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Matt Fargo |
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| Matt opened the week with a SWEET 3-1 +$2,907 card on Monday and then WON again Tuesday with a 3-2 card highlighted by underdog winners on the +136 Brewers and the +125 Bruins! 3 Winners Wednesday! |
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| Published Hot Streaks |
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• NCAA-B Plays (+500) 5-0 L5 100% |
| BASEBALL SUBSCRIPTIONS | |||||
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| SHORT STATS | ||||
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| Last 7 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Moneyline Picks | +94.0 units | +3.9% | 42% | 10-14 |
| Overall Picks | +78.0 units | +2.6% | 43% | 13-17 |
| Last 30 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Moneyline Picks | +220.0 units | +2.8% | 42% | 33-46 |
| Last 60 days | Units | ROI | Pct | WL |
| Moneyline Picks | +752.0 units | +6.6% | 45% | 50-62 |
| YESTERDAY'S PLAYS | ||
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| Matchup | Selection | W/L |
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NHL | May 21, 2013 Boston Bruins vs. NY Rangers |
Boston Bruins +123 at 5DIMES |
Won $123 |
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This is obviously a must win game for the Rangers but must wins do not always correlate into a victory. New York has been in this situation before as in the first round, it returned home after dropping two games in Washington and evened the series with a pair of wins at MSG. I expect the challenge to be more difficult this time around however. Boston does not want to allow the Rangers back into the series and it knows full well what can happen as it held a 3-1 lead against Toronto and let the Leafs right back in it and needed a minor miracle in Game Seven to pull out the first round series win. The Bruins have won three straight games while tallying 13 goals in the process and they were able to get to Henrik Lundqvist for five goals, the most he has allowed since giving up six goals against the Penguins in the second game of the season. Expect that momentum to continue as the Bruins are 25-9 in their last 34 games after scoring five goals or more in their previous game. Additionally, the Rangers are 2-10 against teams allowing 2.55 gpg or less this season while going 1-7 in their last eight games revenging a loss where the opponent scored five or more goals. Also, we play against teams in the second half of the season with a starting goalie with a save percentage of .915 or better and going five straight games with 30 or more shots on goal. This situation is 60-24 (71.4 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (23) Boston Bruins |
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MLB | May 21, 2013 Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels |
Seattle Mariners +142 at BMAKER |
Lost $100.0 |
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The Angels opened their homestand by going 1-4 but did win their final two games over the weekend against the White Sox as the offense came to life with 18 runs. The Monday off day came at the worst possible time as Los Angeles could have built something but the momentum from the victories was lost. The Angels are still 10 games under .500 and their record is third worst in baseball but yet they are significant favorites behind a mediocre starting pitcher. Jerome Williams will be making just his fourth start of the season and after pitching two straight quality outings, this signals play against time. He was roughed up in his first start of the season against Baltimore and after posting a 4.58 ERA last season, I expect him to revert back to that style. Going back, the Angels are 1-8 in his last nine starts while going winless in his last five home starts. The Mariners had gotten off to a pretty solid start which was definitely a surprise but they have now lost four in a row, all in Cleveland after taking two of three against the Yankees in New York. Their poor road record is being taken into consideration but I like the fact Aaron Harang has gotten into a groove and is working on additional rest after getting scratched from his last start. He has tossed two straight quality outings and he has a chance for redemption after the Angels lit him up for five runs in three innings earlier this season. He had tossed two quality games against them last season. Also, we play against American League teams with a bullpen that blows 38 percent or more of their save opportunities against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season. This situation is 51-23 (68.9 percent) over the last five seasons. 9* (927) Seattle Mariners |
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MLB | May 21, 2013 Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros |
Houston Astros +123 at BETONLINE |
Lost $100.0 |
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We won with the Astros last night and we will come right back with them here. The line is not as big but Houston is still a pretty sizeable home underdog despite having a clear advantage on the mound. It has obviously been a rough start to the season for the Astros but they are 3-2 over their last five games with the two losses coming by just a single run. Additionally, they are 4-1 in their last five home games against teams with a losing record. They look to keep the momentum rolling behind Bud Norris who looks to bounce back from his worst outing of the season. He allowed seven runs in five innings at Detroit but the last time he was lit up (at Oakland, allowing six runs in 0.2 innings), he came back with a solid home start and Houston got the win. He has a 2.30 ERA at home in five starts and while just two of those were quality outings, the other three fell short by a combined 1.2 innings as he has allowed two runs or less in all five of those starts. After winning four straight games, the Royals are in a swoon as they are 3-11 over their last 14 games with the offense having completely taken a back seat. They have scored three runs or fewer in nine of those 11 losses and they are now 3-10 in their last 13 games as road favorites of -150 or less. Kansas City counters with Wade Davis and after having a solid season out of the bullpen last season in Tampa Bay, his return to the rotation has not been good. He has a 5.98 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in eight starts and this after posting a 2.25 ERA through his first three outings. Davis has a 2.65 ERA in three daytime starts but that balloons to an 8.37 ERA in five starts under the lights. 9* (924) Houston Astros |
