Brandon Lee Brandon Lee
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 10, 2017
Jets vs Broncos
Broncos
+1½ -110 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

10* FREE NFL PICK (Broncos +1.5) 

I know the Broncos have lost 9 straight and fresh off a blowout loss at Miami, but I just don’t trust New York on the road. The Jets are just 1-4 SU away from home this season and the lone win was at Cleveland by a mere 3-points. A game they had no business winning, as the Browns outgained them by more than 200 yards.

I also think the perception here is that the Broncos have thrown in the towel on this season. It certainly looks that way after their ugly showing against the Dolphins, but I think there’s still some fight left in this team. No professional team likes to get embarrassed and more times than not a team will come back off a bad loss with a big time effort. I think we get that here from Denver on their home field.

Denver’s lackluster offense has been a big reason for their struggles this season, as there’s still a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I think this is a game where the Broncos can get something going on the offensive side of the ball.

Kansas City’s offense couldn’t have looked much worse going into last week’s game against the Jets and they exploded for 31 points and nearly 500 yards of offense, with Alex Smith throwing for 366 yards and 4 scores. I look for Trevor Siemian to bounce back from a poor game against the Dolphins with one of his better performances and if the offense can get going, the defense should be able to feed off that.

Keep in mind this is still an elite Denver defense, that comes in ranked 5th in the NFL against the run (92 ypg) and 4th against the pass (207 ypg). Kansas City’s struggling defense made the Jets offense look like an offensive juggernaut last week. That simply isn’t going to be the case this week.

Against the Chiefs, New York had just under 43 minutes in time of possession with 30 first downs. That’s not something they have been able to replicate and the Jets are just 9-22 ATS in their last 31 after a game where they had more than 34 minutes in time of possession and 24 or more first downs. New York is also just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games after giving up 25 or more points in 2 straight games. Give me the Broncos +1.5! 

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Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 10, 2017
Seahawks vs Jaguars
Seahawks
+125 at BMaker
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

40* NFL VEGAS MONEY LINE ANNIHILATOR (Seahawks +125) 

I believe the books have simply missed the mark here with making Jacksonville the favorite and I'll gladly back Seattle on the money line. While the Jaguars are 5-1 in their last 6 and have an identical 8-4 record as the Seahawks, I don’t think they are anywhere close to being on the same level as Seattle.

One of the big reasons that Jacksonville is sitting at 8-4 is the schedule they have played. During their 5-1 stretch, they have two wins over the Colts, a win at home over the Bengals and a victory at Cleveland. The only decent win during this run is a 20-17 home win over the Chargers, who I’m also not convinced is as good as they are getting credit for.

As for Seattle, this is the time of the season where they always seem to play their best football. I know they have some big injuries, especially on defense, but there’s more than enough talent on this roster for them to keep playing well. Just look at what that defense did last week against the Eagles, holding Carson Wentz and that high-powered Philadelphia offense to just 10 points.

What also gets lost in all the injuries for Seattle is they still have a healthy Russell Wilson at quarterback. He’s playing at an elite level right now, as he continues to find ways to produce, despite the fact that the’s running for his life just about every time he drops back to pass. This Jaguars defense is no joke, but I’m confident that Wilson will find a way to move the chains and put points on the board.

I also think Jacksonville has some major injury concerns of their own. Starting left tackle Cam Robinson is questionable after missing the last game and his backup, Josh Wells is also questionable. Starting left guard Patrick Omaheh, star corner Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Telvin Smith are also all listed as questionable.

A huge key here for me is the matchup for Seattle’s defense. It’s no secret that the Jacksonville is a one-dimensional offense that relies heavily on their ability to run the football. That plays right into the strength of this Seahawks defense, which ranks 7th against the run, allowing just 98.3 ypg. That means for the Jags to move the ball, Blake Bortles is going to have to make plays and I just don’t see that happening.

I mentioned earlier how this is the time of year where the Seahawks play their best football. Backing this up is the fact that Seattle is a ridiculous 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games played in the month of December. This is also a team that owns a 31-19 ATS mark in 50 games under Pete Carroll when they are listed as an underdog. Give me the Seahawks +125 on the money line! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 10, 2017
Vikings vs Panthers
Panthers
+3 -115 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3) 

I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field.

The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs.

Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team.

Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time.  

While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals.

I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg).

It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Dec 10, 2017
49ers vs Texans
49ers
+3 -120 at Bovada
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (49ers +3) 

It can be difficult to bet on games like this one, where you have two teams that are all but out of the playoff picture. I know the Texans are technically still alive, but I don’t think anyone is fooling the players on this team that they have a shot at making the playoffs with a 4-8 record with 4 weeks to play.

I think this team went into last week’s game against the Titans knowing that they needed to win that game to keep their slim hopes alive. I believe that’s going to make it really hard for Houston to show up here against a 49ers team that has one of the worst records in the league at 2-10.

Not only do I think the Texans are going to be lacking motivation here, but the injury situation just keeps getting worse and worse for this team. In last week’s game against Tennessee, they had 6 players leave the team and not return. They were forced to use running back Andre Ellington as a slot receiver. Tom Savage had to basically tell Ellington where to line up and who to block on each play. At least two of those players, tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz and wide out Bruce Ellington won’t be back this week, as each has been placed on IR. I got a feeling a lot of the other guys on Houston’s injury report that are listed as questionable won’t end up playing, as it’s just not worth playing hurt when there’s nothing to play for.

The big key here is that the 49ers are a team that I think is going to continue to come out and fight each week the rest of the way. There’s a ton of excitement with this team and the potential going forward with Garoppolo as their quarterback. I also think the fact that San Francisco traded for Garoppolo, eliminates any concern of them trying to tank and lose games for a higher draft pick.

There was a lot to like with Garoppolo’s first start against the Bears. He completed 26 of 37 attempts for 293 yards. Keep in mind that was against a good Chicago defense, which is sitting 12th in the league against the pass this season, giving up only 221.0 ypg. Now he faces a Houston secondary that is banged up (could be without top corner Jonathan Joseph) and currently ranked 22nd against the pass, giving up 235.8 ypg.

Lastly, it’s worth nothing that I still think the 49ers can win and cover here, even if the Texans are still holding on to the hope they can make the playoffs. That’s because this Houston offense simply can’t be trusted with Tom Savage at quarterback. Give me the 49ers +3!

SERVICE BIO

Brandon Lee has grown up learning the ins and outs of the sports betting industry, and is well known for his ability to bring home consistent winners in every sport he handicaps. Being a successful handicapper requires a lot of work, something that Brandon really takes pride in. If you are serious about bringing home a profit, take the time to see what this handicapper has to offer. You won't be disappointed!