Jimmy Boyd Jimmy Boyd

#7 Capper 2014! Jimmy is on an Amazing 207-167 (55%) NCAAF Run, a 62-40 (61%) NFL Hot Streak and is 27-12 (69%) L39 MLB!

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FREE PICKS
Matchup Selection W/L
NFL  |  Oct 26, 2014
Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns
Oakland Raiders
+7-120
  at  BOVADA
in 16h

Free Pick on Oakland Raiders +

There’s definitely some value on Oakland in this matchup. Prior to the season the Browns were expected to be a 4.5-point favorite. Now we see them laying a touchdown following an ugly 6-24 loss at Jacksonville last week. Sure the Browns whooped up on the Steelers a couple weeks back, but their other two wins have come by a combined 3 points and one of those they had to rally from a 25-point deficit. Cleveland is a lot closer to a 1-5 team than what most people think and it’s a big reason why I’m taking this awful Oakland team getting a touchdown.

The Raiders have shown some life since returning from their Week 5 bye, which also was when they fired head coach Dennis Allen and promoted Tony Sporano to interim head coach. They gave the Chargers all they could handle in a 28-31 loss in Week 6 and this past Sunday lost by a final of just 13-24 to the now 5-1 Cardinals.

One of the big reasons why I like the Raiders to at least keep this one close enough to cover, is the Browns have not been good defensively. Which is a surprise, considering most thought that would be their strength this season. Cleveland comes in ranked 17th against the pass (241.5 ypg) and are dead last against the run (155.5 ypg). Even though Oakland is dead last in rushing (69.3 ypg), there’s reason to be optimistic that they will have some success on the ground against Cleveland. The Browns gave up 185 yards and 2 scores to Jacksonville last week, who even after that performance comes into this week ranked 30th in the league in rushing at 86.0 ypg.

I also have some major concerns with the Cleveland offense, which looked lost in their first game without starting center Alex Mack. Brian Hoyer completed just 16 of 41 attempts for 215 yards and was sacked 3 times, while the Browns rushing attack accounted for just 69 yards on 30 attempts (2.3 yards/carry). Oakland isn’t a defensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but neither is Jacksonville. If the offense struggles like it did against the Jaguars, forget the cover, the Raiders could be looking at their first win of the season.

There’s a strong system in play favoring a fade of the Browns. Home favorites who are allowing 130+ rushing yards/game after a contest where they were outrushed by 75 or more yards are just 89-144 ATS since 1983. That's a 72% system in favor of the Raiders. Take Oakland!

#7 Ranked Handicapper in 2014! Jimmy Boyd went a *Perfect 3-0 Last Sunday* is currently on on an AMAZING 62-40 (61%) Run Over L102 NFL Selections! If you are serious about showing a profit on the pro gridiron, make sure you get your hands on Boyd's Week 8 NFL Sunday Power Pack (3 plays)! This includes his 5* AFC Game of the Year, plus you will also receive his 4* NFL Week 8 ATS No Brainer & NFL Undervalued Underdog! Each of these plays individually would cost you roughly $125, but with this special offer you get them all for the the low price of $59.97! That's OVER A 50% DISCOUNT! That's not all. You are GUARANTEED TO PROFIT or you will receive Jimmy's NFL play on Monday for FREE!

YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
MLB  |  Oct 25, 2014
Kansas City Royals vs. San Francisco Giants
San Francisco Giants
-124
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

4* Giants/Royals World Series G4 Heavy Hitter on Giants -

The Royals won the race to the 7th inning in Game 3, but I look for the Giants to pull even with a win at home tonight. Prior to losing Friday, San Francisco had won 6 straight at home in the World Series and were 8-1 in their last 9 playoff home games overall. I'll take my chances that the Giants won't lose 2 in a row at home, especially with Kansas City starting lefty Jason Vargas. San Francisco is 7-1 in their last 8 home games against a left-handed starter.

