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What have we learned as we head into Week 3 College Football?

September 15, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

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UCLA is much improved

UCLA is out to a 2-0 start both straight up and against the spread. In week 1, they defeated San Diego State 33-14 as an 18 point home favorite. Then they went on the road to play Tennessee as a double digit underdog and won the game outright 19-15. While the offense has struggled a bit, the defense has been superb in the first two weeks of the season. In two games they have given up an average of 242 yards per game and just 77 yards a game on the ground. If Kevin Prince can step up his game, UCLA could definitely be bound for the post-season and maybe pull off some upsets in the Pac 10 conference. All in all, Rick Neuheisel appears to have his team back on track and primed to make a run at a bowl game. See Week 3 Football Picks

Michigan State is overrated

Michigan State opened the season with a cupcake game against Montana State where they won handily 44-3. But last week they were favored by 14.5 points at home against Central Michigan and wound up losing the ball game outright. They were out-gained by 102 yards and lost 29-27. The secondary was absolutely terrible as they gave up 352 yards through the air to Central Michigan. The Spartans are also feeling the loss of star tailback Javon Ringer as they were only able to muster 101 yards rushing for an average of 3.4 yards per carry. Michigan State could be in deep trouble this week against Notre Dame and their potent passing attack. If Dan LeFeavour can put up over 350 yards passing, how many will Jimmy Claussen put up? See Week 3 Football Picks

Virginia is a definite go against team

Virginia opened the season up with a 26-14 loss to Division IAA William and Mary. Then last week, they got absolutely manhandled by TCU in a game that wasn’t as close as the 30-14 score indicated. TCU controlled the game on both sides of the ball and we must point out that both of Virginia’s embarrassing losses came at home. The Cavs have no consistent quarterback and their defense has been extremely poor as well. Al Groh is on the hot seat and I think this will be his final year because this team is flat out bad. Expect Virginia to struggle mightily in ACC conference play. If you can find a reasonable number, go against the Cavaliers. See Week 3 Football Picks

Filed Under: Football Picks Update - Sports Betting Tips, NCAAF Betting News Tagged With: , ,

Odds to win N.L. Cy Young award show Tim Lincecum -200

September 7, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

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The National League CY Young Award figures to go to either one of two pitchers: Tim Lincecum, the reigning NL CY Young award winner or Chris Carpenter. Both have had outstanding seasons but Lincecum has been listed as the favorite at -200. Carpenter on the other hand is a better value pick at +200 and shouldn’t be discredited as he has been nearly flawless in 2009. The only guy who could be any sort of threat to win is Carpenter’s teammate Adam Wainwright but that seems unlikely.

Tim Lincecum -200:

Lincecum has proven over the last two seasons that he is one of if not the best pitcher in all of baseball. The hard throwing right hander is 13-4 with a 2.33 ERA this season thus far. He has gone just 3-2 since the All-Star break but that seems to be the only knock on Lincecum and shouldn’t take too much away from what has been another outstanding season. Along with the great record and ERA is the fact that Lincecum leads the league in strikeouts by a mile with 222 and also complete games with four. If the voters decide on Lincecum for a second straight year, it won’t be a surprise as this guy continues to dominate National League hitters and has his team in the hunt for the wild card as they are just two games behind the Colorado Rockies.

Chris Carpenter +200:

Despite being listed quite a bit behind Lincecum, Carpenter actually has the better numbers as far as winning percentage and ERA. Carpenter is 14-3 with a 2.20 earned run average which is the best in the Major Leagues in both categories. He has been absolutely filthy this year for the Cardinals and has absolutely dominated hitters since the All-Star break. In fact he hasn’t lost a decision in the second half of the season going 7-0 with a 1.85 ERA. The better second half numbers could push voters toward Carpenter and I think he deserves this award just as much as Lincecum. It won’t be a surprise if Carpenter takes home the CY Young as he definitely deserves it. The numbers don’t lie and at +200, Carpenter might be worth a shot.

Other Pitchers to Watch:

Adam Waingright seems to be the only other guy who should draw any attention away from the pitchers listed above. Wainwright leads the league in wins with 16 and is third in ERA. Overall, Wainwright is 16-7 with a 2.47 ERA. The seven losses will likely deter voters away from picking Wainwright so I expect the award to go to either Lincecum or Carpenter but all three have had great seasons.

