Bobby Conn Bobby Conn
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 28, 2014
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Houston Astros
-139
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* on the Astros -

Good value here against a Texas Rangers team that is absolutely checked out for the season.  While Houston doesn't have a lot to play for either (other than maybe some pride), I do like what I've seen out of starter Collin McHugh this year for the Astros.  He's just 6-9 but with a 3.02 ERA and 1.12 WHIP and 126 strikeouts in 119.3 innings, he could easily be 11-4 on a more talented team.  The future is bright for this kid and he should have no trouble against a Texas team that has flat out given up hope.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Aug 28, 2014
Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
Texas A&M
+10½-110
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* Thursday Night Thunder on Texas A&M +10.5

With similar talent profiles it's hard to justify a double digit spread between these two teams.  I believe there are a few simple explanations, and they all deal with public perception.

First, the loss of Johnny Manziel is a very public and very obvious loss for Texas A&M.  There are many that believe that without his play the Aggies would have had a much worse season.  I disagree.  This program has a tradition of recruiting skilled players and the gap left by Maziel and other talented starters will be easy to fill.

I think there is also a bias for the Ol' Ball coach and South Carolina in the court of public opinion.  They finished the season well with impressive wins over Clemson and Wisconsin, but prior to that they had several close-calls (and a loss at Tennessee) against teams that didn't exactly set the world on fire (5 point win vs Florida, 7 point win vs Kentucky, 10 point win vs Vanderbilt). 

As you can see, the reality is that South Carolina simply isn't a team built to blow teams out.  While I have to like their chances to win at home in this situation, this point spread is far too high for the situation.

Last but not least, there is some perception out there that the Texas A&M defense is soft.  After last season, I can see why.  They gave up 31 points to Rice, 42 to Alabama, 38 to Ole Miss, 41 to Auburn, 41 to Mississippi State, and 48 to Duke.  The reality is that they were bad due to several factors, the most obvious being a rash of injuries.  With a healthier defense and a strong recruiting class, the final score will be within the 10 points we need to cash a winning ticket.

*Note: The line here has moved down to +9.5.  I do not like it nearly as much at that number, so bump this down a few notches (I'd rate it a 2* at that number) if you cannot get +10 or better.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 28, 2014
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals
-1½+141
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium

3* on the Kansas City Royals -1.5 +

Look for the Royals to stay hot against a Minnesota team with little to play for.  KC completes the sweep and picks up a sizable victory.  Value is on the run line here with all of the motivation swinging in the Royals direction.

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Aug 28, 2014
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
+115
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$115
Play Type: Premium

3* on the Reds +

It's a little surprising to see the Cubs favored on the road in this spot, especially considering this is a potential series winner for the Reds.  In fact, the Reds are 10-5 against the Cubs this season and 10-1-1 in series against NL Central opponents.

PREMIUM PICK STREAKS

Basketball Totals (+2892)  134-97  L231 58%

All Sports Totals (+2740)  176-137  L313 56%

NBA Picks (+2634)  103-71  L174 59%

MLB Picks (+1959)  330-356  L686 48%

Top NCAA-B Sides (+522)  27-20  L47 57%

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