Seemingly every single year, the Oregon State Beavers take on some of the best mid-major teams in the nation. This year is no exception, as this week’s duel with the TCU Horned Frogs marks the first of two major battles with non BCS conference schools on the slate. Check out three keys for the game that will decide whether TCU takes its first step towards a repeat showing in the BCS or if the Beavers spoil the party.

Oregon State vs. TCU Key #1: Can anyone stop the Rodgers brothers?

When you’re talking about Oregon State football over the last three seasons, you have to start by talking about James and Jacquizz Rodgers. Simply put, these two are unbelievable. Over the last two years, Jacquizz has rushed for 2,697 yards, hauled in 117 passes, and received for 925 more yards to go with his 35 scores. James, over the last three years has 151 receptions, 1,692 receiving yards, 1,173 rushing yards, 151 punt return yards, 1,551 kick return yards, and a grand total of 24 scores. That’s a ton of yardage and a slew of scores. TCU has one of the best defenses in the land, but that doesn’t mean it’s ready to stop this duo.

Oregon State vs. TCU Key #2: Will TCU be able to replace two top notch draft picks?

Gary Patterson has done a fantastic job assembling a top notch defense at TCU, but this past year, he lost out on both Jerry Hughes and Darryl Washington, both of which were Top 50 picks in the NFL Draft. Those two were terrors for the purple and black defense, which ranked #1 in the country in total ‘D’ last year at 239.7 yards per game. If the eight returning starters from this unit can mesh, the Horned Frogs are going to be incredibly dangerous.

Oregon State vs. TCU Key #3: Does Andy Dalton have the ability to be a big time quarterback?

We already know that Dalton is fantastic. He led one of the best offenses in the nation last year and was incredibly efficient both with his arm (2,756 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs) and his legs (512 yards, 3 TDs). However, with leading rusher Joseph Turner lost to graduation, Dalton is probably going to be called upon more, especially early in the season, to make things happen with his arm. If the Horned Frogs think they’re winning this game, they had better get some great play from their offensive leader.

Unless the Rodgers brothers go nuts, the Beavers are going to have a tough time competing in this one. TCU’s defense is still fantastic, but the offense ranked fifth in the nation last year in scoring, something that is often overlooked. Getting to 30 or so will be enough for the Frogs to walk away with a huge victory against a ranked BCS conference foe that could pad the BCS dream. If not, Oregon State can dash TCU’s hopes of playing in a premier bowl game, and that’s a risk that Patterson and company can’t afford to take.

Oregon State vs. TCU Score Prediction: TCU 41 – Oregon State 24

All picks are located below. The video for these picks will be out tomorrow.

1. Vikings -200 to make the playoffs

2. Falcons +200 to win NFC South

3. Falcons -120 to make the playoffs

4. Packers -200 to make the playoffs

5. Steelers -120 to make the playoffs

6. KC Chiefs +375 to make the playoffs

7. KC Chiefs +800 to win AFC West

8. Titans +380 to win AFC South

9. Eagles -130 to MISS the playoffs


NFC Champion Odds Picks:
- Packers +550 to win the NFC
- Saints +450 to win the NFC
- Falcons +1000 to win the NFC

AFC Champion Odds Picks:
- Patriots +600 to win the AFC
- Ravens +700 to win the AFC
- Titans +1400 to win the AFC

The Huskies lost five games in 2009 but the club was just a few plays away from being a top 10 squad. All five of Connecticut’s defeats last season were by four points or less. Still, the Huskies were able to post impressive wins over Notre Dame, South Florida and South Carolina in 2009. Sharp bettors were certainly aware of UConn. The Huskies went 11-2 against the point spread last season. This year, Connecticut could be ready to mount a serious challenge in the Big East.

On offense, junior Jordan Todman leads the attack. He rushed for more than 1,100 yards with 14 scoring runs as a sophomore. The Huskies also have a solid defense. The unit ranked 48th in the country in scoring defense in 2009. Connecticut is viewed as a live underdog for its season opener at Michigan against the Wolverines. The Huskies are just a 3-point underdog against a program that is the winningest in the history of college football.