Betting Odds to win the 2009 National League Cy Young Award are from Sportsbook.com.

Filed Under: Football Picks Update - Sports Betting Tips, MLB Betting News Tagged With: , ,

Betting Advice-Buying Hooks on Key Football Point Spreads

September 5, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment
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NFL Odds

The scoring system in both college and pro football is very unique and unlike any other sport. We all know that the most common numbers of scoring at a particular time of a football game are three and seven as most points come from field goals and touchdowns plus the extra point try. If you look back at all the games over the last ten years, you will find that approximately 2/3 of games are decided by the following numbers: 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 13, and 14. These are your key numbers for football because of the way the scoring system is set up most games will be decided by one of those numbers.

Now how can we take advantage of that you might ask? Well, the emergence of off-shore sports books and their willingness to let you buy points for increased juice, you can buy ½ points when they are presented on one of the key point spreads.

I cannot stress this enough but when you like a team that is favored by 3½, 6½, or 7½, it is absolutely crucial that you buy a ½ point in order to get the line down to one of the key numbers I have discussed earlier. By doing so, you will have to pay 10 cents on the dollar in juice. Therefore if you bet $100 on a team who is minus 3½ but you buy them down to minus 3, you will be risking $120 instead of $110. But trust me, that extra $10 is a cheap price to pay in order to reduce your line because there is a strong chance that your team might win by only 3 points. By buying that half point, you eliminate the chance of getting beat by the nasty hook.

So my advice is this: If your line is a half point higher than one of the key point spread numbers in football wagering, ALWAYS buy the hook for the -120 vigorish. If you push even once a year because of you’re savvy intuition to buy down a spread, it will be worth the extra juice you will be paying throughout the year. Also, some sports betting professionals will even still buy down a half point when the point spread is exactly on one of the key numbers discussed. Therefore if your team is minus 3 points, you can buy them down to 2½ and still get the win if your team is victorious by a field goal margin.

Filed Under: Football Picks Update - Sports Betting Tips, NCAAF Betting News Tagged With: ,

Top 10 Fantasy Football Running Backs

August 30, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

1. Adrian Peterson:

Adrian Peterson is the consensus number one running back by all experts and is projected as the number one overall pick as well. Make no mistake about it, Peterson is an absolute stud and is only entering his third year. The third year is where most players really start to reach their full potential and I expect huge production out of Peterson this year. He finished third in scoring amongst all fantasy running backs but I see him reaching the top spot in 2009. He led the league in rushing with 1,760 yards and also in yards from scrimmage with over 1,800 yards total rushing. Peterson has a big, explosive offensive line to run behind and the Vikings have an added more talent up front. Another reason why I think AP is going to be the top back is that the Vikings will now have a legitimate passing game to keep opposing teams honest. The presence of Brett Favre is going to be great for Peterson’s production and the drafting of Percy Harvin gives the Vikings another playmaker for defenses to key on. In my mind, there’s no doubt that Peterson is the best back in football and his touchdown total should go way up this year as the offense will be much improved as a complete unit. If you get the first pick in your draft, take Peterson.

2. Michael Turner:

Michael Turner was on my radar last year as a great second running back for my fantasy team and boy did he produce. Turner who finally got the chance to be a starter after backing up LaDainian Tomlinson proved he is one of the league’s top backs. He finished second in scoring amongst all fantasy backs with 1,699 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. I don’t expect a drop off with Turner at all as I think the Falcons offense is going to be even better than it was a year ago. Matt Ryan is only going to get better at the quarterback position and the addition of Tony Gonzalez gives defenses another key player to account for in the passing game. The only knock on Turner is his lack of receiving ability as he had only six catches but with the amount of carries he gets, he will rack up plenty of points for fantasy owners. In points per reception leagues, he may drop a little but I still like him as the number two fantasy back as he outshined LT last year after living in his shadow for five years. He’s the number one threat on this offense and should be a stud again this year.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew:

Maurice Jones-Drew is getting a lot of attention this year from fantasy experts as he is looking to prove he is worth the 32 million dollars the Jaguars are going to pay him over the next four years. Jones-Drew finished 9th amongst fantasy running backs in ’08 but his numbers seem bound to improve drastically as he will not be sharing the ball with anyone else now that Fred Taylor is gone. He rushed for 1,389 yards and 12 touchdowns on only 197 carries. There’s no doubt that Jones-Drew is the man in Jacksonville now and I expect him to get over 250 carries this year. That will lead to plenty of more rushing yards and more touchdowns as well. The other key factor that makes Jones-Drew a top tier fantasy back is that he is a great receiver out of the backfield. He led all running backs in receiving yards with 565 yards. I know Torry Holt is not the same player he was a few years ago but his presence should take some heat off of Jones-Drew. If a guy can put up the kind of numbers Jones-Drew did last year splitting time, just imagine what he can do as the full time back in Jacksonville. I’m projecting a big year from Maurice Jones-Drew.

