Freddy Wills Freddy Wills
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Every Handicapper has their niche sport and college football belong to Freddy Wills!  I am the current career profit leader and have been season champ 2 times in my 7 year career going up against over 100 experts.  I am a 3 time top 10 on this network including #1 in 2009 & 2011!  While that was a while ago I keep profiting with my confidence system I have produced great results.

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 25, 2016
Cardinals vs. Bills
Bills
+4-115
  at  BMAKER
started

Bills +4 1.1% Free Play 

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Oklahoma State vs Baylor
Oklahoma State
+9 -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

Oklahoma State +9 2.2%

Call me crazy, but I believe Oklahoma State has the edge here in the trenches as Baylor lost everyone on their starting offensive and defensive line with the exception of one player.  Baylor also off to a slow start and this offense is not quite the same as they were unable to score a 1st quarter TD against Rice and SMU (7 TD in 1Q last year against them).  Baylor 5.9 yards per play so far this season averaged 7.1 a year ago and they have faced very bad defenses so far.

Oklahoma State meanwhile has 101 career starts returning on the offensive line and DT Vincent Taylor, a likely first team All Big 12 is the best defensive lineman in this game.  Baylor also struggling to get any type of pressure ranking 78th in sack % against weak opponents.  Mason Rudolph should have plenty of time to move the chains in this one.  Rudolph has James Washington and the league’s second best TE in Blake Jarwin.

Many will point to Oklahoma State’s loss to Central Michigan out of the MAC.  I will say what I have been saying all along.  The Big 12 is over rated!  That play was actually never supposed to happen, and I am really impressed with the way the Cowboys responded by coming back and winning against a very good Pitt team out of the ACC.  Baylor simply has not been themselves, they have 34 penalties in 3 games and they lack a killer instinct and Oklahoma State could be poised for a back door cover if they get behind.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Vanderbilt vs Western Kentucky
Vanderbilt
+8 -103 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

Vanderbilt +8 4.4% play

This is far too many points when you look at the fact that Vanderbilt has a very good defense.  It did not look very good a week ago against Georgia Tech, but that is to be expected.  I don’t think Vanderbilt has faced the triple option and I am almost positive Derek Mason’s experience with it is extremely limited so I’m not surprised by the struggles they had.  With that said this line is inflated because of that game.  I won’t disagree that Vanderbilt’s offense has been very bad, but going up against a Conference USA opponent should help that.  Vanderbilt lost this game last year but outgained Western Kentucky 385 to 246.  Western Kentucky lost their star QB Brandon Doughty, and 8 defensive starters.

Western Kentucky has had a very easy schedule outside of Alabama.  They played pretty well against the Crimson Tide, but mainly because Alabama was looking ahead to the Ole Miss game.  Last week Western Kentucky was out gained by Miami Ohio.  The SEC is 7-1 SU, and 7-0-1 ATS as a dog against Conference USA opponents.  Vanderbilt 7-0 ATS themselves vs. the CUSA while Western Kentucky is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the SEC.

Another key factor to consider in this game is the fact that both teams are slowing the game down considerably vs. last year.  Vanderbilt 97th in pace -8 plays per game, and Western Kentucky is 106th at -8 plays per game.  8 points to a solid defense is too many.  Some of you may think I am crazy calling Vanderbilt a solid defense, but that’s what they are led by Zach Cunningham and a plethora or returning starters from last year which held this team to 246 yards and 14 points.  Western Kentucky has some offensive weapons at WR, and Mike White has been good, but this Vanderbilt defense has been very good vs. the pass.  They gave up just 55% completion rate, and their yards allowed are skewed because of the Middle Tennessee game where they threw the ball 65 times.  Vanderbilt vs. a one dimension offense last year allowed opponents to score just 15.7 ppg.  That’s exactly what Western Kentucky is this year.  They have 256 total rushing yards on the season and ironically had their best rushing game vs. Alabama which just proves how disinterested the Tide were.  They average 2.94 ypc, and their strategy falls into the strength of Vanderbilt’s defense.  This is a must win for Derek Mason.  The strength of schedule has been tough to start and I think this is a game decided by a field goal and I think Vanderbilt has an excellent shot at winning. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Appalachian State vs Akron
Akron
+6 -107 at pinnacle
Lost
$107.0
Play Type: Premium

Akron +6 2.2%

I’m typically a buy low sell high guy and Akron does not really fit that here, but they are still getting tremendous value over an App State team coming into the year with plenty of hype.  They lived up to it against Tennessee to open the season, but as I expressed in my free pick last week on Miami.  They had all season to prepare for that game.  Miami really pointed some weaknesses on this App State team, and at this point their offense has really struggled.  Even against Old Dominion they went 2-13 on third down.  I certainly do not feel like they deserve to be laying nearly a TD on the road against a pretty good Akron team that deserved to win and cover over Marshall.

