Since the calendar hasn’t yet turned to July, it may seem early to start thinking about the NFL, but the oddsmakers are always ahead of the game. This week Sportsbook.com posted win totals for all 32 teams for the upcoming 2009 season. It’s a bit early to start deciding which overs and unders are playable – although I’m sure fans of particular teams have their own opinion on their team’s line – but it’s never too early to compare the lines various historical stats, including how they compare to last year’s totals, to how many games each team won last year, and to each team’s 2008 point differential.
The first summary stat we can look at is the average for each division. There is a pretty wide range here, of two wins between the strongest and weakest divisions. The highest average is the NFC East, coming in at an impressive 9.13 wins per team, a .571 W% for the division. And when you consider each team plays six of their 16 games against other NFC East teams, that’s really saying that the East is expected to win 61% of their games out of the division, which is rather incredible. On the other end of the spectrum are both the AFC and NFC Wests, coming in at 7.13 wins each. It’s the second straight year that the NFC West has been at the bottom; this season they mostly have the Rams, with their total of 5.5, to thank for that.
That’s low, but it’s not the lowest; as you’ve probably already guessed, that honor goes to the Lions, expected to win just five games after last year’s 0-16. For the second consecutive year the Patriots lead the way, with a total of 11.5. That’s actually down half a win from last year; obviously they weren’t quite as successful in ’08 as they were in ’07.
The team that saw the biggest change in their over/under from last year’s listed number was the Falcons. Last year the oddsmakers were incredibly down on Atlanta, listing them at just 4.5 wins, easily the lowest in the league. But clearly their shocking ’08 season, finishing the year 11-5, changed things a bit, because this year Vegas thinks they’re a .500 team, putting their total at eight wins. That may seem a bit low compared to 11, but it’s worth pointing out that last year’s team was fortunate, with their point differential only suggesting that they should’ve won nine or 10 games.
That three win differential between last year’s record and their 2009 O/U actually isn’t the biggest drop in the league; that distinction was given to the Dolphins. Miami surprised a lot of people last year, finishing 11-5 and winning the tough AFC East. The oddsmakers, however, are not believers, listing the 2009 squad at just seven wins. Indeed, that struck me as surprisingly low. But, again, Miami wasn’t really a .688 team last year, which is the winning percentage they finished with; their point differential, and thus Pythagorean record, indicated a winning percentage of just .550. So, once again, the Dolphins will have to prove some people wrong.
But point differential doesn’t explain all the discrepancies between 2008 record and 2009 win total. Like the Dolphins, Baltimore had a surprisingly successful year, finishing the season at 11-5. But unlike Miami, the Ravens actually had a point differential to support that gaudy record. By outscoring their opponents by 141 points during the regular season, Baltimore actually would’ve been expected to win nearly 12 games; their 11 wins were no fluke. Despite that, Vegas is expecting some serious regression from them in 2009, as their total has been set at a surprisingly low 8.5.
The team expected to improve by the most is the Lions, which was inevitable since there’s no way to go but up after a winless season. The second biggest difference is also predictable, with the Chiefs expected to go from a two win team to something in the neighborhood of 6-10.
The one problem with these totals is the high juice, which averages out at -115 for each side. But if you have a strong opinion on one team, it’s probably worth taking action now, since these totals have been known to move a good deal, especially the juice, between now and Week 1.
Make sure you have the best NFL Picks information for the 2009 season by taking advantage of the best sports handicapping network on the internet at TrevRogers.com
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