Taking the mound for the Giants will be Ryan Vogelsong, who despite a mediocre 3.96 ERA and 1.288 WHIP overall in 34 starts this season, pitched well at home. Vogelsong had a 3.06 ERA and 1.104 WHIP over 18 home starts. San Francisco is 21-10 in his last 31 starts as a home favorite. Vogelsong has also gone an impressive 22-7 in his last 29 starts against a team with a winning record of 54% to 62%.

There's also a strong system in play telling us to fade the Royals. Underdogs who have committed 1 or less errors in 15 straight games and are scoring 4.2 or less runs/game against a team with a strong bullpen ERA of 3.33 or better are just 45-108 since 1997. That's a 71% system in favor of the Giants. Take San Francisco!

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Oct 25, 2014
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Boston Bruins
-110
  at  BETONLINE
Won
$100
Play Type: Premium

3* Bruins/Maple Leafs NHL Money Line Smash on Bruins -

While the Bruins are going to be without injured All-Star defenseman Zdeno Chara, I don't see it stopping them from continuing their dominance over the Maple Leafs. Boston has gone an impressive 15-5-1 in their last 21 meetings against Toronto, outscoring the Maple Leafs during this stretch by a wide 80-46 margin. While the defense could struggle a little bit without Chara, the offense should be able to make up it. Boston has scored 15 goals over their last 4 games and will be going up against a Toronto defense that has allowed 3 or more goals in 4 of their 7 games this season. There's also something about playing on Saturday that brings out the best in the Bruins. Boston is 23-6 over their last 29 games on Saturday. They are also 38-14 in their last 52 against a team with a losing record and 43-19 in their last 62 when playing with a full day of rest. These trends combine to form a massive 73% (104-39) system in favor of the Bruins. Take Boston!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Ole Miss vs. LSU
Total
45 un-105
  at  BOVADA
Won
$100
Play Type: Free

Free Pick on LSU/Ole Miss UNDER

I'm expecting a defensive showdown Saturday night in Baton Rouge. The Tigers have had their defensive struggles this season, but are coming off a dominating performance against Kentucky last week. LSU held the Wildcats to just 3 points and 217 yards of total offense. A lot of people are writing off the Tigers after a couple of poor showing against Mississippi State and Auburn, but those are two of the most explosive offenses in the country. Ole Miss may be better than both of those teams, but it's not because of their offense. It's be big reason why the Rebels are only listed as a 3.5-point favorite.

I know the Tigers lost at home to the Bulldogs earlier this season, but don't let that fool you into thinking LSU isn't the same dominant team at home from year's past. That's just one game. Tiger Stadium is still one of the most difficult places in the country for opposing teams to come away with a win and I expect maximum effort here from LSU.

We have see the Ole Miss offense struggle against strong defensive teams on numerous occasions before breaking through with a couple of late scores. The Rebels had just 7 points going into the 4th quarter against Boise State and Memphis and just 10 versus Alabama. All 3 of those games finished UNDER the total.

I've went into detail on why I'm not expecting Ole Miss to put up a lot of points, only because there's really not a lot of explanation needed to why LSU will struggle to score. Ole Miss has one of the elite defenses in the country and couldn't matchup up better against a Tiger offense that is one dimensional with the run. The Rebels are 5th in the country against the run, giving up just 97.1 ypg. They are also allowing just 2.9 yards/carry against teams average 4.4.

UNDER is 13-3 in Ole Miss' last 16 road games after forcing 3 or more turnovers in their last game and 15-5 in LSU's last 20 home games after they gained 125 or less passing yards last time out.

We also see a strong system in play. The UNDER is 42-16 with a total of 42.5 to 49 points when you have a home team that allowed 3 points or less in the 1st half of their last game in a contest between two teams who outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game. That's a 72% system. Take the UNDER!

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Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Ohio State
-13½-106
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$106.0
Play Type: Premium

3* Ohio St/Penn St Big Ten Main Event on Ohio St -

After taking a closer look into this matchup, I just don't see how the Nittany Lions will be able to keep it close against the Buckeyes. Ohio State's early loss to Virginia Tech seems to have lit a fire under this team and the Buckeyes have consistently been undervalued because of it.