2. Kansas State Wildcats

In the late eighties, Bill Snyder took over one of the worst programs in all of college football. In one of the remarkable turnarounds in the sport, Kansas State became a consistent winner. From 1993-2003, the Wildcats won nine or more games on ten different occasions. After retiring from the program following the 2005 campaign, Snyder returned to the sidelines last season. The club posted a 6-6 record (7-4 against the spread) under his direction last year.

The Wildcats should be able to reach a bowl game this time around. Senior running back Daniel Thomas is one of the top runners in the Big 12. He gained over 1,200 yards as a junior. As expected, Snyder brought some physical toughness back to Kansas State. After finishing 39th in the country in total defense last season, the unit should take some more steps in 2010. In a game that should be a defensive battle, the Wildcats are a 2-point home favorite over the UCLA Bruins in the season opener.

2010 College Football Over-Under Win Total Picks:

1. Michigan “Over” 7 wins: The best line I could find was at BetUs.com where Michigan was listed at -105 to go OVER 7 wins.


2. South Carolina “Over” 7 wins: You are being asked to lay -140 when you bet the “Over” for South Carolina at BetUs.com


3. Washington “Over” 6 wins: Sportbook.com lists Washington at -190 to go OVER 6 wins, but BetUs.com has the number at 6.5 wins for +110.


4. Arkansas “Over” 8.5 wins: BetED.com is offering +105 to bet the Arkansas Over.


5. Clemson “Under” 7.5 wins: BetUs.com lists Clemson at -125 to bet UNDER 7.5 wins.


6. Penn State “Under” 8.5 wins: BetEd.com lists PSU -120 when you bet UNDER 8.5 wins.


7. Missouri “Under” 7.5 wins: This has great ROI written all over it! BetEd.com lists Missouri at +245 when you bet UNDER 7.5 wins


8. Boise State “Under” 11 wins: Sportsbook.com has the best line with -120 to bet Boise State to go UNDER 11.


9. Nevada “Over” 9.5 wins: Most books list this at even money. See the BetUs.com line here

The pros of going against the public

Generally, the public will back the favorite in an NFL game. The public is also more likely to support a marquee NFL franchise that has a tremendous national following. The Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are a couple of teams that would fit this example. In these kind of instances, the oddsmaker may shade the odds a point or two to anticipate the public money that will come in for a certain side. In other words, there is an element of the betting public that is going to bet a certain way regardless of the line.

The savvy bettor can take advantage of these circumstances. The odds that are inflated for a favorite or public team can enable the sharp player to find some underdogs that have some real value over the course of the season. Many public bettors are conditioned to back the favorite on almost all occasions. Favorites to win the majority of the time. However, favorites only cover the point spread about half the time. The 2009 Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints are a good example of how the public can get carried away by backing a good team. The Saints won and covered the first six games of last season. Obviously, the public sentiment for New Orleans grew each week. After the 6-0 start, the Saints won seven more games in a row. However, the club was just 2-5 against the point spread during this stretch. The public kept focusing on the winning streak without spotting some inflated lines.

The cons of going against the public

Many professional bettors will be wary of the side that the public is betting. The sharp bettors feel that the public isn’t properly handicapping a game. Most serious bettors will break down a game without any bias towards the underdog or favorite. While the sharp player may not feel right about backing the public side in an NFL game, there are times when the public riding a favorite and a pro bettor are going to be on the same side. In some instances, an underdog is too weak to be able to cover an inflated line for the favorite. As mentioned earlier, favorites and underdogs will cover in the NFL at about the same rate.

The perceived value that the pro bettor sees in the underdog getting points against the inflated public line for the favorite is sometimes a mirage. During its 14-0 run to start last season, the Indianapolis Colts went 10-4 against the point spread. The public successfully rode the Colts in an example of what can happen if a pro bettor automatically dismisses the other side.

Entering a new college football betting season, it stands to reason that at least a quarter of the FBS (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams are going to begin the year with a new starting quarterback. Some of these new signal-callers will be starting a college game for the first time while others may have played a little bit in the prior year. It is important to get as much information about these new quarterbacks as possible. For example, how did the player perform in the school’s spring game?

