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Week 1 College Football Picks

August 31, 2009 By Trev Rogers Leave a Comment

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The official beginning of the 2009 football season is here with college football kicking off this Thursday night September 3rd. The top sports handicappers on TrevRogers.com are already releasing their top college football picks for week 1 of the college football. season.

Top football handicappers like Jim Feist, Wunderdog, Mr. East and Trev Rogers have winning selections up now for purchase. As always, it is a good idea to get their top plays early in the week while best football odds are available.

Thursday night’s kick off has some interesting match-ups as South Carolina and Steve Spurrier travel NC State. The Troy Trojans who play #1 Florida in week 2, open up at Bowling Green…..could they be looking ahead? The 3 other games for Thursday are North Texas vs. Ball State, Utah State vs. Utah and Oregon at notorious BCS buster Boise State.

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Week 1 College Football Odds

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Top 10 Fantasy Football Running Backs

August 30, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

1. Adrian Peterson:

Adrian Peterson is the consensus number one running back by all experts and is projected as the number one overall pick as well. Make no mistake about it, Peterson is an absolute stud and is only entering his third year. The third year is where most players really start to reach their full potential and I expect huge production out of Peterson this year. He finished third in scoring amongst all fantasy running backs but I see him reaching the top spot in 2009. He led the league in rushing with 1,760 yards and also in yards from scrimmage with over 1,800 yards total rushing. Peterson has a big, explosive offensive line to run behind and the Vikings have an added more talent up front. Another reason why I think AP is going to be the top back is that the Vikings will now have a legitimate passing game to keep opposing teams honest. The presence of Brett Favre is going to be great for Peterson’s production and the drafting of Percy Harvin gives the Vikings another playmaker for defenses to key on. In my mind, there’s no doubt that Peterson is the best back in football and his touchdown total should go way up this year as the offense will be much improved as a complete unit. If you get the first pick in your draft, take Peterson.

2. Michael Turner:

Michael Turner was on my radar last year as a great second running back for my fantasy team and boy did he produce. Turner who finally got the chance to be a starter after backing up LaDainian Tomlinson proved he is one of the league’s top backs. He finished second in scoring amongst all fantasy backs with 1,699 yards rushing and 17 touchdowns. I don’t expect a drop off with Turner at all as I think the Falcons offense is going to be even better than it was a year ago. Matt Ryan is only going to get better at the quarterback position and the addition of Tony Gonzalez gives defenses another key player to account for in the passing game. The only knock on Turner is his lack of receiving ability as he had only six catches but with the amount of carries he gets, he will rack up plenty of points for fantasy owners. In points per reception leagues, he may drop a little but I still like him as the number two fantasy back as he outshined LT last year after living in his shadow for five years. He’s the number one threat on this offense and should be a stud again this year.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew:

Maurice Jones-Drew is getting a lot of attention this year from fantasy experts as he is looking to prove he is worth the 32 million dollars the Jaguars are going to pay him over the next four years. Jones-Drew finished 9th amongst fantasy running backs in ’08 but his numbers seem bound to improve drastically as he will not be sharing the ball with anyone else now that Fred Taylor is gone. He rushed for 1,389 yards and 12 touchdowns on only 197 carries. There’s no doubt that Jones-Drew is the man in Jacksonville now and I expect him to get over 250 carries this year. That will lead to plenty of more rushing yards and more touchdowns as well. The other key factor that makes Jones-Drew a top tier fantasy back is that he is a great receiver out of the backfield. He led all running backs in receiving yards with 565 yards. I know Torry Holt is not the same player he was a few years ago but his presence should take some heat off of Jones-Drew. If a guy can put up the kind of numbers Jones-Drew did last year splitting time, just imagine what he can do as the full time back in Jacksonville. I’m projecting a big year from Maurice Jones-Drew.