Ohio State comes in 5-1 ATS and are absolutely rolling offensively. In their last 4 games the Buckeyes are averaging a ridiculous 56.0 ppg and have outscored the opposition during this stretch by a combined 224 to 69.

Penn State got off to an impressive 4-0 start, but after back-to-back losses to Northwestern at home and on the road against Michigan, who are two below-average teams, it's pretty clear the Nittany Lions are not in the same league as Ohio State.

Offensively the Nittany Lions have been a complete mess and it's a big reason why I feel confident laying 14 on the road, even with Penn State getting an extra week to prepare. The Nittany Lions have 90th ranked offense in the country (375.5 ypg). They just aren't built to play in a shootout and I don't like their chances of rallying if they fall behind early.

I would argue that this year's Ohio State is on par, if not better than last years, while Penn State is clearly down a few notches. That's important to note, because last year the Buckeyes rolled the Nittany Lions 63-14 with a massive 686 to 357 advantage in total yards. Adding to this is the fact that Ohio State has covered 6 of the last 8 in the series, so this wouldn't be the first time the books have set the number too low in this matchup.

Penn State is 11-26 ATS since 1992 against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 17+ points/game, while Ohio State is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 versus teams who control the ball for 32 or more minutes per game. The Nittany Lions are also just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 when they come in having rushed for 125 yards or less in each of their last 4 games. These trends combine to form a strong 74% (66-23) system in favor of the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Alabama vs. Tennessee
Alabama
-17-110
  at  BETONLINE
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF SEC No Doubt ATS Rout on Alabama -

It took a little longer than expected, but the Crimson Tide finally looked like the best team in the country in last week's 59-0 win over Texas A&M. Knowing that they need to keep winning in impressive fashion to make their case for the 4-team playoff, I see no reason why the Crimson Tide won't go into Tennessee and win by more than 3 scores.

The Volunteers are a much-improved team, but they are not ready to compete with big boys in the SEC. That was evident in last week's 3-34 loss at Ole Miss. I know the Rebels defeated Alabama, but I still believe the Crimson Tide are the better team. Tennessee simply doesn't have the offensive fire-power to keep pace with an Alabama offense that is clicking on all cylinders after putting up over 600 yards of offense on the Aggies.

Each of the last two meetings between these two teams have resulted in an Alabama blowout win. The Crimson Tide won 44-13 at Tennessee as a 19-point favorite in 2012 and last year rolled over the Volunteers 45-10 as a 28-point favorite. It's simply asking too much for Tennessee to keep this game within 20-points.

The Volunteers are just 16-30 ATS in their last 46 home games played during week 5 through 9 of the season, which is typically when you see almost exclusively conference opponents. Adding to this is the fact that Tennessee is just 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record and 3-13 ATS in their last 15 home games against strong defensive teams who are allowing 14 or less points/game. Alabama on the other hand is 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games in the month of October.

There's also a strong system in play on the Crimson Tide. Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who have allowed 125 or less rushing yards in their last 3 games against an opponent that was just outrushed by 150 or more yards are 28-9 ATS over the last 10 seasons. That's a 76% system in favor of the Crimson Tide. Take Alabama!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Total
65 ov-109
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

3* Big 12 NCAAF Total Dominator on Oklahoma St/W Virginia OVER

I believe we are catching a good number here due to both of these finishing below the total in each of their last 3 games. Last time these two teams met in Stillwater, they combined for 89 points in a 55-34 win for the Cowboys. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw a very similar outcome in 2014.

Oklahoma State is no where near as bad offensively as what we saw last week against TCU. Prior to that game the Cowboys had scored at least 27 points in each of their previous 6 games and 4 of those saw them score 35+. What you can't overlook here is that West Virginia is not as strong defensively on the road as they are at home. The Mountaineers are giving up just 27.1 points and 382 yards on the season, yet are giving up an average of 34.7 points and 517 yards on the road. Adding to this is the fact that Oklahoma State is a much stronger team offensively at home than on the road. They are scoring 41.2 points on 471 yards at home, compared to just 33.1 points and 397 yards on the season.

