say Penn State has lost their luster since the Joe Pa/ Sandusky scandal rocked the University, but Bill O’Brien (now head coach in the NFL) did a nice job of constructing a solid foundation and new head coach Franklin landed 12 Four Star recruits as ranked by Rivals last year, and many have made huge strides in fall camp.  A quick look at what it is, Penn State has their 2 best offense offensive players back at QB and RB, and CFU lost both of theirs and have to play a motivated team in another country and break in a whole new set of skill players on offense.

Advantage Penn State. – Free Play on the Penn State

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Clemson vs. Georgia
Georgia
-7½+101
  at  PINNACLE
in 21h

Clemson @ Georgia 5:30 PM ET
Game# 181-182
Play On: Georgia -7.5
(Please buy to -7.0 if you can)

The Georgia Bulldogs won't only be out to atone for a disappointing 2013 season by their standards, but they'll be out to revenge a season opening loss to these very same Clemson Tigers a year ago. The Bulldogs defense will be improved, and running back Todd Gurley is fully recovered from the knee injury he sustained which limited him to just 5-games last year . Quarterback Hutson Mason (2-starts in 2013) showed what he's capable of when he replaced the injured Aaron Murray last year. Clemson will  have to replace their starting quarterback, and their top three receivers from a season ago. I like the way things stack up for the Bulldogs in Saturday's premier matchup, that will be played "between the hedges" in Athens.

Any home favorite of 8.5 or less that's playing with revenge in their opening game of the season, they won 7 or more games in the previous year, and have won 15 or less of their past 22-games, versus an opponent playing in their season opener, and they won 10-games or less in the previous year, has gone 13-2 ATS (87%) during the past 18-seasons. Play on the Georgia Bulldogs minus the points.

NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Penn State vs. Central Florida
Central Florida
-2-105
  at  BOVADA
in 12h

Free Pick on UCF Knights -

There's no denying that UCF lost a couple of key pieces from last year's dream season in starting quarterback Blake Bortles and leading rusher Storm Johnson, but there's still a ton of talent coming back for the Knights. In fact, UCF has 15 returning starters and lost just 11 lettermen from last year's squad. I look for this team to surprise a lot of people with how well they play without Bortles in 2014.

Penn State on the other hand will be transitioning to a new head coach in James Franklin, who replaces an outstanding coach in Bill O'Brien, who did a tremendous job of keeping the program on it's feet after the Sandusky scandal. O'Brien really worked wonders with the Nittany Lions' quarterbacks and that has me concerned with sophomore starter Christian Hackenberg being able to match last year's numbers. Not only does Hackenberg lose his mentor in O'Brien, but he lost his favorite target in Allen Robinson, who had 97 receptions for 1,432 yards and 6 touchdowns. Penn State's top returning receiver is tight end Jesse James, who had a mere 25 receptions for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Even if the UCF offense struggles without Bortles, they should be very good defensively with 9 of 11 starters back. I look for the Knights to dominate this game on that side of the ball and cash in at least a 3-point win. Take UCF -2!

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 30, 2014
Clemson vs. Georgia
Total
54½ un-101
  at  PINNACLE
in 21h

Clemson/Georgia U55 1.1* Free play
Clemson and Georgia are returning a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball and will have arguably top 5 defenses or at least top 5 front 7 units.  The score of last year's game was a 38-35 shootout, but both teams had 3 year starting QB's in their senior years.  I would make this a larger play if I didn't have a lot of respect for each team's offensive coordinator, because they are among the elite, but replacing a 3 year start at QB along with having to replace 3 offensive linemen is not easy early in the season when defenses usually are a bit ahead of the offenses.  This game is important to both teams and I expect it to stay under the total here.

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 29, 2014
Texas-San Antonio vs. Houston
Texas-San Antonio
+10½-108
  at  5DIMES
in 51m

FREE CFB PLAY FRIDAY  (8-29-14)

TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO @ HOUSTON  (9:00 PM EST)

PLAY ON: TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO +10.5 -108  (CFB)

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NCAA-F  |  Aug 29, 2014
UNLV vs. Arizona
Arizona
-23½-105
  at  5DIMES
in 2h

FREE CFB PLAY FRIDAY  (8-29-14)

UNLV @ ARIZONA  (10:30 PM EST)

PLAY ON: ARIZONA -23.5 -105  (CFB)

*26-13 67% MLB RUN* Mikey Sports has ONE TOP RATED 5* MLB UNDERDOG PLAY going on FRIDAY! 245-166  60% Last 411 and 201-129 61% Last 330 OVERALL PLAYS! *144-92 61% MLB RUN!* 182-99 65% Last 281 and 135-66 67% Last 201 OVERALL TOP PLAYS! 48-19 72% Last 67 and 57-25 70% Last 82 OVERALL TOP PLAYS! 90-47 66% Last 137 and 107-55 66% Last 162 OVERALL PLAYS! WIN BIG with MIKEY again today!

Mikey Sports Has ONE TOP 4* CFB and TWO 3* CFB PLAYS ready for SATURDAY! Mikey has been among the leaders in Units won as well as ROI since its start back in 2001! THIS SEASON WILL BE NO DIFFERENT! Short Term Special Trends: 11-4 73% and 10-5 67% Last Year With all FOOTBALL PLAYS! Also, 6-1 86% RUN IN CFB to end Last Season! In addition to these short term trends, Mikey finished #5 with a 53-39 58% (+1110.0 UNITS) During the 2009-10 Season! Also, #2 with a 18-6 75% (+1173 Units) in CFB and #3 @ 31-15 67% (+1521.0 UNITS) with all FOOTBALL Plays During the 2008-2009 Campaign! JOIN Mikey today and build your bankroll now! YOU Will be Glad that you Followed Mikey!

Mikey Sports Has ONE 3* CFB PLAY ready for SUNDAYMikey has been among the leaders in Units won as well as ROI since its start back in 2001! THIS SEASON WILL BE NO DIFFERENT! Short Term Special Trends: 11-4 73% and 10-5 67% Last Year With all FOOTBALL PLAYS! Also, 6-1 86% RUN IN CFB to end Last Season! In addition to these short term trends, Mikey finished #5 with a 53-39 58% (+1110.0 UNITS) During the 2009-10 Season! Also, #2 with a 18-6 75% (+1173 Units) in CFB and #3 @ 31-15 67% (+1521.0 UNITS) with all FOOTBALL Plays During the 2008-2009 Campaign! JOIN Mikey today and build your bankroll now! YOU Will be Glad that you Followed Mikey!