4. DeAngelo Williams:

Believe it or not but DeAngelo Williams was the number one fantasy running back a year ago topping Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner in points scored. He had 20 total touchdowns and rushed for over 1,500 yards. Some fantasy experts are down on Williams because he does split carries with Jonathan Stewart and has only turned in one good season in his three years in the league but not me. I think this guy is an absolute stud and will be a top five back for sure. Even though he split time with Stewart, he still had 273 carries and Stewart has been hampered by injury thus far this pre-season. I think if Williams plays like he did last year, Stewart won’t be getting 40% of the carries like he did a year ago but it is a concern and that’s why I have him below Jones-Drew and Michael Turner. It is possible that Williams won’t repeat what he did last year but I still think he will have a big year and is worthy of the number four ranking of fantasy running backs.

5. Matt Forte:

Matt Forte was one of the biggest surprises of the fantasy football season in 2008. He finished fourth amongst all running backs in fantasy scoring as a ROOKIE and has all the tools to get better and better. Forte rushed for over 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns a year ago but was also a major threat in the Bears passing game. He caught 63 balls for 477 yards and also tacked on two receiving touchdowns. I look for Forte to improve upon his touchdown total as the signing of Jay Cutler is going to make the Bears offense much more potent. Forte will have a lot more opportunities to pound the ball into the end zone on the goal line because the Bears are going to score more points this year. There isn’t much not to like about this guy who is entering just his second season with an offense that has a legitimate quarterback who can stretch the field and keep defenses honest. In points per reception leagues, Forte is even more valuable because he is a great receiver and Cutler will definitely use him in the passing game. Forte is a top 5 runner in my book, no doubt about it.

6. Chris Johnson:

Chris Johnson was also another pleasant surprise as a rookie last year for fantasy owners. He rushed for 1,228 yards and nine touchdowns in his first year on just 251 carries. Johnson averaged a whopping 4.9 yards per carry and is in line for more work this season. Jeff Fischer has stated publicly that he wants to get the ball in Johnson’s hands as often as possible especially out in open space. This should cut into the production of Lendale White who split carries with Johnson a year ago. The only concern about Johnson is the fact that White might still get the goal line carries but there have been rumors that Johnson is in line to get more work in that area as well. The other thing I like about Johnson is that the Titans grabbed wide receiver Nate Washington to upgrade the passing game. Washington was a solid contributor in Pittsburgh and is another weapon for opposing defenses to key in on. All in all, this is a guy with tremendous speed and he has a ton of upside heading into his second year. He put up great numbers last year and if he gets more opportunities to run the ball and score this year, he’ll be a great fantasy running back.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson:

LaDainian Tomlinson believe it or not was somewhat of a disappointment last year to fantasy owners as he was the consensus number one overall pick. However, he was hampered by toe and groin injuries throughout the season which seemed to be the cause of his decline in fantasy production. Despite battling through the injuries, he still rushed for 1,110 yards and 11 touchdowns. It does seem that LT might be slowing down a bit as he has been pounding the rock for many years now. The word out of training camp is that he is 100% healthy and that will be the key for Tomlinson to be a top five back in 2009. I don’t think Sproles is going to be a threat to steal carries and this offense is still going to through Tomlinson as long as he is healthy. Tomlinson is a bit of risk as he is showing signs of wear and tear but I think he has at least one more good year left in him and is worthy of the number seven ranking of fantasy backs.

8. Steve Slaton:

Slaton is a guy I am extremely high on this year. As a rookie, he rushed for almost 1,300 yards and nine touchdowns on just 268 carries. There is no doubt that Slaton is the main man in Houston this year and he will be a major factor in a very good offense. I think Matt Schaub is primed to bust out and have a big year. Andre Johnson is one of the best receivers in football which takes attention away from Slaton and doesn’t allow defenses to stack the box with eight guys. Slaton is an explosive player on an explosive offense and entering his second year has tremendous potential. Slaton really came into his own late in the year rushing for over 100 yards in four of the last seven games of the season and averaged 4.8 yards per carry. He will get more of the work this year and thus more fantasy production. This guy is a potential stud and should be even better than a year ago.

