Free MLB Pick with the LA Dodgers won Monday Night

As I have mentioned here many times, betting trends are a funny thing in sports. You just really need to know when is the best time to go with a trend or against one. Last night we went with the trends as the LA Dodgers cashed the ticket for another free baseball picks winner. Unfortunately, my 3rd MLB “INSIDER” selection of the season lost Monday night as the Red Sox vs. Orioles fell well short of going over the total of 10 runs.

My free baseball pick for Tuesday June 30th is the Angels vs. Rangers to go OVER the posted total of 10 runs

Free Sports Pick Record YTD:

MLB: 7-4-1

Free Baseball Pick and Top Rated “INSIDER” winner for Monday

The David Price “OVER” train decided to stop on Sunday as my free MLB pick took the “L” on the Marlins vs. TB TB Rays “Over”. My free baseball winner for Monday June 29th is one that will be easily filed into the “Captain Obvious” section when you see the following betting trend:

UBALDO JIMENEZ recent starts vs. LA DODGERS

Date Opponent Score Line Total Result Dec IP R ER H HR BB SO Opp Starter
5/27/2009 LA DODGERS 6-8 -140 9.5 Loss,Over L 6.7 5 4 9 0 2 5 KERSHAW(L)
4/25/2009 LA DODGERS 5-6 -135 10.5 Loss,Over L 4 6 6 8 0 4 3 MCDONALD(R)
4/19/2009 at LA DODGERS 2-14 +105 9.5 Loss,Over L 4.3 7 7 7 0 4 3 MCDONALD(R)


Ok, the Dodgers simply own Jimenez. That normally would not be enough for me to pull the trigger, but these trends are pretty overwhelming. Also, add in the fact that the Dodgers have lost 4 of 5 games, 2 straight at home, and we have a solid situation for Randy Wolf to get the victory for us tonight.

MLB Monday Night Free Pick: LA Dodgers -125

Free Sports Pick Record YTD:
MLB: 6-4-1

After passing on Sunday with a premium MLB pick, Monday night provides us with my 3rd MLB “INSIDER” selection of the season going off at 7pm(est). This “Top Rated” selection is available now!

Vegas likes Virginia Tech and Florida State to win ACC in 2009

The ACC is shaping up to be a very tight race as there will likely be three teams ranked in the top 25 polls from the conference. Bookmakers have the ACC pegged as a two horse race posting both Virginia Tech and Florida State at +250, making them co-favorites to take home the championship. However, the best value might be found in Georgia Tech who is listed at +700. In a wide open race, this could be a team who sneaks up on people. The odds makers seem to be overlooking the Yellow Jackets as they have posted both Clemson and Miami ahead of them at +500 and +550 respectively.

Most experts are expecting big things from the Virginia Tech Hokies and Las Vegas sports books seem to agree. The success of Va Tech is going to be whether or not Tyrod Taylor can step in as he is finally “the man” at quarterback in Blacksburg. We all know he can run but he needs to prove he can throw the ball in the spread offense. Last year he threw two touchdown passes and was picked off seven times. If he can step up and be the player he is expected to be, the ACC title will be the Hokies for another year. Virginia Tech will be able to pound the ball down opposing team’s throats with Darren Evans, who rushed for over 1,200 yards last year, and a superb offensive line. As usual, the defense should be sound as well. They will miss cornerback Macho Harris and are inexperienced at the linebacker position but I expect a Frank Beamer coached team to be able to find a way to get the job done.

Florida State is another team that is battling with possible NCAA sanctions but if Bobby Bowden can get this group to worry about things on the field, they could be very competitive in this league. The offense has potential but Christian Ponder has to be much more consistent then last season. Receivers Greg Carr and Preston Parker will be missed but there is plenty of speed returning to help Ponder out. The offensive line is full of returning starters which should keep Ponder well protected. The defense is the bigger question mark for the Noles in ’09. They have speed but are extremely young and inexperienced. I look for FSU to make a title run but ultimately I believe the Hokies are just a hair bit better.