4. DeAngelo Williams:

Believe it or not but DeAngelo Williams was the number one fantasy running back a year ago topping Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in points scored. He had 20 total touchdowns and rushed for over 1,500 yards. Some fantasy experts are down on Williams because he does split carries with Jonathan Stewart and has only turned in one good season in his three years in the league but not me. I think this guy is an absolute stud and will be a top five back for sure. Even though he split time with Stewart, he still had 273 carries and Stewart has been hampered by injury thus far this pre-season. I think if Williams plays like he did last year, Stewart won’t be getting 40% of the carries like he did a year ago but it is a concern and that’s why I have him below Jones-Drew and Michael Turner. It is possible that Williams won’t repeat what he did last year but I still think he will have a big year and is worthy of the number four ranking of fantasy running backs.

5. Matt Forte:

Matt Forte was one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy football season in 2008. He finished fourth amongst all running backs in fantasy scoring as a ROOKIE and has all the tools to get better and better. Forte rushed for over 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns a year ago but was also a major threat in the Bears passing game. He caught 63 balls for 477 yards and also tacked on two receiving touchdowns. I look for Forte to improve upon his touchdown total as the signing of Jay Cutler is going to make the Bears offense much more potent. Forte will have a lot more opportunities to pound the ball into the end zone on the goal line because the Bears are going to score more points this year. There isn’t much not to like about this guy who is entering just his second season with an offense that has a legitimate quarterback who can stretch the field and keep defenses honest. In points per reception leagues, Forte is even more valuable because he is a great receiver and Cutler will definitely use him in the passing game. Forte is a top 5 runner in my book, no doubt about it.

6. Chris Johnson:

Chris Johnson was also another pleasant surprise as a rookie last year for fantasy owners. He rushed for 1,228 yards and nine touchdowns in his first year on just 251 carries. Johnson averaged a whopping 4.9 yards per carry and is in line for more work this season. Jeff Fischer has stated publicly that he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as often as possible especially out in open space. This should cut into the production of Lendale White who split carries with Johnson a year ago. The only concern about Johnson is the fact that White might still get the goal line carries but there have been rumors that Johnson is in line to get more work in that area as well. The other thing I like about Johnson is that the Titans grabbed wide receiver Nate Washington to upgrade the passing game. Washington was a solid contributor in Pittsburgh and is another weapon for opposing defenses to key in on. All in all, this is a guy with tremendous speed and he has a ton of upside heading into his second year. He put up great numbers last year and if he gets more opportunities to run the ball and score this year, he’ll be a great fantasy running back.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson:

LaDainian Tomlinson believe it or not was somewhat of a disappointment last year to fantasy owners as he was the consensus number one overall pick. However, he was hampered by toe and groin injuries throughout the season which seemed to be the cause of his decline in fantasy production. Despite battling through the injuries, he still rushed for 1,110 yards and 11 touchdowns. It does seem that LT might be slowing down a bit as he has been pounding the rock for many years now. The word out of training camp is that he is 100% healthy and that will be the key for Tomlinson to be a top five back in 2009. I don’t think Sproles is going to be a threat to steal carries and this offense is still going to through Tomlinson as long as he is healthy. Tomlinson is a bit of risk as he is showing signs of wear and tear but I think he has at least one more good year left in him and is worthy of the number seven ranking of fantasy backs.

8. Steve Slaton:

Slaton is a guy I am extremely high on this year. As a rookie, he rushed for almost 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns on just 268 carries. There is no doubt that Slaton is the main man in Houston this year and he will be a major factor in a very good offense. I think Matt Schaub is primed to bust out and have a big year. Andre Johnson is one of the best receivers in football which takes attention away from Slaton and doesn’t allow defenses to stack the box with eight guys. Slaton is an explosive player on an explosive offense and entering his second year has tremendous potential. Slaton really came into his own late in the year rushing for over 100 yards in four of the last seven games of the season and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. He will get more of the work this year and thus more fantasy production. This guy is a potential stud and should be even better than a year ago.