9. Frank Gore:

Frank Gore didn’t fare as well as most fantasy owners thought he would last year as he only rushed for 1,036 yards and 6 touchdowns. However, Gore is a duel threat back as he caught 43 passes for 373 yards and two touchdowns. The biggest concern over the last few years with Gore has been his durability. In order for him to be a top ten back, he has got to stay on the field. The good news for potential Gore owners is that new offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye is going to run his offense through Gore. If he can hold up, he will have a ton of touches both as a runner and receiver. He’s the main man in San Francisco and if he can stay healthy, he will put up big numbers in Frisco this year. Another concern is the lack of playmakers around Gore. The addition of Michael Crabtree would help if he would just sign already but the 49ers are heading into the season as if Crabtree won’t be there. Defenses will stack the box against Gore but that is nothing new. If they can find consistent quarterback play to take heat off Gore, he has the potential to be a top 10 back.

10. Brandon Jacobs:

Brandon Jacobs could be the steal of the second round in most fantasy football drafts. In just 13 games he ran for 1,089 yards and 15 touchdowns. With the departure of Derrick Ward, he is the main man in New York and will get a lot more than 219 carries a year ago. Jacobs averaged 5.0 yards per carry in ’08 and with a bigger workload his numbers could explode this season. The biggest concern for Jacobs is that the Giants lack a big play receiver. They need Steve Smith and rookie Hakeem Nicks to step up in order to make defenses worry about the pass and not just focus on stopping Jacobs. All in all, Jacobs is in the prime of his career and has proven that he is an absolute stud even while splitting carries. The departure of Ward is huge for Jacobs’ owners as I see him improving upon his yards and touchdowns from a year ago especially if he plays in all 16 games. If he can stay healthy, he has potential to be a premier fantasy back

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Must draft wide receivers for fantasy football

August 30, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

1. Larry Fitzgerald:

Larry Fitzgerald proved last year that he is the best wide receiver in the game in my opinion. He was tied for the league in receiving touchdowns with 12 and caught 96 balls for 1,431 yards. Fitzgerald is still very young and is only going to continue to get better. The Cardinals re-signed quarterback Kurt Warner which means great quarterback play to get Fitzgerald the ball. Warner and Fitzgerald are arguably the best QB-WR tandem in football outside of Brady and Moss. The one concern is that Anquan Boldin will be lined up opposite of Fitzgerald taking away receptions and touchdowns but that wasn’t much of an issue last year. Fitzgerald will still get his as he is still Warner’s go to guy. The Cardinals also spent the off-season upgrading the run game by drafting running back Chris Wells. With defenses having to account for a solid running attack, Fitzgerald should have more one on one situations to exploit. I’m looking for another big year out of Fitzgerald as he plays on one of the most potent offenses in football. Another reason why I love Fitzgerald so much is that he will be playing a very weak schedule in the NFC West and should torch defenses week in and week out.

2. Andre Johnson:

Andre Johnson is another receiver that is likely to go late in the first round of your draft and I won’t argue with that. This guy is a stud especially in point per reception leagues. He snagged 115 balls for 1,575 yards and 8 touchdowns. Johnson will get his yards but the one concern is his lack of touchdowns. Tight end Owen Daniels is the main threat in the end zone for the Houston Texans offense but I expect more TD’s for Johnson this year. A big key for Johnson to rack up more touchdowns and yards will be whether or not quarterback Matt Schaub is healthy and playing well. Schaub has potential to be a very good quarterback and I think he will finally put it all together this year barring any injuries. This is a potent offense and with Slaton pounding the rock, Johnson too could see less double coverage much like Fitzgerald. The main thing to remember is this team is going to score as they have the skill guys to do so and I think Johnson will be a big part of that.

3. Randy Moss:

With the loss of Tom Brady a year ago, Randy Moss’ numbers went way down from his record breaking 2007 season. However, Brady is back and appears ready for action and because of that don’t be surprised is Moss emerges as the number one receiver in fantasy football. Even without Brady, he put up decent numbers with 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns. I still think Moss has another great year in him as he is getting up there in age. With Brady back, the offense seems ready to roll. Moss is now entering his third year in New England and has a great grasp of the offense. I think that will be a big key for Moss to put up huge numbers again. If Brady stays healthy, look out! Moss was very good last year without him but I expect his yards and touchdowns to go way up if Brady can avoid injury. The one concern is that the Patriots don’t have much of a run game but that could be a good thing as they might just let Brady sling the ball all over the field like he did in ’07. Wes Welker is a solid number two receiver and demands defenses’ attention which opens up space for Moss down the field. I like Moss and I almost put him as my number two wide receiver but his age is a bit of a concern.

