Jimmy Boyd Jimmy Boyd

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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 23, 2014
St Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets
St Louis Blues
-119
  at  5DIMES
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NHL No Doubt Rout on Blues -

St Louis got back on track offensively in a 3-2 win over Ottawa yesterday and I look for them to carry that momentum to Sunday's showdown against Central rival Winnipeg. When the Blues offense gets rolling they are very difficult to stop. They scored 4 or more in a recent 4-1 stretch. Winnipeg has allowed 9 goals in their last 3 games, including 4 in their most recent contest in a 3-4 loss at home to Detroit. St Louis has won 7 of the last 8 in this series and I look for their dominance to continue.

Home underdogs of +100 to +150 off a close home loss by 1 goal who are winning between 45% to 55% in the first half of the season are 14-44 since 1996. That's a 76% system in favor of the Blues. Take St Louis!

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Chicago Blackhawks vs. Vancouver Canucks
Chicago Blackhawks
-110
  at  5DIMES
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

3* Blackhawks/Canucks NHL Main Event on Blackhawks -

Chicago is starting to catch fire and this is a great price to back the Blackhawks on the road against the Canucks. Chicago is in the midst of their circus road trip, which they have started 2-0 with impressive wins at Calgary (4-3) and Edmonton (7-1). Corey Crawford is tied for the league lead with a mere 1.90 goals-against average and I look for him to shutdown the Canucks on their home ice.

Chicago has won each of their last two visits to Vancouver and the Canucks are just 9-17 in their last 26 home games against good offensive teams (29+ shots/game & convert 17%+ of power plays). Vancouver is also just 8-15 in their last 23 home games after playing their last contest against a division rival and 3-9 in their last 12 home games after dropping 2 of their last 3. These trends combine to form a 67% (41-20) system in favor of the Blackhawks. Take Chicago!

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Nov 23, 2014
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Denver Nuggets
-2-101
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* NBA Late Night Bailout on Nuggets -

The Nuggets are showing some great value here as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Lakers. Even though Byron Scott is preaching defense, LA is not listening. The Lakers come in allowing 112.5 ppg and just allowed 140 in their last contest against the Mavericks. Denver comes in playing their best basketball of the early season. The Nuggets have won 3 straight and during this stretch are averaging 110.0 ppg. LA has had a horrible time slowing down Denver's offensive attack. The Nuggets have won six straight in the series and are averaging an impressive 123.2 ppg during this streak. Denver simply has too much offense for LA to keep it close.

Road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who have gone over the total by 48 or more combined points in their last 10 games who are winning just 40% to 49% of their games are 31-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 78% system in favor of the Nuggets. Take Denver!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Nov 23, 2014
Florida Atlantic vs. Georgia
Georgia
-14-110
  at  BETONLINE
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAB Blockbuster Blowout on Georgia -

The Bulldogs missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year because of a poor showing early in non-conference play. Georgia knows they have to take care of business in these games and I expect them to do just that against Florida Atlantic. The Owls plummeted to 10-22 last year and while they get back 4 starters, they lose their senior captain in Pablo Bertone, who led C-USA in scoring at 19.0 ppg. FAU has already lost on the road to Elon 58-64 and Harvard 49-71.

Favorites of 10 or more points off a home blowout win by 20+ who have won 60% to 80% of their games against an opponent that has won 20% to 40% are 66-32 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 67% system in favor of the Bulldogs. Take Georgia!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos
-6½-105
  at  BMAKER
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on Denver Broncos -

It’s hard to not like the Broncos at home coming laying just a touchdown, especially off that embarrassing loss to the Rams. Denver is a perfect 5-0 at home this season with all 5 wins coming by at least a touchdown. Adding to this is the fact that all 19 of the Broncos wins at home (19-2) since they acquired Peyton Manning have come by at least 7 points.

Denver has followed up each of their two previous losses this season with blowout wins. They knocked off the Cardinals 41-20 after losing to Seattle and destroyed the Raiders by a near identical score 41-17 after losing to the Patriots. Adding to this is that with Manning the Broncos have followed up each of their last 7 regular season losses with a win the next week by at least 7 points.

The only real concern with Denver in this game is that Julius Thomas is listed as questionable. If Thomas wasn't able to play, it would definitely be a big blow to the Broncos, but they have a number of quality receivers. As long as Manning is on top of his game and you have to expect he will be after last week, Denver’s offense is going to be able to move the football and put up points.

Another thing to take into consideration with this matchup is that Miami hasn’t been nearly as impressive on the road as they have at home. While the Dolphins have a 3-2 road record, two of their wins came against two of the worst teams in the league in Jacksonville and Oakland and the other was against the Bears, who have not played well at home. They lost 10-29 at Buffalo in Week 2 and most recently at Detroit 16-20.