Georgia Tech is a team that could be dangerous in this conference and challenge Virginia Tech and Florida State. ACC Player of the Year, Jonathan Dwyer is back to lead a very potent running attack. The wide receiver core will be better and if Josh Nesbitt can raise his completion percentage from 44% a year ago, this could be a very good offense. The defensive line is the only question mark on this team. If they can find a way to stop the run with youngsters, this team can make a run. And you have to give credit to head coach Paul Johnson who proved his offense is not just a gimmick that would never work at a BCS school.

College Football Odds To Win ACC Conference 2009:

1. Boston College +8000

2. Clemson +500

3. Duke +6000

4. Florida State +250

5. Georgia Tech +700

6. Maryland +2500

7. Miami +550

8. North Carolina +600

9. North Carolina State +800

10. Virginia +2500

11. Virginia Tech +250

12. Wake Forest +1400

Sunday MLB Winner plus I bitch about Saturday

Saturday is perfect example of why people always tell me that I am crazy for being a professional sports handicapper. My free pick yesterday was the Phillies vs. Toronto to go OVER the posted total of 10 runs. Man was this pick looking good…..especially with the bases loaded and 1 out in the 8th inning as the Phillies were already up 10-0. All we need is a sacrifice fly and the “W” is in the bank…did not happen. The Phillies ended up leaving 5 players in scoring position for the game, leaving us with the dreaded “push”.

Onto my premium selection for Saturday, the SF Giants with Barry Zito as my MLB “Dog of the Month”. I actually stopped watching the game as the Giants took a 2 run lead into the bottom of the ninth…..we all know what happened next. Customers tell me, you might as well just lose by 10 runs, because a loss is a loss. I 100% disagree! The SF Giants +130 was the correct play yesterday. The odds of a 3 run rally for the Brewers were extremely low, but it happened.

My free MLB pick for Sunday June 28th:
Take the Marlins vs. TB Rays to go OVER the posted total of 9.5 runs

Free Pick Record YTD:
MLB 6-3-1

I will pass today on a premium MLB selection, but make sure to check out the great MLB Picks for today from my handicapper network.

2-0 Friday Sets Up A Big MLB Picks Weekend

I received a few emails and even a live Google chat comment last night concerning my free pick Friday with Houston Astros going up against Justin Verlander and the red hot Detroit Tigers. As I told the doubters, just sit back watch the ticket cash. The Astros win pulls my MLB free picks record to 7-2 YTD.

My premium selection for Friday night was the Twins vs. Cardinals UNDER 9 runs, which won with absolute ease!

Free Sports Picks Record YTD:

MLB: 7-2 +473 units

My free pick for Saturday is the Phillies vs. Blue Jays to go over the posted total of 10 runs.

My MLB premium selection for Saturday June 27th will be up around 1pm(est). Visit MLB Picks to see my top selections when they are available

Astros Will End Tigers 7 Game Win Streak Tonight

Ok, I am finally back home after a week of traveling. My last free pick won with ease Wednesday night as we bet the Chicago White-Sox to cash the ticket over the LA Dodgers. Like I mentioned on Wednesday, some times betting trends are a signal to go the other way as we saw every trend in the book pointing to the Dodgers and we ignored them all to victory.

My Friday MLB Free Picks selection will be the Houston Astros +105 to end the Detroit Tigers 7 game winning streak.

MLB Free Pick Record YTD:
6-2 +373 units

My premium MLB betting selection will be up at 4:15pm(est). See my MLB Picks now.

2009 NFL team win totals released by Sportsbook.com

Since the calendar hasn’t yet turned to July, it may seem early to start thinking about the NFL, but the oddsmakers are always ahead of the game. This week Sportsbook.com posted win totals for all 32 teams for the upcoming 2009 season. It’s a bit early to start deciding which overs and unders are playable – although I’m sure fans of particular teams have their own opinion on their team’s line – but it’s never too early to compare the lines various historical stats, including how they compare to last year’s totals, to how many games each team won last year, and to each team’s 2008 point differential.

The first summary stat we can look at is the average for each division. There is a pretty wide range here, of two wins between the strongest and weakest divisions. The highest average is the NFC East, coming in at an impressive 9.13 wins per team, a .571 W% for the division. And when you consider each team plays six of their 16 games against other NFC East teams, that’s really saying that the East is expected to win 61% of their games out of the division, which is rather incredible. On the other end of the spectrum are both the AFC and NFC Wests, coming in at 7.13 wins each. It’s the second straight year that the NFC West has been at the bottom; this season they mostly have the Rams, with their total of 5.5, to thank for that.