4. Calvin Johnson:

Calvin Johnson put up great numbers even though he had Dan Orlovsky and others throwing him the ball. Not to mention that there really weren’t any other playmakers on offense for defenses to key in on. Despite all that, he was tied for the league in touchdown receptions with 12 and caught 78 balls for 1,331 yards. This year the quarterback position is much more settled as either Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford will be throwing the ball to Johnson. Kevin Smith is a decent back who should improve as well to take some heat off Johnson. With the supporting cast going to be improved, I don’t see any reason why Johnson’s production will decline. He is a freak of an athlete and is entering his third year, the year where most wide receivers find their stride. I like Johnson a lot but I have him slotted at four because we still have to remember he is on the Lions.

5. Greg Jennings:

Greg Jennings seems to be getting better and better each year. Last season he caught 80 balls for 1,292 yards and 9 touchdowns. His touchdown numbers took a backslide from his 12 TD catches in ’07 but that was because Jennings had to share the ball with Donald Driver. However, this year Jennings has really taken a huge step above Driver as Driver is getting up there in age. He will be the go to guy down the field and in the end zone. I expect him to grab near a dozen touchdowns this year especially if Aaron Rodgers continues to progress. Speaking of Rodgers, let’s not forget that this guy put up huge numbers as his first year as a starter and is moving up the charts of fantasy football quarterbacks. One can only think that Rodgers and Jennings are both going to get better in their second year together. Jennings has averaged almost 16 yards per catch in his career and has tremendous upside. I see the Green Bay offense scoring plenty of points and if Ryan Grant can play to his potential at the running back position, Jennings will have less double teams in his face. I think Jennings is a solid top five fantasy receiver.

6. Roddy White:

Even with a rookie quarterback in Matt Ryan, Roddy White finished as the sixth best fantasy wide receiver a year ago. He was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,382 yards. However, he scored just 7 touchdowns as he was the only receiving threat for the Falcons in the red zone and Michael Turner was an absolute beast down near the goal line. White is entering the prime of his career and I think he and Matt Ryan are only going to get better as a tandem. Ryan proved he is a special player in his rookie season and as long as he keeps on playing well, White will have another big year. Another big key is that the Falcons have added Tony Gonzalez which gives them a second receiving option to keep opposing defenses from just keying in on White. This will be a well-balanced team with Turner running the ball and White will get plenty of opportunities to make plays. I like him right here at the number six spot and he could even finish higher if he can improve upon his touchdown total from a year ago.

7. Steve Smith:

Last year the Carolina Panthers had one of the best rushing attacks in football and absolutely hammered the ball down people’s throats. Despite all the yards and touchdowns racked up by DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Steve Smith recorded his second best fantasy season in his career while only playing in 14 games. Smith caught 78 balls for 1,421 yards and 6 touchdowns. He finished fifth amongst fantasy wide receivers and if he can stay healthy, I expect him to have another solid year. The lack of touchdowns is a concern and that’s why I have Smith down a couple slots than most experts. However, he will stretch the field and rack up big time yardage as opponents will really have to focus on stopping the most dangerous rushing attack in football. Jake Delhomme played very well last year and if he can play to his potential, Smith will be an elite fantasy receiver. I like Smith but because of the lack of touchdowns, he doesn’t make my top 5 wide receivers.

8. Reggie Wayne:

Reggie Wayne was a bit of a disappointment for fantasy owners last year as he finished 14th amongst fantasy wide receivers. He had only 1,145 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns. Wayne is still a very safe pick as he has topped over 1,000 yards receiving in each of the last five seasons. Last year was a down year but I expect him to creep back up into the top 10 in 2009. Anthony Gonzalez should emerge as a solid number two receiver to keep defenses from constantly double covering Wayne which was a major cause of his decline in numbers a year ago. Also, the rushing attack should be better now that Joseph Addai is healthy and the Colts have added a dynamic rookie running back in Donald Brown to the roster. Wayne is a solid player and steady producer. He may not be a top 5 wide receiver but you can be assured he will be in the top 10 with low risk. All in all, I expect Wayne to re-emerge this year as the offense will be better in my opinion. And you can’t argue with a receiver who has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball.