Miami has played extremely well defensively and come in with the 2nd ranked pass defense (208.0 ypg), but Denver is 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games against teams who are allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/attempt and have won these games by an average score of 26.2 to 17.4. The Broncos also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 after playing their last game on the road and a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games when listed as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Take Denver!

#9 Ranked Handicapper in 2014! Jimmy Boyd is currently on on an AMAZING 71-47 (60%) Run Over L118 NFL Selections! If you are serious about showing a profit on the pro gridiron, make sure you get your hands on Boyd's Week 12 NFL Sunday Power Pack (5 plays)! This includes his 5* NFC West Game of the Year, plus you will also receive his 4* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month & his 4* AFC Total of the Month! Each of these plays individually would cost you roughly $210, but with this special offer you get them all for the the low price of $59.97! YOU SAVE $150! That's not all. You are GUARANTEED TO PROFIT or you will receive Jimmy's NFL play on Monday for FREE!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Dallas Cowboys vs. NY Giants
NY Giants
+4-110
  at  BMAKER
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* Giants/Cowboys SNF Main Event on Giants +

This may seem like an easy play on the Cowboys as a small road favorite against a Giants team that they beat earlier this season by double-digits, but I think the value here is with New York. The Giants season may be lost, but Tom Coughlin will not let his team throw in the towel, especially at home in a prime time game against their NFC East rivals.

While Dallas is coming off their bye and that's typically a positive, I think the Cowboys are going to have a difficult time not looking ahead to Thursday's huge Thanksgiving showdown against the Eagles, which is a much more important division game than this one due to those two teams being tied on top the NFC East standings.

One of the big difference from that first meeting in Dallas back Week 7 is that New York will have a Rashad Jennings in the backfield. The Giants have been a much better offensive team when Jennings has been able to play. They are averaging 24 ppg when he's been on the field, compared to just 18.0 ppg with him sidelined.

Dallas is 37-57 ATS in their last 94 road games in the second half of the season and a mere 9-22 ATS in their last 31 road games in the second half against good passing teams who are averaging 235+ yards/game.

There's also a key system in play on New York. Teams who have been beaten by the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 5 games are 82-45 ATS in conference games over the last 10 seasons. That's a 65% system in favor of the Giants. Take New York!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Miami Dolphins vs. Denver Broncos
Total
47½ ov-110
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* AFC Total of the Month on Dolphins/Broncos OVER

I believe we are catching a very favorable number here due to the Broncos lackluster offensive performance in last week's 7-22 loss to the Dolphins. Peyton Manning is too good a quarterback and has too many weapons to be held in check in back-to-back games. Even with last week's poor showing, the Broncos still come in averaging 29.3 ppg. They have scored 30+ points in 6 of 10 (60%) games this season.

What really stands out to me is how the offense seems to come to life anytime this team is coming off a loss. In Denver's previous 5 regular season losses over the last two seasons they have came back the following week and scored no less than 35 points and all 5 seen a combined total points scored of at least 50.

The other big key here is that Denver's recent poor showings have come on the road. The Broncos are a much stronger team offensively at home. Denver is averaging 34.6 ppg on 420 yards of total offense at Mile High. The thin air really gets to the defenses and that especially figures to be the case for the Dolphins, who are making the long trip out west.

While I wouldn't be shocked if Denver got the total on their own, more than likely we will need Miami's offense to contribute. I believe they will. The Dolphins don't have a great offense, but they have scored at last 20 points in 5 of their last 6 games. The only game they failed to reach the mark is a 16-point effort on the road against the league's best defense in Detroit. Miami has had a few extra days to prepare for Denver after playing on Thursday Night Football in Week 11 and that should have their offense scoring more than enough to push this over the mark.

There's also a strong system in play. Over is 58-29 over the last 5 seasons when you have a road team in a game with a total set between 42.5 and 49 points who are averaging 24+ ppg and off a win by 10 or more points. That's a 67% system. Take the OVER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Houston Texans
Total
43½ ov-105
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NFL Week 12 Total Dominator on Bengals/Texans OVER

I'm expecting these two teams to fly over the total of 43.5 points on Sunday. Both of these offenses are coming off strong showings on the road against a couple of quality defenses. The Texans put up 23 points and 424 yards of total offense against the Browns, while the Bengals scored 27 on 405 yards of offense at New Orleans.

The big key here is that while both of these teams played a great defensive game last week, these two defenses have been far from elite in 2014. Cincinnati ranks 28th in total offense, giving up an average of 385.7 ypg and the Texans are even worse. Houston is 30th, allowing 389.5 ypg.