Akron returns just 7 starters, but head coach Terry Bowden has brought in some solid power 5 transfers and this team could be as good as Ohio to lead the MAC EAST.  I see Appalachian State having some issues getting up for this game after they are coming off their programs biggest home game in school history.  Marcus Cox is uncertain for this game and is clearly their best player.  Even if he plays I don’t see how long he stays in this game.  Akron’s offense is very under rated as Thomas Woodson has 10 TD’s to 2 INT’s and the running game has provided balance so far.  I like the fact that the MAC has been pretty good against the Sun Belt going 14-16 since 2010 and 2-1 this year.  This is just too much line value to pass up. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
LSU vs Auburn
UNDER 44.5 -110 Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

FSU +1 / TENN 0.5 4.4% TEASER

LSU/AUBURN UNDER 44.5 3.3%

LSU/Auburn Under 44.5 3.3% play

I had a strong lean on LSU here, but the fact that Kevin Steele was the defensive coordinator at LSU last year makes me a bit afraid of that.  Auburn also a very desperate team, but their offense has really struggled they are last in the nation in tackles for loss allowed.  They did play some formidable fronts in Clemson and Texas A&M, and LSU may be even better.  LSU led by Arden Key who has 5.5 sacks.  I’m thinking LSU may even get a defensive touch down in this one, but I don’t see Auburn scoring more than 14 points in this one making it very difficult for this game to go over the total. 

I also expect LSU to control this game and they are 120th in pace with just 61 plays per game.  They are 15th in yards per play allowed and their best coach is Dave Aranda, their defensive coordinator who leads an experienced defense.  It will be interesting to see what he comes up with for this Auburn team that can run the ball a little bit.  Actually Auburn running the ball 62% of the time which keeps the clock moving which I definitely like when taking the under.  Last year LSU put 45 points up on Auburn, but that was a little inflated and Leonard Fournette was a different guy.  This is a much better Auburn defense that is flying under the radar especially at home and you cannot discount the issues LSU is having on the offensive line.  A ton of injuries and this game just smells like a lot of field goals and not a lot of TD’s as the pressure is on for both of these coaches who are in desperate of a big win to keep their coaching seat cold. 

Florida State +1 (TEASER) w/ Tennessee -0.5 – 4.4% PLAY

OKAY, Florida State has seriously been tested to start the year playing Ole Miss, and Louisville.  Their showing against Louisville was embarrassing for them, and me as a handicapper, but I am not afraid to go back and back them again this week against South Florida.  This line is seriously off when you consider Florida State has more returning starters than South Florida and the line was 28.5 compared to 6 points, and I don’t feel like there is a huge deal of home field advantage.  There will be plenty of Florida State fans here.  I accept and notice that Florida State’s offensive line and defensive line has not played well, but when it comes down to it we are buying low on the Seminoles here and I am truly confident they win this game as they have everything ahead of them to get into the college football playoff.

For South Florida they win at Syracuse much like Louisville did the week before, and they are drawing tons of comparisons to Louisville with their style of play.  Their QB is dual threat and they have an excellent RB in Marlon Mack, but let’s not get carried away.  South Florida has yet to step up in competition their offensive line took a significant hit on the offensive line this offseason, losing 3 full time starters from last year’s 8-5 team.  Two of their starters now in Billy Atterbury and Cameron Ruff are learning new positions.  It’s great to see a 45-20 victory, but that game was extremely misleading.  Not only did South Florida have 400 yards less than Louisville did at Syracuse, but they were outgained by 95, had 10 fewer first downs, had a punt return TD, and fell on all 4 fumbles in the game and overcame a 17-0 deficit.  That does not deserve this kind of respect in my opinion.