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Oklahoma Sooners College Football Betting Odds for 2009

August 19, 2009 By Trev Rogers Leave a Comment

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2009 College Football Odds Oklahoma Sooners: Under 10 Wins +115 , Over 10 Wins -155

- Oklahoma is listed at +200 to win the BIG 12 in 2009
- Oklahoma is listed at +500 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet pays out $650
- Sam Bradford is listed at +275 to win the Heisman Trophy

After yet another disappointing BCS Championship loss, the Oklahoma Sooners are being projected to finish third by most experts in the final BCS standings. The offense returns Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford which should allow the Oklahoma offense to pick up right where they left off in the Big 12 scoring points at will. The offensive line only returns one starter which is the biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball. They will rebuild and rely on some young but talented players to replace the departed starters from a year ago. At the skill positions, Bradford has plenty of weapons. He has two 1,000 yard rushers in DeMarco Murray and Chris Brown. Tight end Jermaine Greshman is a potential All-American and will be Bradford’s go to guy in the red zone. Ryan Broyles has potential to be the big play receiver that Oklahoma needs if they want to be as efficient as they were last year at scoring points.

Defensively, the Sooners return nine starters and should be very difficult to score on. They will be led by All-American defensive tackle Gerald McCoy who will be flanked by plenty of speed rushers on the outside. The secondary should also be a strength with two great lockdown corners in Dominique Franks and Brian Jackson. This is a close call for me as the Sooners have to play Texas, at Kansas, at Nebraska, and at home against Oklahoma State. I see them falling to the Longhorns but should be able to win the other three games. I advise not betting this as the Sooners could slip in one of the other games to put them at 10-2 but I will forecast an 11-1 regular season. I’ll go over the posted total of 10 wins.

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2009 College Football Prediction Texas Longhorns

August 19, 2009 By Trev Rogers Leave a Comment

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Texas Longhorns College Football Odds: Over 10 wins -200 Under 10 wins +150

- Texas is listed at +160 to win the BIG 12 in 2009
- Texas is listed at +650 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet pays out $650
- Colt McCoy is listed at +275 to win the Heisman Trophy

Texas is ready for a National Title in 2009 after being ousted out of the Big 12 Championship game despite beating Oklahoma head to head and this team is as talented as ever. They return sixteen starters, nine on offense and seven on defense. Most importantly is that Heisman Trophy candidate Colt McCoy is back for his senior season. McCoy is on a mission to win a National Championship and he will get help from an experience offensive line that returns four starters from a year ago. The Longhorns are looking for a consistent running back however and they have a plethora of talent to choose from as many as six players have a shot at earning carries. The run game will have to better to take pressure of McCoy in order for this team to win it all. Jordan Shipley is the best returning receiver and will be McCoy’s go to guy as he had over 1,000 yards receiving in ’08.

The loss of defensive end Brian Orakpo is a big one but Texas has the power to reload at any position especially under coordinator Will Muschamp. Texas started two freshmen at safety last season in Earl Thomas and Aaron Williams. With a year under their belt, the secondary should be a solid against the pass happy Big 12 offenses. Roddrick Muckelroy is the only returning linebacker but he is an absolute workhorse and a great run stuffer. The only game I can foresee Texas losing this year is to Oklahoma or at Oklahoma State. I think they will beat both of them and at worst go 1-1 in those two games. The schedule sets up nice for an 11-1 season if not a perfect 12-0. I’ll go over the total of 10 wins for the Texas Longhorns.

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Favre Signs with Vikings and Stirs up Odds

August 19, 2009 By Trev Rogers 1 Comment

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Brett Favre signed a one year deal with the Minnesota Vikings Tuesday morning worth reported anywhere from 10.5-12 million dollars. Many experts agree with the presence of Favre, the Minnesota Vikings are now the team to beat in the NFC North. After the news broke, odds makers scurried to change their proposition odds on the Vikings to win their division and the Super Bowl. At most sportsbooks, the Vikings were posted at anywhere from 18-1 to 24-1 to win the Super Bowl. They have dropped to 14-1 at BetUs.com since this morning and some books even have them even lower.