That’s low, but it’s not the lowest; as you’ve probably already guessed, that honor goes to the Lions, expected to win just five games after last year’s 0-16. For the second consecutive year the Patriots lead the way, with a total of 11.5. That’s actually down half a win from last year; obviously they weren’t quite as successful in ’08 as they were in ’07.

The team that saw the biggest change in their over/under from last year’s listed number was the Falcons. Last year the oddsmakers were incredibly down on Atlanta, listing them at just 4.5 wins, easily the lowest in the league. But clearly their shocking ’08 season, finishing the year 11-5, changed things a bit, because this year Vegas thinks they’re a .500 team, putting their total at eight wins. That may seem a bit low compared to 11, but it’s worth pointing out that last year’s team was fortunate, with their point differential only suggesting that they should’ve won nine or 10 games.

That three win differential between last year’s record and their 2009 O/U actually isn’t the biggest drop in the league; that distinction was given to the Dolphins. Miami surprised a lot of people last year, finishing 11-5 and winning the tough AFC East. The oddsmakers, however, are not believers, listing the 2009 squad at just seven wins. Indeed, that struck me as surprisingly low. But, again, Miami wasn’t really a .688 team last year, which is the winning percentage they finished with; their point differential, and thus Pythagorean record, indicated a winning percentage of just .550. So, once again, the Dolphins will have to prove some people wrong.

But point differential doesn’t explain all the discrepancies between 2008 record and 2009 win total. Like the Dolphins, Baltimore had a surprisingly successful year, finishing the season at 11-5. But unlike Miami, the Ravens actually had a point differential to support that gaudy record. By outscoring their opponents by 141 points during the regular season, Baltimore actually would’ve been expected to win nearly 12 games; their 11 wins were no fluke. Despite that, Vegas is expecting some serious regression from them in 2009, as their total has been set at a surprisingly low 8.5.

The team expected to improve by the most is the Lions, which was inevitable since there’s no way to go but up after a winless season. The second biggest difference is also predictable, with the Chiefs expected to go from a two win team to something in the neighborhood of 6-10.

The one problem with these totals is the high juice, which averages out at -115 for each side. But if you have a strong opinion on one team, it’s probably worth taking action now, since these totals have been known to move a good deal, especially the juice, between now and Week 1.

Make sure you have the best NFL Picks information for the 2009 season by taking advantage of the best sports handicapping network on the internet at TrevRogers.com

Free Baseball Winner for Wednesday

I am still traveling, so I apologize for not being able to update on a daily basis this week. My MLB free picks record stands at 5-2 YTD.

Wednesday night I am going against some serious betting trends. The Dodgers are visiting the Chicago White-sox. The Dodgers are 20-4 YTD when the game total is 9-9.5 runs, 9-2 when a road total is 9-9.5 runs and 31-17 against a right handed pitcher. With all that being sad, my free pick tonight is Gavin Floyd and the Chi-Sox -119.

I am passing again on a premium selection as I am traveling until Friday. Please see the best sports picks anywhere on the internet for tonight from my network of to sports handicappers.

SF Giants win Sunday - Monday MLB Free Pick Ready

My MLB Free Picks moved to 4-1 on the season as Barry Zito continued his turnaround season on Sunday leading the SF Giants to a victory over the Texas Rangers.

I am actually going to bump my free picks record to 5-1 since last week I told you the LA Dodgers would take 2 of 3 games from the LA Angels over the weekend.

I am still traveling this week, so I will pass for the third straight day on a premium selection. My free baseball selection for Monday is the LA Angels -135 over the Colorado Rockies.

Sunday Free MLB Betting Pick

Another free pick cashed the ticket Saturday night with the TB Rays defeating Johan Santana and the NY Mets. That moves my MLB free picks record to 3-1 YTD. I did not release a premium pick Saturday and will also pass on Sunday as I am traveling.

Sunday MLB Free Pick:
SF Giants (SP-Zito) +120 vs. Texas Rangers.
Home team going for the sweep, as always we back the home team folks. Take Barry Zito and the Giants +120.

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