9. Frank Gore:

Frank Gore didn’t fare as well as most fantasy owners thought he would last year as he only rushed for 1,036 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, Gore is a duel threat back as he caught 43 passes for 373 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest concern over the last few years with Gore has been his durability. In order for him to be a top ten back, he has got to stay on the field. The good news for potential Gore owners is that new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye is going to run his offense through Gore. If he can hold up, he will have a ton of touches both as a runner and receiver. He’s the main man in San Francisco and if he can stay healthy, he will put up big numbers in Frisco this year. Another concern is the lack of playmakers around Gore. The addition of Michael Crabtree would help if he would just sign already but the 49ers are heading into the season as if Crabtree won’t be there. Defenses will stack the box against Gore but that is nothing new. If they can find consistent quarterback play to take heat off Gore, he has the potential to be a top 10 back.

10. Brandon Jacobs:

Brandon Jacobs could be the steal of the second round in most fantasy football drafts. In just 13 games he ran for 1,089 yards and 15 touchdowns. With the departure of Derrick Ward, he is the main man in New York and will get a lot more than 219 carries a year ago. Jacobs averaged 5.0 yards per carry in ’08 and with a bigger workload his numbers could explode this season. The biggest concern for Jacobs is that the Giants lack a big play receiver. They need Steve Smith and rookie Hakeem Nicks to step up in order to make defenses worry about the pass and not just focus on stopping Jacobs. All in all, Jacobs is in the prime of his career and has proven that he is an absolute stud even while splitting carries. The departure of Ward is huge for Jacobs’ owners as I see him improving upon his yards and touchdowns from a year ago especially if he plays in all 16 games. If he can stay healthy, he has potential to be a premier fantasy back

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Must draft wide receivers for fantasy football

August 30, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

1. Larry Fitzgerald:

Larry Fitzgerald proved last year that he is the best wide receiver in the game in my opinion. He was tied for the league in receiving touchdowns with 12 and caught 96 balls for 1,431 yards. Fitzgerald is still very young and is only going to continue to get better. The Cardinals re-signed quarterback Kurt Warner which means great quarterback play to get Fitzgerald the ball. Warner and Fitzgerald are arguably the best QB-WR tandem in football outside of Brady and Moss. The one concern is that Anquan Boldin will be lined up opposite of Fitzgerald taking away receptions and touchdowns but that wasn’t much of an issue last year. Fitzgerald will still get his as he is still Warner’s go to guy. The Cardinals also spent the off-season upgrading the run game by drafting running back Chris Wells. With defenses having to account for a solid running attack, Fitzgerald should have more one on one situations to exploit. I’m looking for another big year out of Fitzgerald as he plays on one of the most potent offenses in football. Another reason why I love Fitzgerald so much is that he will be playing a very weak schedule in the NFC West and should torch defenses week in and week out.

2. Andre Johnson:

Andre Johnson is another receiver that is likely to go late in the first round of your draft and I won’t argue with that. This guy is a stud especially in point per reception leagues. He snagged 115 balls for 1,575 yards and 8 touchdowns. Johnson will get his yards but the one concern is his lack of touchdowns. Tight end Owen Daniels is the main threat in the end zone for the Houston Texans offense but I expect more TD’s for Johnson this year. A big key for Johnson to rack up more touchdowns and yards will be whether or not quarterback Matt Schaub is healthy and playing well. Schaub has potential to be a very good quarterback and I think he will finally put it all together this year barring any injuries. This is a potent offense and with Slaton pounding the rock, Johnson too could see less double coverage much like Fitzgerald. The main thing to remember is this team is going to score as they have the skill guys to do so and I think Johnson will be a big part of that.

