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Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  May 03, 2015
Washington Wizards vs Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
-5 -108 at BMaker
Play Type: Premium

Washington comes into this series with Atlanta off a 4-game sweep of the Toronto Raptors.  Because of that, the Wizards have not played in six days and whatever momentum they built up in those wins has been lost.  Washington is also taking a huge step-up in class against the Hawks in this series.  The Wizards controlled their series against a poor and undermanned Toronto team that had one of the worst defenses in the entire playoffs.  Now Washington must try and match those performances against an Atlanta team that was one of the best in the NBA this season.  Washington’s only win over Atlanta this season came when the Hawks rested all five of their starters.  The Hawks scored 105, 106, and 120 points in their three wins over the Wizards.  Those three wins came by an average of 14.7 points per game.  Washington’s playoff success so far has come as a surprise since they were just 13-15 SU after the All-Star break with a -2.4 point differential in those games.

Atlanta returns home off a 125-94 blowout win in Brooklyn on Friday night.  The Hawks have a lot of momentum now after back-to-back wins over the Nets, and they are in a much better rhythm than Washington.  The Hawks have been fantastic at home this season where they are 38-6 and own an impressive +8.4 point differential.  Atlanta’s offense averages 103.3 points per game on 47.3% shooting from the field and 38.1% shooting from three-point land on their home court.  The Hawks’ offense ranked #3 in offensive efficiency against Washington’s defense this season, so Atlanta will score at ease in this game.  To compare, the Wizards’ offense only ranked #16 in efficiency against Atlanta’s defense this season.  Atlanta is the better team, and since they are in a good spot, we’ll lay the points with the Hawks in Game 1 on Sunday afternoon.                 

10* Play HAWKS (-).

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 03, 2015
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers
+145 at Bovada
Play Type: Free

A series victory is at stake when Milwaukee plays in Chicago on Sunday afternoon.  Milwaukee is a healthier team with Carlos Gomez back in the lineup.  Milwaukee has scored 6 runs or more in four of their last six games.  The Brewers will face Jason Hammel who has struggled in two of his last three outings while giving up 7 runs on 13 hits in 11.3 innings of work.  Ryan Braun (5-13), Adam Lind (5-17), and Gerardo Parra (8-22) have good numbers against Hammel.  

Milwaukee will start Jimmy Nelson in this game.  Nelson has a solid 3.63 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in four starts for the Brewers this season.  He has 18 strikeouts to just nine walks on the season.  The Cubs’ offense has scored just 3 runs in their last three games, and their young team has been highly inconsistent so far this season.  There’s a lot of value on Milwaukee in this game, so we’ll back the Brewers on Sunday afternoon.

Free Play

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 03, 2015
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
8½ ov-125 at Bovada
Play Type: Premium

New York will play in Boston on Sunday Night Baseball.  This is a rematch of the April 11th game at Yankees Stadium that resulted in an 8-4 win for Boston.  Adam Warren will start for the Yankees.  Warren has struggled in two road games this season, especially with his control as he has six walks in 9.2 innings of work.  Warren owns a terrible 7.45 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his road outings.  Warren doesn't go deep into ballgames, so New York will have to use other pitchers besides Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller out of the bullpen in this game.

Boston will start Joe Kelly tonight.  Kelly has allowed 10 runs in just 11 innings in his past two starts against the Blue Jays and Rays with both games going Over the total.  New York will get their second look at Kelly this season, and their fourth overall.  The Yankees’ offense has been strong in night games as they are averaging 5.6 runs per game this season, going 10-6 Over.  Boston’s offense has been consistent in all games this season, averaging 4.9 runs with a 15-9 Over mark.  Look for a high-scoring game between the Yankees and Red Sox on Sunday night.

9* Play OVER the total (Yankees/Red Sox).

Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  May 03, 2015
Washington Nationals vs New York Mets
Washington Nationals
+103 at pinnacle
Play Type: Premium

Washington will play their fourth and final game of this series in New York on Sunday afternoon.  Doug Fister will get the start for the Nationals.  Fister is a perfect 4-0 with a stellar 1.01 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets.  Last year, Fister went a sterling 5-1 with a 1.90 ERA in day games while holding opponents to a .192 batting average.  New York’s offense has struggled against right-handed starters this season as they are only hitting .236 against them in 20 games.

The Mets will start Dillon Gee in this game.  Gee has a poor 4.26 ERA in two home starts for New York this season.  He has allowed 3 earned runs or more in three straight starts against the Nationals.  Ian Desmond (11-41), Bryce Harper (7-19), and Jayson Werth (11-37) all have good numbers against Gee.  Washington’s offense has been much stronger on the road this season where they average 4.7 runs per game.  The Nationals are finally playing up to their preseason expectations, going 4-1 in their past five games, while the Mets are starting to regress, going 1-4 in their last five games. We’ll back Washington in this game on Sunday afternoon. 

9* Play NATIONALS (action).


Steve Merril is considered one of the best sports analysts in the nation. He credits his success to employing a variety of different handicapping techniques such as statistical analysis, trends and systems, and fundamentals such as matchups and emotion. By relying on numerous handicapping methods, Steve continues to beat the pointspread on a consistent basis in both college and pro football, basketball, baseball, and auto racing.

Steve was the first person to ever win the prestigious $100,000 Insiders Handicapping Invitational and his unique knowledge and understanding of the gaming industry is what separates him from other handicappers. Steve has spent the past 15 years studying the odds and probabilities associated with all forms of gambling such as poker, casino games, and even the stock market. Steve has transferred this unique knowledge and understanding of statistics and probabilities into the sports world, which has enabled him to win on a consistent basis.

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