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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 29, 2016
Kansas vs Texas Tech
Kansas
+28 -105 at 5Dimes
Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on Kansas + 

Oddsmakers have no choice here but to inflate this line on the Red Raiders. The betting public wants nothing to do with Kansas, who has gone a horrific 2-22 over their last 24 games. Not to mention they are just 4-11 against the spread in their last 15.

Texas Tech has some serious offensive fire-power. The Red Raiders come in averaging 61.0 ppg on a ridiculous 679 yards/game. The betting public is going to see this and lay the points without hesitating. Especially, after seeing the Jayhawks only managed 7-points in their last game at Memphis. I'm not saying Memphis is an elite defense, but the Tigers do rank 16th (Top 30 vs both run and the pass) in the country in total defense after the first 4 weeks of the season. 

The thing is that Texas Tech doesn’t have a great defense. The Red Raiders come in giving up 5 yards/carry on the ground and 7.9 yards/pass attempt. Kansas has a history of covering the number against teams who struggle defensively. The Jayhawks are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game.

Another big concern I have here with Texas Tech is how motivated they are going to be for this game. Kansas doesn’t exactly put fear into their opponents and the focus might not be there coming off a bye.

You also have to look at how competitive the Jayhawks have been in this series. Last year they only lost by 10-points as a 33-point dog. The previous year they lost by just 13 as a double-digit dog at Texas Tech. Only once in the last 6 meetings have the Red Raiders beat Kansas by more than 28 points.

It’s no secret that Texas Tech’s strength offensively is their passing attack. While I’m not saying Kansas’ secondary is top notch, it’s been decent so far. Believe it or not they have the 5th ranked pass defense in the country, giving up only 135.0 ypg. A lot of that is because teams have been just running all over them, but Texas Tech can be stubborn and force the passing game even when they have a big edge on the ground. Opposing quarterbacks are only completing 47.6% of their attempts against them on the season. They also are allowing just 4.8 yards/pass attempt.

They aren’t going to hold the Red Raiders to those marks. However, if they can limit the big plays through the air, it increases their chances of covering. I wouldn’t be surprised if Texas Tech didn’t keep this one pretty vanilla on offense. There’s no reason to open up the playbook against an inferior opponent. Especially with the schedule they have looming. After this game the Red Raiders schedule goes like this: @ Kansas State, W Virginia, Oklahoma, @ TCU, Texas, @ Oklahoma St. 

Lastly, Road underdogs of 21.5 or more points who have failed to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record, are 92-44 (68%) ATS since 1992. Take Kansas! 

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Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Sep 29, 2016
Rays vs White Sox
UNDER 7.5 -105 Lost
$105.0
Play Type: Premium

4* MLB Over/Under Total No Brainer on Rays/White Sox UNDER

I really like the value we are getting with the total in tonight's AL showdown between the White Sox and Rays. Neither offense is going to be feeling great about themselves after last night's game, which Chicago won 1-0 with the two teams combining for a mere 8 hits. Not only do we have two of the better starters taking the mound for these two respective teams, but conditions also favor a low-scoring game. 

Winds are expected to be blowing in from left field at over 15 mph and only getting stronger as the game moves on. Temperatures are also expected to be in the low 60's, which will also keep the ball from carrying. That's going to let Tampa Bay's Chris Archer and Chicago's Jose Quintana go after hitters. 

Archer had a miserable first half of the season, but has looked a lot more like the Cy Young candidate that we expected to see all year of late. He comes in with a 3.72 ERA and 1.138 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Archer has allowed 3 or less runs in 7 straight starts and 11 of his last 12 overall. Quintana has been rock solid all season, as he comes in with a 3.21 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 31 starts. He's been especially good at home, where he's got a 2.76 ERA and 0.931 WHIP in 13 starts. Take the UNDER! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Sep 29, 2016
Connecticut vs Houston
Connecticut
+30 -110 at BMaker
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS Annihilator on Connecticut + 

Even with the massive spread, books know they are going to get a lot of action on this game. The betting public has a hard time not playing these weekday games. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing the public money will be all on the Cougars.

They really have no choice here but to set a high number with the opponent being Connecticut. The Huskies aren’t a popular team and aren’t perceived to be any good. The public would much rather lay the points with a team like Houston than stomach backing the dog. Especially, when that team hasn’t covered a game all season.