2. Coaching changes

Typically, there will be at least a dozen or so head coaching changes at the FBS level in a typical offseason. Many new coaches are able to make an immediate impact right away. However, some don’t have enough talent in place to work with to make a difference in the first year. While the head coaching changes gain most of the headlines, there are other staff adjustments that can prove to be just as significant. A head coach may stay with his current school while switching offensive and/or defensive coordinators. The new coordinators will usually have different schemes and systems than the previous assistant coaches.

3. Non-conference mismatches

Most BCS conference teams will begin the season with two or three non-conference tilts before getting into conference play. On many occasions, the opening game is against a club that isn’t from a BCS conference. For many of these games, there will be some big point spreads that can range anywhere from 21 to 45 points. Games such as these can be difficult to handicap. The favored BCS team could get out to a big lead and then pull the starters in the second half. In these scenarios, the point spread outcome can be quite unpredictable at times. The bettor needs to be aware of how the BCS teams and its opponents approach these kind of games. Has a BCS team covered these kind of games in recent years?

4. It’s a new season

As teams head into their early season games, the point spreads for these contests are based largely on the prior year. Even after a game or two, oddsmakers can still set a line that can be based a little bit on the previous season. Obviously, teams are going to have a good portion of its roster intact from a prior season. Still, no two teams are going to perform exactly the same from season to season. The bettor needs to realize that the past is just that.

5. Get ahead of the bookmaker

By the middle of the college football season, the various teams throughout the nation will be well known to the bettor and oddsmaker. In other words, there really isn’t much mystery involved to the handicapping process by the middle of October. In the early season, there is a feeling out process. The bookmaker will be way off on several teams and lines in the first few weeks of the season. The bettor has an opportunity to spot these instances before the oddsmaker is able to catch up later in the season.

Ok, onto Saturday NFL Picks. I am traveling today, so expect picks for tonight to be up around 4pm(est).


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1. Chris Ault

Ault and Penn State’s Joe Paterno are the only two active coaches at the FBS level that are in the College Football Hall of Fame. Ault is about to embark on his 26th season as the head coach of the Wolfpack. He has posted a record of 206-96-1 at Nevada. Ault has taken the Wolfpack to a bowl game in each of the last five seasons. The coaching accomplishments at Nevada are quite special for Ault. He was a quarterback at the school in the mid-sixties.

2. Colin Kaepernick

The senior quarterback is one of the top dual threat signal-callers in the nation heading into this season. Kaepernick is the active leader in rushing touchdowns (39) entering the 2010 college football campaign. He has rushed for more than 1,100 yards in each of the last two seasons. Kaepernick can also throw the ball in an effective manner. In his career at Nevada, Kaepernick has thrown 61 TD passes with just 16 interceptions.

3. Vai Taua

There is more to the Nevada offense than Kaepernick. Senior running back Vai Taua is one of the top runners in the nation. He has gained over 2,800 yards over the last two seasons with 25 scoring runs. Tua averaged nearly eight yards per carry in 2009. The Kaepernick-Taua duo enabled the Wolfpack to lead the nation in rushing offense in 2009 while ranking second in the country in total offense.

4. Dontay Moch

There is no doubt that the Nevada defense will have to make some significant strides in 2010. The unit was 96th in the country in total defense while ranking next to last in the nation in passing defense a year ago. However, the Wolfpack defense has an emerging force returning for his senior season. Defensive end Dontay Moch is high on the radar of NFL scouts entering his last year at Nevada. He has recorded 21.5 sacks in his career for the Wolfpack. Moch needs just 7.5 sacks in 2010 to set the career WAC record for sacks.

5. WAC title within reach

Last year, the Wolfpack went 7-1 in conference play. The club’s only defeat came at Boise State. This season, the Broncos will have to face the Wolfpack in Reno. With Kaepernick and Taua motivated to go out with a conference title, Boise State will have a tough time escaping with a victory on November 26th. Nevada should have enough offensive firepower to handle the other foes in the mediocre WAC. The Wolfpack could be undefeated heading into the Boise State matchup. Nevada will have to deal with California (home) and BYU (away) in a couple of difficult non-conference tilts early in the season. However, neither of those squads is ranked in the top 25 to begin the year.