With Favre at the helm, this team definitely has to be the favorite to win the NFC North. Most books have taken their odds for them to win the division off the board until they can find an appropriate number. If Favre is healthy and can play like he did in the early parts of 2008 this team is a serious threat in the NFC North. They struggled at the quarterback position with Gus Frerotte and Tavarous Jackson under center despite having a great running game and stout defense.

The addition of Favre makes Adrian Peterson even more dangerous as defenses won’t be able to simply stack the box with eight and nine man fronts. Bernard Berrian put up nice numbers last year despite the lack of consistent quarterback play and if he is healthy will be Favre’s big play threat down the field. I expect Adrian Peterson to have a big year behind a great offensive line and a legitimate passing game to keep opponents from just focusing on him.

I still like the Chicago Bears to have a nice season but the division title is going to be hard fought down to wire if Favre plays like he did two years ago. I still think Favre has to prove that he can still be an effective quarterback despite his age and recent health issues so I am not as gitty as other experts are on the Vikings. I’ll project them as the favorite but I still think Chicago has a great chance at winning the division. Remember, Favre threw just 22 touchdowns last year and 22 interceptions. I think this is a definite upgrade at the quarterback position but I’ll believe all the hype when Favre proves he’s still go it in September when the regular season starts.

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2009 College Football Prediction Michigan Wolverines

August 14, 2009 By Ryan Nox 4 Comments

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2009 Michigan College Football Betting Odds: Over 6 Wins -200, Under 6 Wins +150

- Michigan is listed at +1200 to win the BIG 10 in 2009
- Michigan is listed at +12,500 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet pays out $1,250!

Michigan is coming off a horrendous season in which the Wolverines went 3-9 in Rich Rodriguez’s first season. Many expect Michigan to make it to a Bowl Game this year but I think Rich Rod is still a season or two away from post-season play. The Wolverines return 15 starters from last year, ten of which are on offense. The biggest issue was that Michigan didn’t have a quarterback that could effectively run the spread option offense that Rodriguez employs. A lot of people expect freshman, Tate Forcier to be the guy who can turn things around but depending on a freshman in the Big 10 is a little scary.

Meanwhile, the defense lacks depth and experience. Three starting defensive lineman are gone and youngsters such as true freshman William Campbell will be counted on to contribute right away. The linebacking corp is the strength of this unit with Obi Ezeb, Jonas Mouton, and converted safety Stevie Brown all return. The secondary also will depend on youth as well. All in all, I see Michigan with the inexperience they have at quarterback and on defense going at best 5-7 this year. They play at Michigan State, at Illinois, and at Wisconsin, not to mention two tough home games that they won’t be expected to win against Ohio State and Penn State. Throw in a non-conference game against an improved Notre Dame team and you’re looking at a losing season. I’ll take the under 6 games and the hefty juice at +150 for the Wolverines in ’09.

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2009 College Football Predictions Ohio State Buckeyes

August 14, 2009 By Ryan Nox 1 Comment

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2009 Ohio State College Football Betting Odds: Over 9½ Wins -115 , Under 9½ Wins -125

- Ohio State is listed at +150 to win the BIG 10 in 2009
- Ohio State is listed at +1,000 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet pays out $1,000!

Ohio State lost a massive amount of talent to the NFL Draft this past April and a lot of young players will have to step up in order for them to contend for a fifth straight Big Ten Championship. They only return five starters on offense with the biggest losses coming at the skill positions. Chris Wells was a tremendous contributor pounding the rock last year but sophomore Boom Herron is a speedster who should have a nice year for the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes also lost their two top receivers in Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline. However, Ohio State still has talent and speed at the position to take over for the departed receivers.