While it’s been a rough go for Connecticut against the number, this team could easily be 3-1. The Huskies had a 24-21 lead late in the 4th quarter at Navy, but ended up losing 24-28. They also played well in their loss against Syracuse. They had a 23-19 edge in first downs and controlled the clock for 38 minutes and 30 seconds. The difference in the game being a 22-yard interception for a touchdown late in the 3rd quarter.

I know Houston isn’t going to overlook the Huskies after what happened last year. However, four touchdowns is a big number to be laying in a conference game. At the same time, Connecticut is going to be up for this game. They have a chance to show to play in the national spotlight against a highly ranked team. People also discredit their win over Houston last year, due to Greg Ward Jr. not playing.

Connecticut is holding teams to just 22.5 ppg and only 381 ypg. While not great, defense is one of the strengths of this team. Houston did struggle offensively a couple weeks ago against Cincinnati. The Cougars actually trailed 12-16 in the 4th quarter. Turnovers by the Bearcats late led to a very misleading 40-16 win. UConn isn't a team that's going to lay down, even if they are down big late. With a potential showdown against undefeated Navy on deck, I think the Cougars call off the dogs late in this one. 

The run defense for Houston has been outstanding of late. They have held each of their last 3 opponents to 33 yards or less. However, they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. It's also important to note that UConn has the ability to throw the ball. The Huskies come in completing 67.5% of their pass attempts against teams who on average are only allowing opposing QB's to complete 58.8%. 

We also find a solid system in play favoring a fade of the Cougars. Home favorites that are allowing 225 or less total yards in their last 3 games are 9-31 (22%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Connecticut! 

Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Sep 29, 2016
Dolphins vs Bengals
Dolphins
+7½ -104 at pinnacle
Lost
$104.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* Dolphins/Bengals TNF Vegas Insider Top Play on Dolphins +

I think the value here is clearly on the Dolphins catching a touchdown. The perception of the Dolphins took a big hit last week when they needed overtime to beat the Browns at home. That performance will make it hard on the public to back Miami on short rest against the Bengals.

After opening with a road win over the Jets, the Bengals have lost back-to-back games. They fell 16-24 at Pittsburgh in Week 2 and this past Sunday lost at home 17-29 to Denver. Those aren’t considered bad losses in the eyes of the public. Instead they see this as a bounce back spot for Cincinnati.

While that may be the case, I think the Bengals came into this season overvalued. They lost a lot of key weapons offensively and the defense has been on the decline since Mike Zimmer left town.

Miami didn’t play their best game against the Browns, but they could have easily covered. The Dolphins had a 24-13 lead in the 4th quarter. They also spotted Cleveland 7-points with an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

The other thing to keep in mind with Miami and their 1-2 start, is they too have two quality losses. The Dolphins arguably should have won at Seattle in the opener and played New England tough on the road.

I think these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than this spread would indicate. Miami is averaging 21.3 ppg offensively against teams that are only giving up 18.4 ppg. Cincinnati on the other hand is only averaging 18.7 ppg against teams that are allowing 22.3 ppg.

The big key here for me is the Dolphins ability to move the ball through the air on offense. Ryan Tannehil is thriving under new head coach Adam Gase. He’s completing 64.6% of his attempts for just under 285 yards/game. He’s also averaging a healthy 7.9 yards/pass attempt.

Cincinnati’s secondary was exposed last week by Trevor Siemian and the Broncos. Siemian completed 23 of 35 attempts for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns. Averaging 8.91 yards/pass attempt. Keep in mind that was against a desperate Bengals defense who were fighting to avoid a 1-2 start. Not to mention it came on their home field.

It’s hard to put away a strong passing team like the Dolphins and we got a system in play to back it up. Road teams in a game involving two strong passing teams (7.3 or more yards/pass attempt), who averaged 7 or more yards/attempt in their last game are 33-11 (75%) against the spread over the last 5 seasons. Take Miami! 

SERVICE BIO

Boyd is a former collegiate golfer and University of Iowa Law grad that ensures you success in every sport he covers. Jimmy's quality sports selections with game-breaking analysis make him a major force in the handicapping industry for years to come.

Here are a few of his top plays:

No Brainer: This is one of Jimmy’s highest rated plays. After reading his write-up on the game you will see why this play’s title is so fitting. These picks are reserved for major mismatch advantages and strong value plays.

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All of Jimmy’s picks get monitored around the web. Jimmy is one of the very few handicappers that have actually earned the stripes to be regarded as a top Industry player. There are not many handicappers in the industry that can match his long term success rates. Take a look at some of his prior accomplishments:

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