Stephen Nover Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners
New York Mets
Play Type: Free

The pitching matchup and situation are ripe for a Mets victory. New York is the envy of many teams with its bevy of promising young pitchers. Jacob deGrom can take his place with any of them. He is the real deal. The right-hander has allowed six earned runs in his last five starts spanning 32 2/3 innings. deGrom has 38 strikeouts during this span.

Only Houston has a lower batting average versus right-handers in the American League than Seattle. The Mariners have dropped nine of their last 12 interleague home games when facing a righty. 

The Mariners want to give Felix Hernandez and Hisahi Iwakuma an extra day of rest so they have brought Erasmo Ramirez back into the rotation to start this game. Ramirez was sent down to the minors on June 25 after going 0-4 with a 4.89 ERA in his last 10 starts. Ramirez has been at his worst in interleague competition going 0-2 with a 7.77 ERA in five career starts versus NL foes. Seattle is 4-12 in Ramirez's last 16 starts.

The Mets hit 21 points higher when they play at AL parks. New York is 13-6 in its last 19 interleague away contests.

There are certain flats spots in a season and this sure looks like one for Seattle. The Mariners came out of All-Star break playing the Angels in an important division series. Each game was decided by one run. One game was decided in the ninth inning. The other games went 12 and 16 innings.

The Mariners just defeated the Mets last night. So in the last four days, the Mariners have played 46 innings with their bullpen logging 26 1/3 innings during this span. 

(Editor's note: Long-time Vegas pro Stephen Nover has his signature and most rare play, his 100-Dimer, going today in addition to this free selection. Stephen has cashed better than 70 percent lifetime on his 100-Dimers and is 2-0 this baseball season on his 100-Dime plays.)   

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Jul 22, 2014
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Washington Nationals
Play Type: Top Premium

The Nationals come out way ahead of the Rockies in every category. But the line isn't outrageously high because Colorado is home. Maybe the oddsmaker has forgotten that the Rockies are 8-20 in their last 28 games at Coors so even home field isn't an advantage.

Washington is making its move winning 13 of its last 18. The Nationals are healthy again, their key hitters are hitting well and they have Jordan Zimmerman going. Zimmerman is healthy and will not be on a pitch count. Zimmerman rates as a solid "B" to "B+" pitcher in my book. He has dominated the Rockies going 5-0 with a 1.64 ERA in seven starts against them. Zimmerman hasn't been bothered either when pitching at Coors going 2-0 there with a 2.70 ERA in three starts. The Nationals are 18-3 (86%) the past 21 times Zimmerman has been favored in the minus $1.51 to $2.00 range.

While the Nationals are surging and confident, the Rockies are the opposite. The Rockies are folding up tent just like they've done the past three years during the second half of the season. Colorado has dropped 25 of its last 31 games, including the past six times. Colorado is tied with Texas for the worst record in baseball at 40-59.

The Rockies have a decimated starting staff and multiple injuries to their best offensive players. Michael Cuddyer is out. So is Justin Morneau. Troy Tulowitzki has missed the past three games. Carlos Gonzalez hurt both his wrists last night and may sit out. Charlie Blackmon is playing on a sore ankle.

Now, because of their pitching injuries, the Rockies are forced to dip back and pluck out Yohan Flande again. He's 0-2 with a 7.36 ERA. The Nationals just saw him last month, scoring three runs against him in 5 1/3 innings. The last time Flande pitched was July 6 when he was hammered at home by the Dodgers giving up five runs and nine hits in 4 1/3 innings.

Washington also holds a huge bullpen edge. Nationals relievers rank No. 2 in the National League in ERA, while the Rockies' bullpen is last in the league in ERA and has blown the most saves.


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Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough.