Bryan Leonard Bryan Leonard

<B>Off a solid 2-1 day on Wednesday including raising our MLB Totals record to 5-2 71% on the season. </B>Thursday we return to the diamonds with OUR STRONGEST OVER/UNDER PLAY IN THE MONTH OF APRIL. L

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2014
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Total
8½ ov-105
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

974 Chicago at Detroit

 
It should be a fun day to be a hitter in Detroit on Wednesday night when the White Sox and Tigers continue their AL Central series. Andre Rienzo will take the mound for the Pale Hosers against Drew Smyly for the Tigers. Rienzo has made four appearances this season, three of them are starts in Triple-A. In those three starts, he lasted just 13 total innings, allowing seven runs and 22 baserunners. He also uncorked three wild pitches. Rienzo became the first Brazilian-born pitcher to make it to the Major Leagues last season and he made 10 underwhelming starts. In those 10 starts, opposing batters hit 11 home runs and drew 28 walks in just 56 innings.
 
Rienzo doesn't miss bats at the Major League level and his heavy sinker won't be conducive to the White Sox average infield defense. There's just not enough depth in Rienzo's arsenal to give him a lot of hope against a strong Tigers offense, especially if Miguel Cabrera is going to start coming out of his slump.
 
Drew Smyly is a promising young pitcher, but this is a tough assignment for him. Smyly was forced into bullpen duty last season and began this season in the pen before making his first start of the season against Anaheim on the 18th. He lasted just three innings and allowed four runs. On the year, Smyly has faced 23 right-handed batters. Ten have reached via hit or walk. Righties slugged .404 off of Smyly last season and had a line drive rate of over 26 percent. The righty-heavy White Sox lineup should be able to tee off on Smyly and also get into the Tigers bullpen early on. The Tigers are weak at middle relief right now with the Luke Putkonen injury and Smyly elevated to the rotation.
 
PLAY: CWS/DET OVER
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Apr 23, 2014
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Miami Marlins
+155
  at  SPBOOK
Lost
$100.0
Play Type: Premium
 951 Miami at Atlanta
 
Aaron Harang has been one of the league's luckiest pitchers to date while Nathan Eovaldi continues to be an undervalued commodity. Those two will face off on getaway day in Atlanta as the Braves and Marlins wrap up their series at Turner Field. Harang is of particular interest in this start because he's coming off of his seven-inning no-hitter against the Mets in which he threw 122 pitches. With the early game, that gives Harang even shorter rest. On four days rest last season, Harang posted a 5.91 ERA over 13 starts with a 1.81 K/BB ratio.
 
Harang has been living right so far with a BABIP of .143 and a 0.70 ERA. Those are obviously unsustainable numbers. His FIP is 2.73 with a xFIP of 4.40 and a SIERA of 4.44. Nearly 75 percent of balls in play have been either line drives or fly balls and those are going to lead to runs at some point.
 
Nathan Eovaldi has started out well this season by showcasing tremendous control and command. Eovaldi has struck out 23 against just three walks and has allowed just one home run. Eovaldi has done a great job missing barrels with a line drive just a tick above 11 percent and a ground ball rate of nearly 54 percent. The Braves have managed only 76 runs in 20 games.
 
Unlike Harang, who has gotten lucky, Eovaldi has actually gotten a bit unlucky. His ERA is 3.55 but his FIP is 2.21 and his SIERA is 2.89. A lot of balls in play simply have not been hit at fielders and the Marlins defense is currently at league average in defensive runs saved.
 
Harang is going to regress in the very near future and with Eovaldi on the mound and a big plus money price, the Marlins are definitely worth a look to be the team that brings Harang back to earth.
 
PLAY: MIAMI
Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Apr 23, 2014
Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Total
198 ov-110
  at  BOVADA
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

729 Dallas at San Antonio

Word out of Dallas last night was the Mavericks were working on speeding up the tempo in their series against the Spurs. It wouldn’t hurt to step up the pace considering Dallas has dropped ten straight to San Antonio. But the problem for the Mavericks is that the Spurs are just as good in the open court. 
San Antonio was the best three point shooting team in the league during the regular season, but the Spurs shot just 3 of 17 in the opening game, thus slowing the scoring pace. With Dallas wanting to run and the scoring options of the Spurs we can see this game flying over the posted total.
PLAY OVER
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SERVICE BIO

Owner of Bryan Leonard Sports for the last 31 years. Multiple award winning documented service in all sports. Participant in the Stardust Invitational, finalist in both the Leroy's Money Talks contest and the Sunset Station Invitational here in Las Vegas. Featured speaker the past two seasons in the LasVegas Football Handicapping Seminar.