Defensively, the biggest losses came at the linebacker position. The defensive line with stud Thaddeus Gibson should be the best in the big ten and the secondary, even though they lost All-American Malcolm Jenkins, returns two starters should be solid as well. The three toughest games for Ohio State will be USC at home, at Penn State, and at home against Iowa. I think if they can win one of those games, they will cruise to a 10-2 regular season. The rest of the games are very winnable. With that being said I’ll go with the over 9½ wins for the Buckeyes.

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Spotting Incentive to win is key to betting NFL Pre-Season

August 13, 2009 By Ryan Nox Leave a Comment

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The most critical part of betting the NFL Pre-Season point spread is uncovering each team’s incentives to win the ball game. As a bettor, I want my money on the team who really wants to win. Therefore, the first thing I try to uncover is how long each team’s starting players are going to play. This can be a tricky aspect of handicapping the pre-season but is absolutely vital. I scour the local newspapers in all of the team’s hometowns looking for an edge. Often the head coach will flat out tell the media just how long his starters are going to play. The coaches and players comments toward the game are important as well as interviews can unveil a team’s determination to win the game.

Certain coaches can’t stand to lose even if the game means nothing to them at all. They will play their starters longer especially if the team struggled last season and the coach is on the hot seat. Betting on bad teams can be very profitable in the pre-season as they are more likely to play their starters longer in order to improve and create a culture of winning right from the get go. You have to understand each team’s motive for wanting to win the ball game. Good teams often struggle because they don’t want to risk injury to their already established starters. Their thinking is that since we are already a good team, we don’t need to worry about winning exhibition games.

Betting a team who is going to play their starters much longer than the opposition is when I really make a move while betting the pre-season. Good players are going to see significant time against 3rd and 4th stringers who are just trying to make a roster spot. This is the ideal situation for the bettor as you have starting caliber players playing against no-names who won’t ever see action during a real game.

Another thing to consider is teams breaking in new offensive schemes. Since the new offense is unfamiliar to the players, they are likely to play longer in order to iron out the kinks in the new system. Watch these teams carefully and see how they are progressing at picking up the new offense. That’s why first year head coaches are also more adept to winning in the pre-season because the players have to learn their philosophies and schemes before the regular season. The end result is that the starting units will play longer. Finding situations where starting players are going to play much longer than the opposition’s starters is the biggest element I factor into my handicapping approach to the NFL pre-season. Motive and incentive is paramount.

Take a look at the best NFL Picks on the board tonight from Trev Rogers Sports Picks Network of the nations best sports handicappers.

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2009 College Football Predictions North Carolina State

August 13, 2009 By Trev Rogers Leave a Comment

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2009 North Carolina State Football Odds: Over 8 Wins +170 , Under 8 Wins -230

- NC State is listed at +750 win the ACC in 2009
- NC State is listed at +10,000 to win the BCS Championship. That means a $100 bet on NC State pays out $10k if they brought home the title!

After winning their last four ACC games, NC State made it to a bowl game last season only to come up short against Rutgers. A lot of people think this can be a surprise team in the ACC Atlantic Division but they face a very tough schedule which may deter them from making it to the ACC title game. The Wolf Pack return 14 starters, who are looking to build on their late season success from a year ago and make a run at the conference championship. The offense should be able to score plenty of points especially with sophomore quarterback Russell Wilson who was first team All-Conference a year ago as a true freshman. They have two very capable backs who should have big holes to run through as the offensive line has shown flashes of dominance. They are a veteran group but depth up front is really the only concern on this side of the ball. Defensively, NC State is going to be extremely good up front as all four of their starting defensive linemen are seniors. Junior Nate Irving is an absolute stud at linebacker and will make plays all over the field.

The defense has two solid corners returning but the biggest concern on this unit is at the safety position. Senior Clem Johnson has the most experience but is a little injury prone. Sophomore Jimmaul Simmons will be asked to start at the free safety position. Overall, this is a team with a lot of talent and could make a push at the division title due to the abilities of their star quarterback. I think it will be a good year in Raleigh and I predict an 8-4 regular season for the Wolf Pack. Thus, I have them landing right on the posted number of 8 regular season wins.

Stay up to date the entire 2009 college football season with Trev Rogers Sports Picks Network of College Football Picks and live College Football Odds.

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