Freddy Wills Freddy Wills
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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 22, 2016
Central Florida vs. Connecticut
48 un-111

Uconn / Central Florida Under 48 1.1% Free Play (Now 7-1 ATS This Year on Free Play)

I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut.  The under is 33-16-2 in UCF’s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  That’s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road.  Central Florida does not trust their group of QB’s who have 1 TD and 2 INT’s on the road and that’s where Uconn has issues on their defense.  If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.

I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game.  Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half.  Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.

Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals.  Central Florida struggles to score points when they can’t run the ball.  Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense.  Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB.  Uconn even kept Houston’s attack in check.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 21, 2016
Oregon vs California
+102 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

Oregon +102 2.5% PLAY

Listen both of these teams are bad on defense and I think Oregon’s head coach is fired at the end of the year.  However when you really look at who they have played Oregon has faced the far tougher schedule.  They have played arguably the top 3 teams in the PAC 12 + one of the top teams in the Big Ten.  California has played Hawaii, they gave up a ton of points and yards to Oregon State.  I think Oregon will be able to run the ball like crazy here tonight and they have the best player on the field in Royce Freeman.  Oregon must continue to hand the ball off in my opinion they are not running it enough we will see if that changes.

Oregon’s top 4 opponents are all in the top 50 in offense and defense.  Meaning they are all balanced teams.  That’s what Oregon has had to contest with.  Cal has faced just 1 team in the top 50 in defense and they have not faced the level of competition of offenses that Oregon has.  Some of the stats are misleading for that reason.

The bottom line is Cal is 124th s. the run, and Oregon is 8th running the ball and that’s what you need in order to win on the road.  Oregon is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 off a bye, and 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 in October.  They lost huge last time out against Washington, but Stanford got crushed by Washington too.  Oregon makes a switch at QB, but that does not concern me against Cal.  Cal has some key injuries on both side of the ball including their between the tackles RB Vic Enwere being out which could hurt them in the red zone.  Cal already struggling to scored TD’s down there with a 56% TD rate compare that with Oregon’s 80.77% rate and there is your ball game.

Davis Webb, their QB and Chad Hansen their top WR also got hurt in their last game they will play tonight, but I’d rather back a team in a close game that is healthier than this.  They are also hurt up the middle on defense and lack depth at LB.  They are missing two DT’s and two Safeties.  We will see I may have to eat my own words, but I think there is a lot of line value with Oregon here against Cal, a team that was not supposed to be good this year.  Public perception is that they are good because they are putting up a ton of points, but they just lost to Oregon State. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 22, 2016
Hawaii vs Air Force
+17 -106 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Hawaii +17 3.3% PLAY

To me this is far too many points to be giving to Air Force.  I have thi game as a 36-27 game on neutral field and Hawaii has played extremely well since switching the offense over to Dru Brown in the last 2.5 games.  He has completed 63.9% of his passes for 6 TD and 1 INT.  The running game with Brown has also gotten better averaging 239 yards per game over their last 3 games.  Overall Hawaii is much improved this season.  They were 6.5 point under dogs at home last year and lost 58-7 to Air Force.  I think Air Force is a bit down this year and I think Hawaii is a bit better.  I have this game being off by 6 points and that’s enough for me to be a buyer on the Warriors.

It’s also worth noting that Air Force who is 80th in plays per game, Hawaii 109th in plays per game should keep the total down giving us even better value on the large dog.  Air Force has been really good on defense, but Hawaii is top 50 in points per play.  Air Force has given up 80 points combined in their last two games.  Hawaii can pick up yards in the passing game and the running game.  Air force will get their yardage there is no doubt about it, but I like a couple of x factors in this game.

Air Force has not been as good in the red zone.  Just 62.5% red zone TD%, and 75% allowed on defense compare that with Hawaii who comes in at 78%, and 57% on defense.  Both teams have had similar strength of schedules although I would argue Hawaii’s has been much more challenging with Arizona, California, and Michigan along with tough traveling spots.  Air Force played Navy and that’s about it.  Oh, Air Force who is -1 TO margin has been extremely lucky too recovering 73% of fumbles in games played.  That can’t possibly continue. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 22, 2016
Colorado vs Stanford
+2 -105 at betonline
Play Type: Premium

Colorado +8 Teaser w/ LSU -0.5 4.4% play


Should be able to run the ball in this game.  Ole Miss has really struggled to stop the run and LSU will be very fresh in their running game this week as they ran the ball only 24 times in their easy win against Southern Miss.  Ole Miss probably the best 3 loss team in the nation, but having allowed 56.34 yards per carry in conference play does not look good for them on the road in a night game against LSU.

LSU’s defensive strength is also their pass defense.  Chad Kelly has been able to perform well against top defenses, but I think this may be asking too much in a road game at night in Death Valley.  LSU could be peaking ahead to Alabama, but they have a bye in between to make sure they are not.  I expect another complete game just like we have seen in back to back weeks under Ed Orgeron who was the head coach at Ole Miss once upon a time ago.  LSU held Kelly in check last year on the road, but they lost 17-38 and certainly want revenge.  LSU turned the ball over 3 times in that game and I don’t expect that to happen.  Ole Miss lost a ton of play makers from a year ago and certainly are not the same team.  LSU’s pass defense has allowed 3 passing TD’s and 4 INT’s.  This is also a tough spot for Ole miss playing in back to back road games for the first time since 2013.


Stanford won last week against Notre Dame and were lucky to do so.  This Stanford team just is not very good.  We have seen what teams have done the week after getting a “big win” against Notre Dame.  Stanford’s defense is not as good and their offense is not as good with or without Christian McCaffrey who will likely play in this game.  McCaffrey is not getting as many touches and should be fresh for this game, but Buffalo’s defense is much improved since the last time these two met.

I really like what Jim Leavitt has done he has this defense playing extremely well.  In 2014 before Leavitt came over to be the defensive coordinator Colorado gave up 39 points per game, in conference play they allowed 31 TD’s and 1 INT that year.  In his first year they made a dramatic improvement allowing 27.5 points per game.  Their pass defense also improved to 19 TD’s allowed and 7 INT in conference play.  This year they are allowing 20 points per game, and their pass defense through 4 conference games is allowing 53.3% completions 6 TD’s and 5 INT’s.  Their run defense also allowing less than 4 yards per carry.  The only opponents that have put up points on this defense are Michigan and Oregon who are in the top 25 for offenses and have a balanced approach.  Stanford is very much one dimensional, easy to prepare for and ranked 94th in the S&P offensive ratings. Stanford is -4 in TO margin this year and Colorado has forced a TO in 20 straight games.

On the flip side you have Stanford whose defense has started to show signs of struggling.  They struggle against top offenses that can beat you with the running and passing game and that’s what Colorado has proven that they can do.  Stanford gave up 42 points to Washington State who does not grade as high as Colorado, but does have a good offense running and passing.  Washington also scored 44 on this defense and have a good running and passing game.  Colorado ranks 27th and 1st in the S&P rankings for running and throwing.  They hung with Michigan on the road before they lost their QB Sefo Liufau, but he’s back and the senior is ready to give Stanford a tough game on the road.


Season Awards: The sportscapping network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic. Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 5 years. In 2008 I started Sports Bet Capping and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks. Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's). My Motto: "The will to win is nothing without the will to prepare."