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MLB | May 21, 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers |
Milwaukee Brewers +125 at BETONLINE |
Won $125 |
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The Dodgers got swept at Atlanta to open their roadtrip over the weekend but bounced back on Monday with a win behind another strong performance from Clayton Kershaw. Los Angeles is still just 7-12 on the road while going 2-7 in its last nine road games against teams with a losing home record. The Dodgers are a significant favorite again because of the starting pitching discrepancy but it is not as big as many think. Zack Greinke takes the hill for the Dodgers and he is coming off a solid outing in his first start since coming back from the disabled list. He allowed one run in 5.1 innings but was unable to go past 83 pitches as fatigue set in and I expect that to continue for a while. Los Angeles has won all three of his starts and this is where the contrarian aspect comes into play. The Brewers slide continues as they have now lost 15 of their last 18 games to fall nine games under .500. While struggling, Milwaukee is 31-7 in its last 38 home games when playing against teams with a winning percentage between .380 and .460. Hiram Burgos returns home after a rough roadtrip where he allowed 13 runs in eight innings. Most of that damage came two starts back though and he has been effective in each of his two starts at Miller Park, holding opponents to a .205 average with seven strikeouts and only one walk while posting a 2.25 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. We play against National League road favorites of -110 or higher that are hitting .255 or less and with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse going up against a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse. This situation is 28-13 (68.3 percent) since 1997. 9* (908) Milwaukee Brewers |
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NBA | May 21, 2013 Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs |
Memphis Grizzlies +5½-110 at SIA |
Won $100 |
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The extended time off did not help Memphis as it came out rusty in the Game One of this series as it was outscored 31-14 and was never able to get back into the game. That was a bad call on our part but I certainly expect a much better effort in Game Two as the Grizzlies are only dealing with one day of rest and will be stoked to come out for some retribution. It was a surprise that Memphis did get blown out as bad as it did in Game One after three of the four regular season meeting against the Spurs were tight. Because of the severity of the loss, we are catching some additional value here and while that is good to have, I don't think the Grizzlies will even need it. We can chalk that game up an as anomaly considering it was Memphis' worst defeat since January and their third worst of the season. The difference was the hot shooting Spurs which nailed 14 three-pointers, the most Memphis has allowed all season long as well as five more than any other opponent in the playoffs. Additionally, the Spurs' 14 three-pointers marked a franchise playoff-record. As far as the Grizzlies offense, they shot just 43.2 percent while Zach Randolph had one of his worst games as he scored just two points on 1-8 shooting and his -28 +/- was easily the worst of any Memphis player. Expect a bog bounceback from him as well. We have two situations in our favor as well. First we play against home teams after two straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 85 points or less. This situation is 40-17 ATS (70.2 percent) over the last five seasons. Second, we play on road teams that are outscoring their opponents by three or more ppg, after a loss by 15 points or more. This situation is 70-40 ATS (63.6 percent) over the last five seasons. 10* (505) Memphis Grizzlies |
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SERVICE BIO |
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| Matt Fargo is becoming recognized as one of the best and most consistent handicappers in the world. He has been handicapping professionally since his college days and his hard work and dedication have paid off considerably. In his 14 years of handicapping, Fargo has had winning seasons 11 times and has not had only one losing season in the past 10 campaigns. He brings with him numerous high ranking finishes in all sports with 23 Top Tens in the past five years alone including four #1's. Matt has appeared on numerous radio shows over the last few years giving out sought after information, free plays and spot-on analysis that the bettor needs. He is commonly referred to as �Mr. Analysis� as his game day reports are considered to be some of the finest and most thorough available anywhere. If you want reasoning for a play, Matt gives it to you. Rating Scale Play Rating will be displayed in each title and range anywhere from 5* to 10* for Premium Plays and 3* for Free Plays. Enforcer – this is the Signature Play for Matt and is usually backed with a 10* Rating unless otherwise noted. Supreme Annihilator – this is typically a favorite or a pickem that Matt feels has the opportunity to destroy the line. Dark Horse Dandy – this is an underdog that is being faded for the wrong reasons and usually has a chance to win a game outright. Star Attraction – this is a game that can be seen on national television providing great watch and win opportunities. Total Dominator – while rare, these are the best over/under releases and occur more in football and baseball than any other sports. |
