Stephen Nover Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jan 15, 2017
Wild vs Blackhawks
Blackhawks
-124 at 5Dimes
Lost
$124.0
Play Type: Premium

Blackhawks minus $1.25 hosting Wild

 Chicago won four in a row at home before suffering an embarrassing 6-0 road loss to red-hot Washington on Friday. Now the Blackhawks are back home where they have won 17 of 25 times this season.  The price has come down enough to get involved here with Chicago as the spot highly favors the Blackhawks.  Minnesota is playing extremely well. But this is the Wild's third game in four days and second in two days. They just nipped the Stars, 5-4, in Dallas on Saturday to replace the Blackhawks as Central Division leaders.  Not only do the Blackhawks want to reclaim the top spot, but have revenge for last season when the Wild swept all five games. Prior to last season, though, the Blackhawks had beaten the Wild seven of the past eight times at home.  
 
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 15, 2017
Thunder vs Kings
Thunder
-120 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium
The records show Oklahoma City to be 24-17 and Sacramento to be 16-23. The won-lost marks don't lie. The Thunder are a much superior team to the Kings.  Oklahoma City isn't going to overlook, or let down, against the Kings either having lost to Sacramento the last time they met. Following this game, the Thunder are at the Clippers, Warriors and Jazz. The Thunder just lost to the Timberwolves on Friday playing one of their worst games. So this matchup is of great importance to Oklahoma City.  As usual, Sacramento isn't playing well. The Kings are 2-6 in their last eight games and 1-4 in their last five home games. The excitement of playing in their new state-of-the-art arena has worn off. Matchup-wise a big key is rebounding. The Thunder have the third-best rebounding margin in the NBA while the Kings rank 23rd. The Thunder can dominated the boards, which in turns ignites their dangerous fast break headed by Russell Westbrook. 
 
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Jan 15, 2017
USC vs Colorado
Colorado
-3 -110 at BMaker
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium
At 0-4, Colorado is desperate to get its first Pac-12 victory. I see that happening here against a USC team minus injured big man Benny Boatwright and who plays much worse on the road. The Trojans have dropped three of their last four games. They are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games.  Colorado had to play its first three conference games on the road and then drew fourth-ranked UCLA at home.  The Buffaloes are 7-1 against USC since joining the Pac-12. They have covered five of the past times versus the Trojans. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 15, 2017
Packers vs Cowboys
Packers
+4 -104 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Even if Jordy Nelson can't play, I still like the Packers here. Green Bay is riding a lot of momentum with a seven-game winning streak, has one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time playing at a high level and Dallas lacks playoff experience and could be rusty. Only once in the last six years have the Cowboys made the postseason. That was two seasons ago and they lost to the Packers at Lambeau Field. This game is in Dallas, but it's a far better bargain to get this many points because of that. Dallas hasn't been played a really meaningful game in three weeks. The Cowboys closed 1-5 ATS with three of their last four victories coming by six, two and five points. They lack Green Bay's big-game, playoff experience. Their quarterback is a rookie.  Aaron Rodgers has been a monster down the stretch with 19 touchdown passes and no interceptions during the last seven weeks. This total should be 21-0, but Davante Adams dropped two touchdown passes versus the Bears. Green Bay is averaging 35 points during its last five games. They've shredded three elite defenses - the Vikings, Seahawks and Giants - during this span. Those three teams all rank in the top five in either fewest yards or fewest points allowed. Dallas' defense isn't nearly as good as those teams.  Green Bay swept the Giants this season, a team Dallas went 0-2 against.  Despite a patchwork secondary, the Packers held in check and frustrated Odell Beckham Jr. They can do the same to Dez Bryant. The Packers have a wily well-respected defensive coordinator in Dom Capers and three guys who can rush the passer - a now healthy Clay Matthews, a still effective Julius Peppers and blossoming star Nick Perry. The Cowboys' best offensive lineman, left tackle Tyron Smith, is dealing with an MCI sprain.  The Packers were five-point home favorites when they hosted the Cowboys in mid-October. Green Bay wasn't play well then and the Cowboys were. Now look at the spread. The Packers are peaking and the youthful Cowboys have the weight of the world on their shoulders. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Jan 15, 2017
Steelers vs Chiefs
Steelers
+1½ -110 at 5Dimes
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. 

 Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either.  The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR.  But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury.  The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season.  Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle.  Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game. 
PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Jan 16, 2017
Blazers vs Wizards
Wizards
-3½ -110 at betonline
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium
Washington is red-hot at home winning 11 in a row at Verizon Center while going 10-1 ATS in those games.  Portland is not a good road club losing 15 of 22 away from home. The Trail Blazers are 5-8 against Eastern Conference foes and are going to be bothered by this early East Coast starting time.  The Trail Blazers' strength is their backcourt, but the Wizards match that with John Wall and Bradley Beal. 
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Jan 16, 2017
Stars vs Sabres
UNDER 5½ -115 Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium
Dallas isn't the high-scoring team of a year ago. Jamie Benn is having a down season and the Stars rank just 17th in goals scored.  The Sabres are a defensive-team. They rank 27th in goals scored. Their style is tight-checking with a methodical neutral zone approach. They like to force turnovers and dump-offs. The Stars dislike this approach preferring an up-and-down the ice style.  Buffalo is effective at home in its way of doing things. The under is 14-6-6 in the Sabres' past 26 home contests. An early day time start here is a plus to the under, too.  The Stars just beat the Wild in an exciting 5-4 game this past Saturday coming from four goals down. This game is going to have an opposite feel. Dallas has a bigger road game on deck tomorrow facing the Rangers. So it's a real flat spot for the Stars.  The under has cashed four of the last five times, too, when the teams have met.  
SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 20 of 22 winning seasons.