None of that really matters unless the offensive line plays better for Florida State.  They played well in this game last year, and South Florida has rookies on the edge having to replace 3 starters.  Jimbo Fisher actually hinted at some different moves up front which can only be a good thing and they are very deep along the offensive line.  They haven’t faced a balanced offense like Florida State.  People forget what Florida State did to a very impressive Ole Miss defense.  Florida State out played what Alabama did to Ole Miss.  Put that all in perspective and you should feel confident backing the Seminoles this week. 

Tennessee 

Line value is certainly there as Tennessee was a 12.5 point favorite in the game of the year lines and now they are 6.5 despite Florida also losing their starting QB last week.  Tennessee has not been impressive and Butch Jones can’t win a big game, but this may be that game that the Volunteers have had circled.  They were up 27-14 last year in the 4th quarter before allowing 2 late TD’s.  74% of the best and 86% of the money is on Florida in this one, and I’m not buying this at all perhaps Butch Jones finally gets his big win.

Florida will start Purdue transfer Austin Appleby and that’s not good news.  Appleby in 2 years at Purdue threw more interceptions than TD’s.  Tennessee’s defensive coordinator Bob Shoop should have an edge here as his brother John Shoop was QB coach at Purdue when Appleby was the QB and I’m sure he will be handed a nice scouting report on Appleby.  That means it’s going to be up to Florida’s running game which averaged just 3.36 yards per carry on the road last year, and 3.16 in conference play.  It was their passing game that got them a win a year ago at home and they were lucky to have it.  Tennessee has struggled this year and I haven’t been high on them, but this is a game they have clearly circled.  This is a team that is already battle tested and has found ways to win while Florida has played a cupcake schedule.  This Florida defense lost 3 guys to the NFL draft in their front 7.  I like the experience and home field advantage in this one.  The game of the year line was 12.5 in favor of Tennessee, and that was before they lost their QB now I’m getting it at 6.5.   I’ll take the teaser as I’m getting 12.5 points of value.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Arkansas vs Texas A&M
Arkansas
+6 -110 at 5Dimes
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

Arkansas +6.5 5.5% POD / Arkansas +210 1% play

This game will be played at Cowboys Stadium again, and honestly there really is not a lot separating these two teams.  The game of the year line had this game as a pickem, but we are getting 6.5 points due to the success of Texas A&M over two good teams in UCLA & Auburn.  However, I am more impressed with Arkansas win over TCU on the road.

This game went to OT the last two years, and I expect it to be another close game.  Texas A&M’s strength of rushing the passer won’t show up as much in this game as Arkansas loves to pound the rock, but the play of Austin Allen has been exceptional so far this year.  He faced a good TCU defense on the road and had 3 TD’s 0 INT’s.  He’s got a very experienced WR group in seniors Keon Hatcher and Drew Morgan and throw in TE Jeremy Sprinkle and you can see why this team is having success in the red zone that Texas A&M is not.

A&M has struggled on third downs, and in the red zone converting drives into TD’s.  Arkansas defense is very under rated.  They held TCU to 7 points after 3 quarters on the road.  Trevor Knight has been a nice story for A&M at QB, but he’s only completing 52.9% of his passes converting 30% on third down and less than 50% TD’s in the red zone.  Knight has not shown a threat to stretch the field and he goes up against a very good pass defense in Arkansas who have already been tested by TCU.

Arkansas has proven they can run the ball in this series covering more than 200 yards in both OT loses.  I expect the same thing, and I like Arkansas defense better this year, I like their receivers better and they have an experienced offensive line although they are shuffling some things around.  This is a clear game that Arkansas circled before the season and a critical SEC West showdown.  I think Bielema is a little bit of a better coach and he’s an impressive 10-1-1 ATS as a dog with Arkansas with 6 outright upsets.  A&M struggled to stop Auburn’s running game which is a red flag for me considering Arkansas has the threat of the passing game.  

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 24, 2016
Duke vs Notre Dame
Duke
+20 -118 at pinnacle
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Duke +20 1.1% Free Play

Duke is certainly stepping up in competition here, but it’s hard to see where Notre Dame’s heads are at in this situation.  Meanwhile they continue to have inflated lines as favorites and I like enough things about Duke for them to cover the 20 points.