What I really like about this matchup and it finishing over the mark is that we have the strength of both offenses going up against the weakness of both defenses. While the Bengals rank just 21st in passing, a lot of that has to do with A.J. Green missing a big chunk of the season. He's back healthy (6 catches, 127 yards 1 TD last week) and he an Andy Dalton should be able to rack up some big plays down field against the Texans 31st ranked pass defense (278.1 ypg).

As for the Houston offense, it's no secret that the strength of their attack is their running game. The Texans come in 3rd in the league at 144.6 ypg. Cincinnati's defense ranks a miserable 28th against the run (136.2 ypg). It's also worth noting that coming out of their bye, Houston made the switch from Ryan Fitzpatrick to Ryan Mallett at quarterback. I think Mallett is a major upgrade over Fitzpatrick and is only going to make the Texans offense that much more difficult to stop.

The OVER is also 5-1-1 in the Bengals last 7 games after allowing less than 15 points, 8-1 in Houston's last 9 off a road win and a perfect 6-0 in the Texans last 6 after they allowed less than 15 points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 90% (19-2) system. Take the OVER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
St. Louis Rams vs. San Diego Chargers
San Diego Chargers
-4½-110
  at  BETONLINE
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month on Chargers -

It wasn’t that long ago that the Chargers were viewed as one of the elite teams in the league, but that is no longer the case. A three game-losing streak sandwiched around two less than impressive wins over the Raiders, has a lot of people writing off San Diego. The Rams on the other hand are getting as much respect as they have all season after dominating Denver. It’s a big reason why I think the Chargers are showing great value in this matchup.

Over the last 5 weeks the Rams have upset the Seahawks, 49ers and Broncos, which is a big time accomplishment. However, the big key here is they haven’t won consecutive games all season. They followed up their win over Seattle with a 7-34 loss at Kansas City and their 13-10 win at San Francisco with a 14-31 loss at Arizona. I’m expecting that trend to repeat itself this week in San Diego. St Louis laid everything they had on the line against the Broncos and I just don’t see them being able to bring that same intensity on the road against a hungry Chargers team.

San Diego might not be viewed as one of elites anymore, but this is still a very good football team. You also can’t overreact to their close-call against the Raiders. Those are two division rivals who have a history of playing closely contested games. This team is poised to breakout of their recent slump and with the schedule they have coming up (@Ravens, Patriots, Broncos, @49ers & @Chiefs), they know this is a game they have to win to give them a realistic shot at making the playoffs.

One of the things that has hurt the Chargers this season has been the inconsistency in the running game, but they should see a spike in their run production down the stretch with Ryan Matthews back from injury. San Diego also has a big time talent at quarterback in Philip Rivers and the Chargers short passing attack is a perfect fit for a Rams defense that likes to bring a lot of pressure up front. Adding to this is the fact that St Louis is just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 road games against teams who are completing 64% or better of their pass attempts.

There's also a strong system in play. Road teams off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog after the first month of the season are just 29-58 ATS since 1983. That's a 67% system in favor of the Chargers. Take San Diego!

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Nov 23, 2014
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks
-6½-113
  at  PINNACLE
Won
$100
Play Type: Top Premium

5* NFC West Game of the Year on Seahawks -

With Seattle’s loss to the Chiefs last week, there are those that are questioning whether this team is capable of even getting back to the playoffs. I believe they still have a realistic shot at winning the division and I’m expecting their best effort of the season when they take the field against the Cardinals on Sunday.

Seattle has one of the best homefield advantages in the NFL and they have had this game against the Cardinals circled since the schedule came out. Arizona snapped the Seahawks 14-game home winning streak last season with a shocking 17-10 win. I look for Seattle to get their revenge and come out looking to send a message to the Cardinals.

While Arizona was able to hold off the Lions last week behind backup quarterback Drew Stanton, who has taken over as the starter with Carson Palmer out for the year, I don’t think this team is capable of sustaining their early success with Stanton as their signal caller, especially on the road.

One of the big keys that I think is getting overlooked is the Cardinals have been benefited from a favorable road schedule. While they are 3-1 away from home, two of their wins came against a couple of bad teams in the Giants and Raiders and the other was against the Cowboys who were without Tony Romo. Their lone loss was a 20-41 beating at the hands of the Broncos. This is clearly their biggest test outside of going to Denver.

Another important factor here is that Arizona’s defense has been so successful this year because of their ability to stop the run. While they may be able to slow down Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson, I don’t see them being able to contain them. The Cardinals are going to have to focus so much on stopping the run that it’s going to open up big plays down the field in the passing game. Adding to this is the fact that I don’t think Seattle is going to have to score a ton of points to win here by a touchdown, as I simply don’t see Arizona’s offense being able to do much of anything.

There’s a big time system backing Seattle and their defense. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points who are a poor rushing team (70-95 yards/game) against a team with a strong run defense (70-95 yards/game) are just 7-33 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 83% system in favor of the Seahawks. Take Seattle!

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