3. Randy Moss:

With the loss of Tom Brady a year ago, Randy Moss’ numbers went way down from his record breaking 2007 season. However, Brady is back and appears ready for action and because of that don’t be surprised is Moss emerges as the number one receiver in fantasy football. Even without Brady, he put up decent numbers with 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns. I still think Moss has another great year in him as he is getting up there in age. With Brady back, the offense seems ready to roll. Moss is now entering his third year in New England and has a great grasp of the offense. I think that will be a big key for Moss to put up huge numbers again. If Brady stays healthy, look out! Moss was very good last year without him but I expect his yards and touchdowns to go way up if Brady can avoid injury. The one concern is that the Patriots don’t have much of a run game but that could be a good thing as they might just let Brady sling the ball all over the field like he did in ’07. Wes Welker is a solid number two receiver and demands defenses’ attention which opens up space for Moss down the field. I like Moss and I almost put him as my number two wide receiver but his age is a bit of a concern.

4. Calvin Johnson:

Calvin Johnson put up great numbers even though he had Dan Orlovsky and others throwing him the ball. Not to mention that there really weren’t any other playmakers on offense for defenses to key in on. Despite all that, he was tied for the league in touchdown receptions with 12 and caught 78 balls for 1,331 yards. This year the quarterback position is much more settled as either Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford will be throwing the ball to Johnson. Kevin Smith is a decent back who should improve as well to take some heat off Johnson. With the supporting cast going to be improved, I don’t see any reason why Johnson’s production will decline. He is a freak of an athlete and is entering his third year, the year where most wide receivers find their stride. I like Johnson a lot but I have him slotted at four because we still have to remember he is on the Lions.

5. Greg Jennings:

Greg Jennings seems to be getting better and better each year. Last season he caught 80 balls for 1,292 yards and 9 touchdowns. His touchdown numbers took a backslide from his 12 TD catches in ’07 but that was because Jennings had to share the ball with Donald Driver. However, this year Jennings has really taken a huge step above Driver as Driver is getting up there in age. He will be the go to guy down the field and in the end zone. I expect him to grab near a dozen touchdowns this year especially if Aaron Rodgers continues to progress. Speaking of Rodgers, let’s not forget that this guy put up huge numbers as his first year as a starter and is moving up the charts of fantasy football quarterbacks. One can only think that Rodgers and Jennings are both going to get better in their second year together. Jennings has averaged almost 16 yards per catch in his career and has tremendous upside. I see the Green Bay offense scoring plenty of points and if Ryan Grant can play to his potential at the running back position, Jennings will have less double teams in his face. I think Jennings is a solid top five fantasy receiver.

6. Roddy White:

Even with a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan, Roddy White finished as the sixth best fantasy wide receiver a year ago. He was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,382 yards. However, he scored just 7 touchdowns as he was the only receiving threat for the Falcons in the red zone and Michael Turner was an absolute beast down near the goal line. White is entering the prime of his career and I think he and Matt Ryan are only going to get better as a tandem. Ryan proved he is a special player in his rookie season and as long as he keeps on playing well, White will have another big year. Another big key is that the Falcons have added Tony Gonzalez which gives them a second receiving option to keep opposing defenses from just keying in on White. This will be a well-balanced team with Turner running the ball and White will get plenty of opportunities to make plays. I like him right here at the number six spot and he could even finish higher if he can improve upon his touchdown total from a year ago.

7. Steve Smith:

Last year the Carolina Panthers had one of the best rushing attacks in football and absolutely hammered the ball down people’s throats. Despite all the yards and touchdowns racked up by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith recorded his second best fantasy season in his career while only playing in 14 games. Smith caught 78 balls for 1,421 yards and 6 touchdowns. He finished fifth amongst fantasy wide receivers and if he can stay healthy, I expect him to have another solid year. The lack of touchdowns is a concern and that’s why I have Smith down a couple slots than most experts. However, he will stretch the field and rack up big time yardage as opponents will really have to focus on stopping the most dangerous rushing attack in football. Jake Delhomme played very well last year and if he can play to his potential, Smith will be an elite fantasy receiver. I like Smith but because of the lack of touchdowns, he doesn’t make my top 5 wide receivers.