As for West Virginia their offense has traveled well and Oklahoma State's offense hasn't been a whole lot better at home compared to on the road. No reason not to expect the Mountaineers to come close to their season average of 37.3.

OVER is 2-1 in the Mountaineers 3 road games this season and 2-1 in the Cowboys 3 home games this season. We also see that the OVER is 12-3 in Oklahoma State's last 15 after a 2 game road trip, 37-17 in their last 54 conference home games and 17-5 in their last 22 with a line of +3 to -3.  We also see that the OVER is 24-6 in the Cowboys last 30 home games against a strong offensive team that's averaging 425 or more total yards/game.

Strong system in play as well. OVER is 41-15 in games where you have a team who allowed 6.25 or more yards/play in their last game (Cowboys) against an opponent who has gained 450 or more total yards in each of their last 4 games. That's a 73% system on this one to finish above the mark. Take the OVER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Memphis vs. SMU
Total
49½ un-102
  at  PINNACLE
Lost
$102.0
Play Type: Premium

3* NCAAF Over/Under Total Annihilator on SMU/Memphis UNDER

This may seem like a low total for a game that involves SMU and their awful defense, but I believe the books have set it low for good reason. SMU has scored 6 or fewer points in all put one game this season, including just 6-points last week against a bad Cincinnati defense. Memphis is strong defensively and have had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, giving little reason to expect SMU's offense will be able to do much of anything.

If Memphis wanted to, they could potentially eclipse this total on their own, but there's no reason for the Tigers to run up the score. Look for Memphis to be content running the ball and moving the chains on the ground, which plays right into their strength, as they come in averaging 48 rush attempts per game. As you know, lots of running typically leads to a quick game that finishes under the total.

I also wouldn't be surprised if Memphis jumped out to a huge lead early and got some of their backup players some playing time. Keep in mind they have a quick turnaround with a home game against Tulsa on Friday.

It's also worth noting that Memphis hasn't been as effective offensively on the road. The Tigers come in averaging 33.7 points and 429 yards per game on the season, yet are scoring just 26.3 points on 394 yards away from home. Coupled with a strong defense it's a big reason why we have seen the UNDER go 7-2 in Memphis' last 9 road games.

There's also a strong system in play favoring this game to go below the mark. The UNDER is 31-11 over the last 5 seasons when you have a total of 42.5 to 49 points with a road team playing with 2 or more weeks of rest. That's a 74% system. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
Temple vs. Central Florida
Total
48 un-118
  at  PINNACLE
Tie
Play Type: Premium

4* American Athletic Total of the Month on UCF/Temple UNDER

I'm expecting a very low scoring game here, as we have two bad offensive teams against two strong defenses. Temple comes in with the 94th ranked offense (370.7 ypg), yet are a respectable 31st in total defense (345.3 ypg). There's an even bigger difference for UCF, which is 121st in total offense (291.0 ypg) and 20th in total defense (326.2 ypg).

Just looking at the points allowed for both of these teams, it wouldn't come as a surprise if we didn't see either team reach 20 points in this one. Temple is allowing just 16.0 ppg on the road and UCF is only giving up 14.7 ppg at home. Even if both teams give up a touchdown more than what their average, that comes out to just 45 points, which still has us under a field of the current total.

You might think this is a good spot for the Knight's offense against a Temple defense that is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 59.3% of their passes, but that puts us in a strong situation for this one to go below the mark. The UNDER is 21-9 in UCF's last 30 home games against teams who are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 58% or more of their pass attempts.

There's also a strong system in play here. The UNDER is 69-128 in games where you have a team that committed 3 or more turnovers in their last game against an opponent who had a turnover margin of -2 or worse in each of their last two. The key here is that this system comes into play for both teams, making it that much stronger. It's a 65% system both ways. Take the UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
South Carolina vs. Auburn
Auburn
-19-110
  at  BOVADA
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Premium

4* NCAAF Vegas Insider Game of the Month on Auburn -

I look for Auburn to rebound from their first loss of the season with a blowout win at home against the Gamecocks. The Tigers fell behind 0-21 in the first quarter of a 23-38 road loss to Mississippi State, thank to two turnovers and a missed field goal in their first four possessions. I still believe Auburn is one of the elite teams in the country and should have no problem winning by 3 scores against a South Carolina team that simply isn't very good.