Duke’s strength right now is the passing game with Daniel Jones as they rank 26th in passing success rate against a couple of decent defenses in Northwestern and Wake Forest (both in top 50 last year vs. the pass).  Right now Notre Dame is vulnerable in the secondary and rank 115th in opponent passing success rate.  I don’t see how they can be favorites in this spot.

Duke is well coached under David Cutcliffe, and their defense is a bit under rated.  They have 6 starters back and did not allow any team to run over 200 yards on the road last year.  I think they have enough to scare Notre Dame a bit here.  Notre Dame did not at all look impressive at home against Nevada despite winning and covering the final score was misleading.

    ***WHAT'S ON DECK FOR WEEK #4 FOR #1 CAREER LEADER FOR CFB!***

MAX Rated POD - 79-46 ATS (63.2%) on my TOP RATED PLAYS! - 15-7 ATS Career Backing This Team!

TEASER OF THE WEEK - 2-0 THIS YEAR & 23-5 SINCE 2014!

TOTAL OF THE WEEK - 57% ATS CAREER

71% CAREER BACKING 1 TEAM!

42-28 ATS Career in Week 4

*Games involved: Florida State / South Florida , Florida / Tennessee, Oklahoma State / Baylor, Arkon /App State, VAnderbilt / Western Kentucky / Arkansas / Texas A&M, LSU/Auburn! 

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 25, 2016
Raiders vs Titans
Titans
+1½ -105 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Titans +1.5 2.2% 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 25, 2016
Ravens vs Jaguars
Jaguars
-102 at betonline
Play Type: Top Premium

Jaguars +1 5.5% POD
The Ravens coming into this game at 2-0, but who have they beat? They rallied a week ago in a division game to beat the lowly Clevland Browns. In week 1 they defeated the Buffalo Bills who have already fired their offensive coordinator. Jaguars lost last week at San Diego which for a young team was a tough trip, but coming back home at 0-2 I think there is a lot of value on this team. Jaguars actually out gained both of their opponents despite going 0-2, and there is this thought that the Jaguars are the same old Jaguars. I'm sure the public will be rushing to play the Ravens in this one.

Panthers -1 / TB Bucs +1 4.4% Teaser
This is a horrible situation for the Vikings to travel to after they beat the Packers in prime-time. They lose 2 more key players in their running back Peterson and tackle Matt Kalil. Two huge loses that I'm not sure this Vikings team can over come. The Panthers meanwhile have shown some weaknesses in their secondary, but I don't see the Vikings taking advantage. Sam Bradford played well last week, but asking him to win on the road is too much to ask. Panthers 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 home games. 

For the Bucs, Jameis Winston coming back home off the worst game of his career in the blow out loss at Arizona. That's the story with Winston though he's hot and cold, and I'm expecting a huge bounce back week against the Rams who beat the Seahawks in our POD last week. Expecting them to struggle on the road. The Rams are a bad offensive team, and the Tampa Bay Bucs can be explosive at times under Winston. I see a victory by a TD. The Rams playing in an early game on the road in the humidity of Tampa Bay will be a challenge.

SERVICE BIO

Season Awards: The sportscapping network is one of the most competitive network of handicappers with over 90 professional experts.  2009 & 2011 I was the #2 handicapper for the entire year!  I also have had several top 10 finishes including, #1 NCAAF 2009, #1 NCAAF 2011, #2 MLB 2009, #5 NFL 2010, #6 NCAAF 2013, #7 NCAAB 2012, and #10 MLB 2011.   My Promise To You: All of my information is 100% backed by a guarantee and is fully researched and supported by my in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I personally bet these plays too so it is only fair you understand my logic. Who Am I: I have been wagering on sports for more than a decade and I've been doing it professionally for 5 years. In 2008 I started Sports Bet Capping and have been earning my clients an impressive return on investment which is solidified by multiple national handicapping season awards for MLB and College Football. This is something I take very seriously. That is why every single recommendation I make comes with a full in depth analysis for your betting confidence. I want you to know my logic behind ever one of my picks. Best Moments: In 2011 I predicted Iowa State +28.5 over Oklahoma State on a Friday night, but not only did I predict and play the spread I also predicted Iowa State to win the game outright as a 22:1 under dog. Iowa State won in over time to shock the nation and knock Oklahoma State out of the BCS National Championship race. Aside from that I have profited in every single of every sport on my signature play of the day's (POD's). My Motto: "The will to win is nothing without the will to prepare."