8. Reggie Wayne:

Reggie Wayne was a bit of a disappointment for fantasy owners last year as he finished 14th amongst fantasy wide receivers. He had only 1,145 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Wayne is still a very safe pick as he has topped over 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last five seasons. Last year was a down year but I expect him to creep back up into the top 10 in 2009. Anthony Gonzalez should emerge as a solid number two receiver to keep defenses from constantly double covering Wayne which was a major cause of his decline in numbers a year ago. Also, the rushing attack should be better now that Joseph Addai is healthy and the Colts have added a dynamic rookie running back in Donald Brown to the roster. Wayne is a solid player and steady producer. He may not be a top 5 wide receiver but you can be assured he will be in the top 10 with low risk. All in all, I expect Wayne to re-emerge this year as the offense will be better in my opinion. And you can’t argue with a receiver who has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

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2009 College Football Prediction Michigan Wolverines

August 14, 2009 By Ryan Nox 4 Comments

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2009 Michigan College Football Betting Odds: Over 6 Wins -200, Under 6 Wins +150

- Michigan is listed at +1200 to win the BIG 10 in 2009
- Michigan is listed at +12,500 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet pays out $1,250!

Michigan is coming off a horrendous season in which the Wolverines went 3-9 in Rich Rodriguez’s first season. Many expect Michigan to make it to a Bowl Game this year but I think Rich Rod is still a season or two away from post-season play. The Wolverines return 15 starters from last year, ten of which are on offense. The biggest issue was that Michigan didn’t have a quarterback that could effectively run the spread option offense that Rodriguez employs. A lot of people expect freshman, Tate Forcier to be the guy who can turn things around but depending on a freshman in the Big 10 is a little scary.

Meanwhile, the defense lacks depth and experience. Three starting defensive lineman are gone and youngsters such as true freshman William Campbell will be counted on to contribute right away. The linebacking corp is the strength of this unit with Obi Ezeb, Jonas Mouton, and converted safety Stevie Brown all return. The secondary also will depend on youth as well. All in all, I see Michigan with the inexperience they have at quarterback and on defense going at best 5-7 this year. They play at Michigan State, at Illinois, and at Wisconsin, not to mention two tough home games that they won’t be expected to win against Ohio State and Penn State. Throw in a non-conference game against an improved Notre Dame team and you’re looking at a losing season. I’ll take the under 6 games and the hefty juice at +150 for the Wolverines in ’09.

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2009 College Football Predictions Ohio State Buckeyes

August 14, 2009 By Ryan Nox 1 Comment

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2009 Ohio State College Football Betting Odds: Over 9½ Wins -115 , Under 9½ Wins -125

- Ohio State is listed at +150 to win the BIG 10 in 2009
- Ohio State is listed at +1,000 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet pays out $1,000!

Ohio State lost a massive amount of talent to the NFL Draft this past April and a lot of young players will have to step up in order for them to contend for a fifth straight Big Ten Championship. They only return five starters on offense with the biggest losses coming at the skill positions. Chris Wells was a tremendous contributor pounding the rock last year but sophomore Boom Herron is a speedster who should have a nice year for the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes also lost their two top receivers in Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. However, Ohio State still has talent and speed at the position to take over for the departed receivers.

Defensively, the biggest losses came at the linebacker position. The defensive line with stud Thaddeus Gibson should be the best in the big ten and the secondary, even though they lost All-American Malcolm Jenkins, returns two starters should be solid as well. The three toughest games for Ohio State will be USC at home, at Penn State, and at home against Iowa. I think if they can win one of those games, they will cruise to a 10-2 regular season. The rest of the games are very winnable. With that being said I’ll go with the over 9½ wins for the Buckeyes.

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Spotting Incentive to win is key to betting NFL Pre-Season

August 13, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

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The most critical part of betting the NFL Pre-Season point spread is uncovering each team’s incentives to win the ball game. As a bettor, I want my money on the team who really wants to win. Therefore, the first thing I try to uncover is how long each team’s starting players are going to play. This can be a tricky aspect of handicapping the pre-season but is absolutely vital. I scour the local newspapers in all of the team’s hometowns looking for an edge. Often the head coach will flat out tell the media just how long his starters are going to play. The coaches and players comments toward the game are important as well as interviews can unveil a team’s determination to win the game.

Certain coaches can’t stand to lose even if the game means nothing to them at all. They will play their starters longer especially if the team struggled last season and the coach is on the hot seat. Betting on bad teams can be very profitable in the pre-season as they are more likely to play their starters longer in order to improve and create a culture of winning right from the get go. You have to understand each team’s motive for wanting to win the ball game. Good teams often struggle because they don’t want to risk injury to their already established starters. Their thinking is that since we are already a good team, we don’t need to worry about winning exhibition games.