The Gamecocks have a win over Georgia at home on their resume, but outside of that victory this team has not been impressive inside the SEC. South Carolina got embarrassed by Texas A&M, lost at home to Missouri and failed to beat Kentucky on the road. Auburn's two home conference games have resulted in blowout wins over Arkansas (45-21) and LSU (41-7), both of which I believe are better teams than the Gamecocks.

Offensively the Tigers feature a potent attack and it's no secret that they are at their best when they can have success on the ground. That certainly doesn't figure to be a problem against South Carolina and their 87th ranked run defense that's giving up 181.7 ypg and 5.3 yards/carry. Keep in mind that Auburn is averaging 5.6 yards/carry (6.2 at home) against teams that are only giving up an average of 4.2 yards/carry.

The other big key here is that the Tigers have a strong enough defense to create the separation needed to cover a big spread like this. Auburn is 24th in the country in total defense (333.7 ypg) and have done a good job against both the run (120.7 ypg, 24th) and the pass (213.0 ypg, 38th).

What I really like about Auburn is that they have a huge scheduling advantage here. The Tigers were off last week, which gives them two full weeks to stew over their loss to the Bulldogs and prepare for South Carolina.

Auburn is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 when playing against a team with a winning record, 9-1 ATS in their last 10 against teams who average 4.75 or more yards/carry, 8-1 in their last 9 after playing in a game where 60+ combined points were scored and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 37 or more points. These trends combine to form a dynamite 91% (31-3) system in favor of the Tigers. Take Auburn!

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-F  |  Oct 25, 2014
West Virginia vs. Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
-1-109
  at  BMAKER
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Top Premium

5* Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma State -

I’m not surprised that we have seen a big shift in the spread of this game after what transpired last week (Cowboys were 19-point favorites before the season started). After Oklahoma state got embarrassed by TCU 42-9 and West Virginia stunned Baylor 41-27, the line is down to basically a pick’em. I believe it’s created some incredible value on the Cowboys at home.

Oklahoma State is going to be extremely motivated off that ugly loss to TCU, which was their first real bad performance of the season. Keep in mind their only other defeat came against then No. 1 Florida State by a final of just 31-36. Things just didn’t go there way against the Horned Frogs.

I’ll admit that I didn’t expect West Virginia to win outright against Baylor, but I wasn’t shocked that they played well at home. There’s just something about Morgantown and Mountaineer Field that makes it difficult for opposing Big 12 teams to play well, especially when it’s a big game. What you can’t overlook after a big win like that is how much West Virginia has struggled on the road. While they are 2-0 in true road games this season, they won at Maryland 40-37 on a last second field goal and had to erase a 14-point 4th quarter deficit to leave Texas Tech with a 37-34 win. Oklahoma State is better than both of those teams and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cowboys won here going away.

The Cowboys loss to TCU was their worst defeat in six seasons and the first time in 59 games that they went without a touchdown. The offense should get back on track against a Mountaineers defense that is allowing 34.7 points and 517 yards of total offense on the road. West Virginia has been especially bad versus the run on the road, giving up an average of 223 yards/game and 5.9 yards/carry. They are also allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.4% of their passes for an average 7.5 yards/completion. Add in the huge letdown spot for West Virginia and you can see why the books still have Oklahoma State listed as the favorite. The Cowboys are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 home games after being outgained by 125 or more total yards and 17-3 in their last 20 home games off a loss by 21 or more points.

There’s a strong system in play telling us to fade the Mountaineers based on last week’s big win over Baylor. Road teams off an upset win as a home underdog of 7 or more points are a mere 8-32 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 over the last 10 seasons. That's a 80% system in favor of the Cowboys. Take Oklahoma State!

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