Betting a team who is going to play their starters much longer than the opposition is when I really make a move while betting the pre-season. Good players are going to see significant time against 3rd and 4th stringers who are just trying to make a roster spot. This is the ideal situation for the bettor as you have starting caliber players playing against no-names who won’t ever see action during a real game.

Another thing to consider is teams breaking in new offensive schemes. Since the new offense is unfamiliar to the players, they are likely to play longer in order to iron out the kinks in the new system. Watch these teams carefully and see how they are progressing at picking up the new offense. That’s why first year head coaches are also more adept to winning in the pre-season because the players have to learn their philosophies and schemes before the regular season. The end result is that the starting units will play longer. Finding situations where starting players are going to play much longer than the opposition’s starters is the biggest element I factor into my handicapping approach to the NFL pre-season. Motive and incentive is paramount.

Take a look at the best NFL Picks on the board tonight from Trev Rogers Sports Picks Network of the nations best sports handicappers.

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2009 College Football Predictions Virginia Tech Hokies

August 11, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

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2009 Virginia Tech Football Betting Odds: Over 9½ Wins +125 , Under 9½ Wins -165

Everyone in and around college football is predicting Virginia Tech to win the ACC Championship. In fact, the Hokies have been rated seventh in the country by the latest Pre-Season Coaches Poll that came out earlier this week. Last year, the Hokies were very young as they only returned 10 starters from 2007 but still found a way to not only win the ACC Championship game but also won a BCS Bowl game. With 16 returning starters coming back from a very good team last year, expectations in Hokie land are very high as they should be. However, if the Hokies are going to have a chance at a National Championship, the offense must improve as they have finished 99th or worse the past three seasons. Much of their offensive success will depend on their quarterback Tyrod Taylor who is finally the undisputed starter. He can run no doubt about it, but he has to be more efficient as a passer if he is going to carry this team to where they want to go. The defense returns seven starters and should be very good up front as they return three starting defensive lineman.

The question mark on the defensive side of the ball is at linebacker where they will be breaking in two new starters. All in all, this is going to be a very good team and I think they will win their third straight ACC Championship but I don’t think they are good enough to win it all. They could open the season with a loss against Alabama but the rest of their real tough games come at home. They play Nebraska, Miami, Boston College, North Carolina, and NC State all in Blacksburg. I will call for the Hokies to finish at 10-2 and predict them to go over the posted total of 9½ wins.

- Bet on VaTech to go Over/Under 9.5 regular season wins

- Bet on VaTech to win the ACC in 2009

- Bet on VaTech to win the 2009-2010 College Football National Championship

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Rutgers 2009 College Football Predictions

August 11, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

2009 Rutgers Football Betting Odds: Over 8 Wins -230 , Under 8 Wins +170

Rutgers may not have the most talent in the Big East but their schedule is favorable enough to make them a real contender to win the Big East Championship. They get Cincinnati, Pitt, South Florida, and West Virginia, the conference’s top teams, all at home. The biggest question mark surrounding this Rutgers squad is how they will replace quarterback Mike Teel and wide receiver Kenny Britt. Teel was one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in school history and two unknowns will battle for the starting job. Two fifth-year seniors, Domenic Natale and Jabu Lovelace are fighting for the opportunity to lead this team. Success at the quarterback position is going to play a large role in determining whether or not this team can win the Big East in ’09. The good news for whoever starts at QB is that the team’s top four leading rushers along with five returning starters on the offensive line are all back. The Scarlet Knights may rely on the ground game much more this season than in years past with a lack of experience at the quarterback position.

The defense only returns 6 starters but the emergence of middle linebacker Ryan D’Imperio has people believing that Rutgers could be very tough defensively. The defensive line also has great size and depth as well and should be very good against the run. The biggest concern on defense is at the corner spot. Sophomore David Rowe will have to step in and play well in order for this to be a dominant defense. After evaluating this team and looking at their schedule, I have them projected at finishing the regular season at 9-3. They play Howard, Florida International, Texas Southern, and Army outside of the Big East. Combine that will home games against all their toughest opponents and you will see Rutgers go over to the total of 8 regular season wins.

- Bet on Rutgers to go Over/Under 8 regular season wins

- Bet on Rutgers to win the Big East in 2009

- Bet on Rutgers to win the 2009-2010 College Football National Championship

Filed Under: NCAAF Betting News Tagged With: , ,
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